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Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Fort Worth Texas
1128 am CST Wednesday Nov 26 2014

VFR conditions are expected through 00z Friday. A weak cold front
has moved through the metroplex taf sites as of 17z and will move
through Waco in the next hour. Northwest winds 12-15 knots will
prevail through sunset with winds then becoming northerly 6-9
knots. As high pressure moves east Thursday morning...winds will
become east 6-8 knots by 15z and southeast by middle Thursday



a cold front is currently working its way south through North
Texas...extending along a line from Paris to Dallas to Comanche
late this morning. The front should push steadily south through
the rest of the region this afternoon with north winds expected at
all locations prior to sunset. Wind speeds around 15 miles per hour should
drop below 10 miles per hour this evening as low level flow
decouples...leading to decent radiational cooling and temperatures
falling into the 30s overnight. Pleasant weather is still
expected for Thanksgiving...with mostly sunny skies and
temperatures climbing to 60 around degrees. The current forecast
looks good and just some minor grid adjustments were required for
this update.



Previous discussion... /issued 255 am CST Wednesday Nov 26 2014/
a short wave trough will rotate across the Central Plains today and
allow a cold front to slide across North Texas. The cold front
will come through dry and bring little more than a reinforcement
of cool/dry air. The high temperature forecast for today will be a
little tricky since some compressional warming will take place
ahead of the front as surface winds turn to the southwest. High
temperatures should reach 60 in the northwest zones while the
southern zones should make it to 70 and possibly a few degrees
warmer if the the leading edge of the front mixes out which often
happens with daytime frontal passage when very few clouds are present.

Dry air...a clear sky and a light north wind tonight will promote
optimal radiational cooling which will result in overnight lows
mainly in the 30s with even a few spots cooling into the upper 20s.

After a cold start...temperatures on Thanksgiving will steadily
warm under full sun and slowly returning southerly winds. Afternoon
highs Thursday will range from the upper 50s in the north to the
middle 60s in the southern zones.

A warm up will begin Thursday night/Friday as a low level warm air
advection pattern sets up in response to a developing Lee trough
across the High Plains. Clouds...southerly winds and humidity will
all increase Friday through Sunday with high temperatures both
Saturday and Sunday reaching the 70s. There may be a few light
showers across the eastern zones on Sunday but no appreciable
rainfall is expected.

A weak cold front should arrive in North Texas on Monday and bring
slightly cooler and drier air. A few showers are possible along
and ahead of the front across the eastern zones. The front is
prognosticated to stall over the region Tuesday and may provide enough
forcing for a few showers and thunderstorms but the better rain
and storm chances should hold off until Wednesday or Thursday of
next week when a deep upper level trough approaches from the
southwestern U.S. 79


Preliminary point temps/pops...
Dallas-ft. Worth, Texas 65 37 60 43 69 / 0 0 0 0 0
Waco, Texas 68 36 61 41 69 / 0 0 0 0 0
Paris, Texas 64 32 57 36 64 / 0 0 0 0 0
Denton, Texas 65 33 59 40 68 / 0 0 0 0 0
McKinney, Texas 65 35 58 39 68 / 0 0 0 0 0
Dallas, Texas 66 39 60 43 69 / 0 0 0 0 0
Terrell, Texas 66 36 61 40 67 / 0 0 0 0 0
Corsicana, Texas 69 37 61 41 69 / 0 0 0 0 0
Temple, Texas 70 36 62 40 69 / 0 0 0 0 0
Mineral Wells, Texas 65 32 63 38 72 / 0 0 0 0 0


Forward watches/warnings/advisories...




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