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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Fort Worth Texas
300 am CST Monday Jan 26 2015

Discussion...
with unseasonably strong upper ridging aloft...above normal high
temperatures will prevail through midweek. The pleasant weather
will come to an end on Thursday when a cold front surges through
the region. Postfrontal precipitation is looking more promising...
which would mean a chilly and rainy weekend.

Winds have subsided overnight...allowing temperatures to fall into
the 30s in many locations. In Graham...where winds have been
calm...the temperature reached freezing. Despite the seasonal
temperatures this morning...the combination of low humidity...
downslope winds...and abundant sunshine will allow temperatures to
soar into the 60s by midday. Afternoon highs will reach the 70s
along and west of the I-35 corridor. Spring fever will be in full
force Tuesday and Wednesday with 70s regionwide. The warmest day
of the week looks to be Wednesday when European model (ecmwf) MOS is 79f for
several locations...including dfw and Waco.

The next cold front will arrive Thursday...but high temperatures
will still reach the 60s...perhaps even 70f in central Texas where
the front will arrive late in the day. Although there will be some
moisture return in advance of the front...subsidence will
persist...and no precipitation is expected during its passage.

Extended guidance maintains good agreement with respect to the
synoptic pattern and its impacts on temperature and precipitation
for the upcoming weekend. Arctic air may spill as far south as the
Central Plains...but with a large cut off low near the Gulf of
California...the main polar jet should guide that air mass toward
the East Coast. The result for Texas this weekend is southwest
flow...riding over the top of a chilly but above-freezing boundary
layer. Surface temperatures look to be safely above freezing with
thermal profiles supportive of rain. At this time...Saturday looks
to be the rainiest day...but uncertainty in timing on day 6 will
keep probability of precipitation at 50 percent or less.

25

&&

Aviation...
/issued 1109 PM CST sun Jan 25 2015/
/06z tafs/

Only minor tweaks...as west-northwest winds 5-7 kts back around west-southwest/SW 10-15
kts on Monday as surface high pressure continues south across West
Texas. This surface high should be centered between del Rio/Laredo
along the Rio Grande Valley of SW Texas by Monday afternoon. Otherwise
VFR as dry northwest flow aloft continues overhead.

05/



&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Dallas-ft. Worth, Texas 70 45 74 49 75 / 0 0 0 0 0
Waco, Texas 71 43 74 44 75 / 0 0 0 0 0
Paris, Texas 65 42 70 43 71 / 0 0 0 0 0
Denton, Texas 71 41 73 45 75 / 0 0 0 0 0
McKinney, Texas 69 42 72 44 73 / 0 0 0 0 0
Dallas, Texas 70 46 73 49 74 / 0 0 0 0 0
Terrell, Texas 68 43 73 46 73 / 0 0 0 0 0
Corsicana, Texas 68 45 73 48 74 / 0 0 0 0 0
Temple, Texas 71 44 74 45 75 / 0 0 0 0 0
Mineral Wells, Texas 73 41 75 45 79 / 0 0 0 0 0

&&

Forward watches/warnings/advisories...
none.

&&

$$

58/25

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