Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth Texas
550 am CDT Wednesday may 22 2013
Aviation...
patchy fog has formed near the back edge of the exiting stratus
deck over eastern North Texas. The 11-3.9 micron Sat imagery
indicates that the fog is attempting to work slowly west...so
there is still some concern that the metropolitan-area terminals may
experience a brief period of reduced visibilities between now and
15z. It is currently VFR...but will maintain a MVFR visibility
forecast through 15z at Dal and dfw based mainly on satellite
trends. Meanwhile Waco has already been waffling between 4sm and
a quarter of a mile over the past few hours...so will likely
continue with a tempo 1/2sm for another couple of hours in the
kact taf. Otherwise light winds should pick up out of the
southeast at 5-10 kts with improving visibilities later this
morning.
30
&&
Previous discussion... /issued 302 am CDT Wednesday may 22 2013/
skies have cleared over most of the area and now fog is forming
along and east of I-35. A few areas will see dense fog...and it
should burn off by middle morning. As the storm system moves
east...a weak upper ridge will push into Texas Thursday morning
located from The Big Bend north into the Dakotas. The ridge slides
east over our area by Friday morning...and aided by an upper
disturbance convection forming along the dry line Thursday
afternoon should advect east into the area. I have kept low probability of precipitation
for the northwest Thursday night and across the northern half of
North Texas Friday into Friday night. A lot of the convective
extent depends on just how strong of a short wave will actually
support the event.
Southwest flow aloft returns Saturday through much of next
week...and although the GFS develops spotty precipitation most
days...the probability of precipitation are quite low and the European model (ecmwf) seems drier. Have gone
with the drier solution...although if later runs become wetter
probability of precipitation will have to increase.
Temperatures will be near normal for this time of year...with the
flow turning back to the south Thursday and humidity increasing as
well. After the last week/S events...all in all a fairly Boring
forecast. 84
&&
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Dallas-ft. Worth, Texas 85 64 89 70 85 / 10 10 10 10 10
Waco, Texas 87 67 90 71 88 / 10 10 10 10 10
Paris, Texas 82 63 85 69 81 / 10 10 10 10 20
Denton, Texas 84 64 87 70 84 / 5 10 10 10 20
McKinney, Texas 85 64 88 71 85 / 10 10 10 10 20
Dallas, Texas 88 65 91 71 88 / 10 10 10 10 10
Terrell, Texas 86 66 90 72 86 / 10 10 10 10 20
Corsicana, Texas 86 67 91 71 88 / 10 10 10 10 10
Temple, Texas 86 68 90 71 88 / 10 10 10 10 10
Mineral Wells, Texas 87 65 91 70 87 / 5 10 10 20 10
&&
Forward watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&
$$
30/84
