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Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Fort Worth Texas
1139 PM CDT Monday Sep 15 2014

Aviation...
will be removing vcsh for the metroplex taf sites for tonight while
continuing vcsh at kact through 09z. Unlike that rain showers will lower
or produce any ceilings reduction tonight. Kact still on tap to see a
few hours of bkn035 on Tuesday morning. Otherwise...VFR ceilings
broken-overcast at 10000+ feet and light easterly surface winds through
the forecast period. 75

&&

Update...
showers are on the wane...and elevated instability looks
insufficient for thunder overnight. Have lowered probability of precipitation to 20
percent and removed the mention of thunder. Otherwise...given the
extensive cloud cover over the region...temperatures will have
more trouble cooling than last night and have raised lows a
couple of degrees. Tr.9s

&&



Short term...
tonight through Thursday

The weather will remain unsettled the next few days as middle-level
ridging is continually invaded by moisture/energy from Odile.
Even with persistent cloud cover...a maritime tropical air mass
will allow for near-normal afternoon temperatures.

The first slug of moisture from Hurricane Odile has aided in the
proliferation of showers across much of north and central Texas
today. With moist adiabatic lapse rates aloft...these elevated
convective elements have been inefficient rain producers and
largely devoid of thunder. Although benign...this activity has
helped to erode the northwestern periphery of the subtropical high
aloft.

The high will attempt to regain control on Tuesday...but
additional moisture for Odile will disrupt the subsidence in the
mid-levels. A backdoor front could provide the surface focus
necessary to realize the instability in a progressively warming
boundary layer. Ongoing elevated convection overnight into the
morning hours may seamlessly transition into afternoon surface-
based showers/storms...but considerable cloud cover may keep the
boundary layer sealed. Regardless...with weakening winds in the
lowest 20kft...severe weather appears unlikely. But with steadily
increasing precipitable water values...potentially topping 2 inches on Tuesday...
isolated heavy rainfall will be possible with the slow-moving
cells. Mitigating factors will be the lack of a well defined focus
for initiation limiting overall coverage and the weak shear
shortening the lifespan of individual updrafts.

Guidance is in fairly good agreement with the ejection of a
significant impulse from the remnants of Odile on Wednesday.
Depending on the extent of the precipitation on Wednesday...a
weakness may linger in the middle-levels on Thursday...maintaining
rain chances until progressive longwave ridging transits the
region Friday and Saturday. 25

&&

Long term...
Friday through Sunday

Temperatures should be slightly above normal for the end of the week
as upper level high pressure builds over the region. Extended
guidance continues to agree for the upcoming weekend with the
European model (ecmwf)...GFS...and CMC depicting a broad trough traversing the
northern plains on Friday and Saturday. The flow aloft should become
increasingly amplified over the weekend with deep troughing in the
Great Lakes region and a building ridge over The Rockies. This
pattern will allow a cold front to move southward into Texas by
Sunday. Went ahead and introduced low probability of precipitation for much of Sunday until
the frontal passage time can be pinned down. Stalley 25

&&



Preliminary point temps/pops...
Dallas-ft. Worth, Texas 74 87 74 89 75 / 20 40 20 20 30
Waco, Texas 73 87 73 88 73 / 20 40 30 30 40
Paris, Texas 69 84 69 86 69 / 20 30 20 20 20
Denton, Texas 71 87 71 88 71 / 20 40 20 20 20
McKinney, Texas 70 85 70 86 70 / 20 40 20 20 20
Dallas, Texas 75 86 74 88 74 / 20 40 20 20 30
Terrell, Texas 73 86 71 87 72 / 20 40 20 20 30
Corsicana, Texas 72 87 72 88 72 / 20 40 20 30 30
Temple, Texas 71 87 72 87 72 / 20 40 30 40 40
Mineral Wells, Texas 70 85 70 87 71 / 20 40 20 20 30

&&

Forward watches/warnings/advisories...
none.

&&

$$

75/

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