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Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Fort Worth Texas
539 PM CST Wednesday Dec 17 2014

Aviation...
concerns...MVFR ceilings becoming IFR tonight.

An area of rain will end west to east across the metroplex taf
sites 01-02z this evening...and kact shortly. Any thunder will be
east of the terminals this evening.

The problem for tonight is how fast will MVFR ceilings become IFR
this evening as warm air aloft continues to move over colder air
at the surface. Once the rain moves east of a terminal...we
expect ceilings to become IFR with visible in the 2-5sm range. There also
may be some -dz through 05-06z as well. We will keep the metroplex
3-5sm and ovc008 late tonight through most of Thursday morning.
MVFR ceilings are expected to return late Thursday morning and last
through the afternoon and into Thursday evening.

Winds will remain light...but direction will be problematic as
they fluctuate northeast to southeast this evening. Expecting
mostly southeasterly light winds 5-9 knots on Thursday. 75

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 353 PM CST Wednesday Dec 17 2014/
after a somewhat slow start...the rain shield has steadily
expanded in coverage this afternoon and advanced into the I-35
corridor as of 3 PM. The sheared upper level shortwave trough
over nm/far West Texas that is largely responsible for this rain
activity should shift eastward into OK by late tonight...pushing
most of the rain out of North Texas after 06z. Instability has
been sufficient to produce some pea to dime-sized hail with some
of the cells in Tarrant and southern Denton counties...and some
additional thunder and small hail is possible through early
evening. The great bulk of the area...however...should experience
just rain.

North Texas should see a break from any precipitation
Thursday...but then another...larger and more pronounced upper trough
should build into the the Southern Plains late Thursday night into
Friday. This next system should induce surface cyclogenesis over
southeast Texas early Friday...with a large shield of rain evolving over
eastern and southern Texas. The big question is how far
north...and in what amounts...this rain will expand into our area Friday.
Our thinking...based on current model soundings...is that a
substantial amount of dry air will persist on the northern
periphery of this system...and this should limit amounts along and
north of Interstate 20 to less than one quarter inch...if that
much. Qpfs farther to the south...where moisture and lift will be
Richer...should be more generous - perhaps on the order of an inch
or so.

Most of the moisture should lift east of the area by
Saturday...and with zonal to northwesterly upper flow persisting
from that point Onward...the forecast into middle-week should be
mostly dry. Did include a small pop for areas generally east of
I-35 for late Monday into Tuesday...as a cold front moves into the
area...and another vigorous trough builds into the arklatex region.

Bradshaw

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Dallas-ft. Worth, Texas 41 61 47 51 38 / 60 5 40 50 20
Waco, Texas 44 62 49 54 39 / 60 10 70 70 10
Paris, Texas 38 51 43 48 38 / 90 10 30 50 30
Denton, Texas 40 59 44 49 36 / 60 5 30 40 20
McKinney, Texas 40 57 44 50 37 / 60 10 40 40 20
Dallas, Texas 41 60 47 51 40 / 60 5 40 50 20
Terrell, Texas 42 58 47 50 39 / 80 5 50 50 20
Corsicana, Texas 45 63 49 52 41 / 80 10 70 70 20
Temple, Texas 45 64 50 55 40 / 50 10 80 80 10
Mineral Wells, Texas 41 60 44 51 35 / 50 5 40 40 10

&&

Forward watches/warnings/advisories...
none.

&&

$$

75/

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