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Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Fort Worth Texas
1148 PM CDT sun Aug 2 2015

Aviation...
/06z tafs/

No concerns...VFR.

Light winds...generally under 10kts...will prevail through the
forecast period. When speeds fall to near 5kts...the direction
typically varies...but the winds will be primarily from the
southeast.

Once again tonight...some high-based showers may enter western
portions of North Texas...but these should only result in virga or
sprinkles. No impacts are expected at any taf sites. Occasional
middle/high clouds will pass through in west/northwest flow.

25

&&

Update...
no major changes required to the package this evening and the
previous forecast remains in good shape. Increased cloud cover a
tad and added a mention of sprinkles across most of our Red River
counties Monday morning as a weak short wave trough may slide in from the
north as forecast soundings show some middle/upper level moistening
of the column. With the dry air still entrenched at the
surface however...precipitation amounts should remain light. Cannot rule
out a rumble of thunder or two with some instability being
advertised by both the rap and NAM...but profiles are marginal for
even isolated thunderstorms.

Updated zones and other associated products have been sent.

Bain

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 334 PM CDT sun Aug 2 2015/
an axis of middle level moisture persists across northwest Texas
and we are expecting isolated showers to develop again just
northwest of the County Warning Area overnight. It is possible a few of these
showers may move into far northwest portions of the County Warning Area and we will show
a mention of such activity in the forecast through Monday morning.
The low levels remain very dry...and thus very little if any
measurable rain is expected. For the remainder of the area
another tranquil night is forecast. Dewpoints will be in the 50s
this evening which should make for somewhat pleasant conditions
for early August. Surface moisture will be on the increase later
tonight and into Monday as winds become more southerly in the
lower levels. So unfortunately the humidity will be returning to
more normal levels during the next couple of days.

An upper level high will intensify over Arizona and New Mexico
this week...but north central Texas will remain on its eastern
fringe. This means upper level subsidence will not be too
prominent...and once low level moisture recovers enough the
airmass will actually be unstable during the afternoon hours with
little to no cin. With northwest flow aloft prevailing over the
County Warning Area through the week...it is certainly a pattern that could make
the weather go from dry to - surprise it is raining. At this
point the ingredients required to produce convection do not appear
to come in phase with one another...but again this is not a
pattern where dry weather is a certainty.

On Monday night a strong shortwave trough will kick off storms in
the High Plains. Favorable steering flow aloft exists for a mesoscale convective system to
form and track into the area...but low level moisture/instability
just look too limited for any complex to make it this far south
and affect the area Tuesday morning. Moisture and instability
increase dramatically by Wednesday afternoon...but by this time
there is a lack of forcing as the primary shortwave trough moves
east into the Mississippi River valley. Have inserted a slight
chance of afternoon/evening storms in the forecast Wednesday over
the northeast zones where the tail end of the forcing may interact
with the unstable/uncapped airmass. Otherwise have shown probability of precipitation of
10 percent Tuesday and Thursday north of I-20 but kept the worded
forecast dry. The rain chances increase a little by Friday evening
and into Saturday when a weak cold front should drop into the Red
River valley and stall. Will show just slight chances of showers
and storms over the northern and northeastern zones.

Again the majority of the region next week should contend with
just hot and dry weather. Temperatures will gradually inch up into
the 98 to 103 degree range over the entire area by late in the
work week. It appears that heat advisory criteria may occur over
portions of the County Warning Area by middle-late week. By next Sunday...the upper
high should become centered over Texas which will promote hot and
dry weather well into middle August.

Tr.92




&&



Preliminary point temps/pops...
Dallas-ft. Worth, Texas 78 99 79 99 80 / 0 0 0 5 5
Waco, Texas 73 99 76 99 77 / 0 0 0 5 5
Paris, Texas 71 98 74 98 76 / 0 10 0 10 10
Denton, Texas 73 98 75 99 78 / 5 5 5 10 10
McKinney, Texas 72 99 75 98 77 / 0 5 0 10 10
Dallas, Texas 79 100 80 100 82 / 0 0 0 5 5
Terrell, Texas 73 99 75 98 77 / 0 0 0 5 5
Corsicana, Texas 74 100 76 99 77 / 0 0 0 5 5
Temple, Texas 72 100 74 99 75 / 0 0 0 5 5
Mineral Wells, Texas 72 98 73 99 76 / 10 5 5 5 5

&&

Forward watches/warnings/advisories...
none.

&&

$$

25/15

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