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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Fort Worth Texas
1131 PM CDT sun Aug 31 2014

Aviation...
kfws VAD wind profile indicates a 30 to 35 knot low level jet
across North Texas late this evening. Patchy low clouds are already
beginning to develop around New Braunfels. These low clouds will
increase in coverage as they spread northward into North Texas.
MVFR ceilings should reach Waco between 10 and 11z and the
metroplex taf sites around 12z. Ceilings heights should range from
1500 to 2000 feet initially but will slowly lift and scatter around
middle morning Monday once vigorous boundary layer mixing starts. VFR
conditions will return just before midday Monday and ceilings will
remain VFR through Monday evening.

Some of the higher momentum air of the low level jet will make it
down to the surface overnight and result in a south wind in the 12
to 16 knot range along with some gusts to near 25 knots. Wind
speeds will remain in this range through Monday afternoon...but
wind speeds should decrease around sunset Monday evening.

79

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Previous discussion... /issued 320 PM CDT sun Aug 31 2014/
isolated showers and thunderstorms have moved into the
southeastern zones this afternoon. This activity will continue to
move north but will dissipate by sunset. Thus have left 20 percent
probability of precipitation in the area southeast of a Killeen to Canton line through
early evening. With a surface low that is currently over
southeastern Colorado moving slowly east...we will see south winds
of 10 to 20 miles per hour tonight. Overnight lows will be in the 70s area
wide.

Labor Day should be pretty nice weather-wise for outdoor
festivities. It will be seasonably hot and humid with not much
much of a chance of rain. Have placed some 10 percent probability of precipitation with
no mention of precipitation in the southeastern zones...but the
better chances of showers/thunderstorms will be to the southeast
of the forecast area. Highs will be mostly in the 90s...but a few
spots across the central and west may reach the 100-degree mark.

An upper level ridge will build across north and central Texas
this coming week keeping the region slightly above seasonal
normal temperatures. Rain chances at this time do not look very
good. Have left some 20 percent probability of precipitation in the southeastern zones for
Tuesday afternoon and evening...otherwise have not mentioned any
rain in the forecast through Friday.

A slight change in the weather pattern is being advertised for
next weekend. The upper level ridge is forecast to weaken its
grip across north and central Texas and a weak cold front is
forecast to move into the forecast area. The 12z run of the GFS
brings this front into North Texas before daybreak Saturday while
the European model (ecmwf) is about 12 hours slower. This should bring at least
some low rain chances Saturday afternoon and Sunday.

58




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Preliminary point temps/pops...
Dallas-ft. Worth, Texas 76 97 78 97 77 / 5 5 5 5 5
Waco, Texas 75 97 76 96 74 / 5 5 5 10 10
Paris, Texas 73 93 73 93 72 / 5 5 5 10 10
Denton, Texas 74 98 75 97 74 / 5 5 5 5 5
McKinney, Texas 74 95 75 94 74 / 5 5 5 10 10
Dallas, Texas 77 97 78 97 77 / 5 5 5 10 10
Terrell, Texas 76 95 77 95 76 / 5 5 5 10 10
Corsicana, Texas 75 97 77 96 75 / 5 5 5 20 20
Temple, Texas 74 97 74 96 73 / 5 5 5 10 10
Mineral Wells, Texas 74 99 74 99 73 / 5 5 5 5 5

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Forward watches/warnings/advisories...
none.

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$$

79/25

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