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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Fort Worth Texas
619 am CDT Tuesday Oct 21 2014

an upper ridge will shift east of North Texas during the next 24
hours while an upper trough slowly approaches from the west.
Increasing high clouds are expected as the trough draws
nearer...otherwise overall weather conditions should remain
fairly quiet.

At the surface...a high pressure ridge centered just east of the
region will provide weak southeasterly low level flow. Surface winds
have become calm at most locations...which when combined with clear
skies and dewpoints in the upper 50s has led to some patchy fog.
Dewpoint depressions remain sufficient in the metroplex to
preclude fog development...and we will continue to leave out the
mention of fog at Dallas-Fort Worth area terminals. The exception
will be gky where a tempo for 5sm should suffice. Otherwise kact
will likely experience MVFR visibilities until 15z. Increasing
clouds tonight should limit additional fog development in the
extended portion of the tafs.



Previous discussion... /issued 315 am CDT Tuesday Oct 21 2014/
another unseasonably warm day is in store for North Texas as upper
level high pressure remains the over the region. Although the best
Gulf moisture will continue to ride up the Rio Grande Valley...the
combination of shallow moisture...a light wind and a mostly clear
sky will result in some patchy fog across most of North Texas this
morning. The fog could be dense in a few locations for a short
time. However...the visibility at most locations should remain
above 1 mile so we will not issue a dense fog advisory at this
time. We will monitor visibility trends closely through sunrise.

The upper level ridge axis will translate slowly east tonight
through Wednesday as a short wave trough approaches from the
Desert Southwest. Weak large scale forcing and elevated moisture
will bring a slight chance of showers and isolated
thunder...mainly north of the Interstate 20 corridor Wednesday
night and Thursday. Since deep moisture and lift will be
lacking...we will keep probability of precipitation at 20 percent. The passage of the
upper trough will bring increased cloud cover which should keep
temperatures a few degrees cooler on Thursday.

The upper trough axis will move quickly east of the region
Thursday evening as a ridge of high pressure builds in from the
west. The upper ridge will amplify as it translates east through
early next week. Building heights and a mostly clear sky will
result in unseasonably warm temperatures Friday through Sunday
with highs in the 80s and lows mainly in the 60s.

The upper ridge will build toward the East Coast Sunday night and
Monday while a progressive trough approaches from the west. The
trough should move through North Texas dry Monday night but once
it passes to the east it will allow a cold front to enter the
region. The arrival of the front may bring just enough moisture
and lift to produce a few showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday of
next week.



Preliminary point temps/pops...
Dallas-ft. Worth, Texas 85 62 83 61 79 / 5 5 5 10 10
Waco, Texas 82 57 83 56 80 / 5 5 5 5 10
Paris, Texas 79 58 77 55 75 / 5 5 5 5 10
Denton, Texas 84 57 82 57 81 / 5 5 5 10 20
McKinney, Texas 82 56 80 55 78 / 5 5 5 10 10
Dallas, Texas 84 63 81 61 77 / 5 5 5 10 10
Terrell, Texas 83 59 80 56 78 / 5 5 5 5 10
Corsicana, Texas 83 61 83 58 80 / 5 5 5 5 10
Temple, Texas 82 57 83 56 81 / 5 5 5 5 10
Mineral Wells, Texas 82 56 82 57 81 / 5 5 10 20 10


Forward watches/warnings/advisories...



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