Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Fort Worth Texas
1122 am CST Monday Feb 8 2016
the pressure gradient between a surface low over the Great Lakes
states and a high over southwest Texas is resulting in strong and
gusty northwest winds across north and central Texas. Expect
northwest surface winds of 20-25 knots...with gusts to over 35
knots at times this afternoon /18z-00z/. Winds will decrease to
around 15 knots after 00z. Expect northwest winds 10-15 knots
tonight through Tuesday with mostly clear skies.
wind speeds are already in the 15-25 miles per hour range this morning with
gusts to 35 miles per hour. However...a few sites are reporting higher winds
sustained at 30-35 miles per hour with gusts near 45 miles per hour. Strong and gusty
northwest winds will continue today with temperatures in the 50s
this afternoon. The strong winds and dry air are also resulting in
elevated to critical fire weather conditions across the region. A
red flag warning remains in effect across the western 2/3rds of
north and central Texas and a grassfire danger statement describes
the elevated fire weather conditions east of that area. No
significant changes were needed for the update but made minor
tweaks based on latest hourly trends.
Previous discussion... /issued 416 am CST Monday Feb 8 2016/
Arctic air is plunging through the upper Midwest and will continue
pushing south today. With unseasonably strong ridging across the
western states...the slope of the height fields across the central
states will steepen...and the associated jet will intensify as it
digs south in response. Over North Texas...500mb winds will exceed
100kts today. Within 2 miles of the surface...wind speeds will
approach 80kts. As the mixing depth deepens this morning...some of
this northwesterly momentum will reach the surface. The Wind
Advisory speed criterion of sustained 25mph should be met
throughout the region. Peak gusts will exceed 40mph in some areas.
The cold advection will be somewhat offset by downslope warming...
but daytime temperatures will be below normal throughout the
region. Despite the cool air...the gusty winds and relative
humidity below 25 percent will yield critical fire weather
conditions this afternoon. The abundant autumn growth is now
dormant...and this vegetation would be the first to initiate fire.
Although there is some green cold season growth that will be more
resistant to fire spread...the winds will make any potential
wildfires difficult to contain today. A red flag warning has been
issued for areas along and west of a line from Gainesville...to
Dallas...to Centerville. Elevated fire weather conditions are
expected to the east of this line.
The winds will steadily subside this evening...and temperatures
will fall to near freezing Tuesday morning. Northerly winds will
prevail on Tuesday...but as middle-level heights rise here and
upstream...the downslope warming will exceed the diminishing
thermal advection. As a result...many areas will reach the 60s
The warming trend will continue Wednesday and Thursday. With
unseasonably strong ridging...balmy 850mb temperatures...and
southwesterly surface winds ahead of an approaching front...
Thursday will be the warmest day of the week. The front may cross
the Red River Thursday afternoon...but the bulk of the region will
reach peak heating before the colder air arrives Thursday night.
With persistent northerly flow aloft and negligible moisture
return in the low levels...this frontal passage looks Bone dry.
Cooler weather will follow on Friday and Saturday...but southern
and western zones may still exceed normal values for mid-February.
Breezy south winds will return on Valentines day...but Gulf
moisture will be rather paltry in advance of the subsequent
frontal passage early next week. The European model (ecmwf) is the most bullish
with a shortwave in northwest flow and corresponding
precipitation...but this event remains beyond the current 7-day
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Dallas-ft. Worth, Texas 56 35 62 38 63 / 0 0 0 0 0
Waco, Texas 58 32 64 35 67 / 0 0 0 0 0
Paris, Texas 52 29 54 33 55 / 0 0 0 0 0
Denton, Texas 55 31 61 33 63 / 0 0 0 0 0
McKinney, Texas 55 31 59 34 60 / 0 0 0 0 0
Dallas, Texas 58 36 61 39 63 / 0 0 0 0 0
Terrell, Texas 56 34 59 35 62 / 0 0 0 0 0
Corsicana, Texas 57 34 62 37 65 / 0 0 0 0 0
Temple, Texas 58 33 65 37 69 / 0 0 0 0 0
Mineral Wells, Texas 56 31 65 35 69 / 0 0 0 0 0
red flag warning until 6 PM CST this evening for txz091-092-
Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for txz091>095-100>107-