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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Fort Worth Texas
549 am CST Sat Feb 6 2016

an upper level low and an attendant surface low were both located
almost directly over the dfw area early this morning...with a
cold front extending south through the kact area. Precipitation
associated with the system has shifted east of the area...but
wrap-around moisture will pose a concern for some low clouds
during the day today. Over the past hour or so...MVFR ceilings had
developed just north and east of the metroplex. The most recent
hi-res guidance suggests that low level moisture will continue to
wrap around the back side of the system...creating a batch of MVFR
stratus in the dfw area by 15z. These clouds should linger into
the afternoon before drier air and subsidence scour out the cloud
deck. At this time we are indicating that this would occur around
21z...but may be adjusted as the day wears on and future trends
present themselves.

Winds have become light and variable at dfw and Dal...but should
pick up out of the northwest in an hour or so similar to the feet
Worth area airports as the surface low and cold front push east
of the area. Winds will then become northerly at 10-15 knots by middle
morning. Wind speeds will slacken this afternoon...then shift
around to the southwest overnight as a stronger cold front moves
southeast into the Texas Panhandle. The next front will push through
Sunday afternoon...just beyond the extended portion of the dfw



Previous discussion... /issued 412 am CST Sat Feb 6 2016/
at forecast issuance time...our upper disturbance is nearly
overhead. Now with a closed circulation...the inflow upstream has
intensified. Although this air is not particularly warm or has steepened lapse rates sufficiently for
some thunder in portions of central and East Texas. There may be
some lingering wrap-around sprinkles within North Texas...but the
measurable rainfall will be primarily confined to East Texas the
remainder of the morning...and probability of precipitation have been trimmed accordingly.

The associated surface low will follow its middle-level parent to the
southeast...and north winds will ensue across all of north and
central Texas today. Even with abundant sunshine this afternoon...
high temperatures will be a few degrees below normal.

On the backside of the departing system...deep and vigorous
northerly flow will quickly push the associated surface high off
to the southeast. Light south surface winds may return as early
as this evening...but expect winds will be too light to prevent
effective radiational cooling tonight. Clear skies and low
humidity will help readings fall into the 30s regionwide. The
usual cold spots...particularly north and west of the metroplex...
may see a light freeze.

Southwest winds will help temperatures to reach or even exceed
normal values on Sunday. But with prevailing northwest flow
aloft...another cold front will enter North Texas Sunday

As a cyclone digs into the Great Lake states early next
will bring with it bitter Arctic air. With unseasonably strong
ridging across the western states...the polar jet between the two
will intensify and dig deep into the southeastern states. Some of
this momentum will reach the surface on Monday...which will likely
be a Wind Advisory day across north and central Texas. The
downslope component of the northwest winds...combined with full
sunshine...will offset some of the cold advection...but afternoon
temperatures should still be below normal on Monday. Wind speeds
and relative humidity values will likely reach red flag
criteria...but the cool temperatures should mitigate impacts.
Residents should be aware of the potential wildfire threat on
Monday...and interested parties should keep abreast of the fire
weather forecast.

A warming trend will result in temperatures back in the 70s as
early as Wednesday. Thursday will be the warmest day of the
week...before the next dry front arrives on Friday.

The third week of February is also looking dry...but there is
still the potential for a transition to a wet pattern for the
final week of the month.



Preliminary point temps/pops...
Dallas-ft. Worth, Texas 53 36 64 36 56 / 5 0 0 0 0
Waco, Texas 54 31 64 34 58 / 5 0 0 0 0
Paris, Texas 53 34 60 33 51 / 20 0 0 0 0
Denton, Texas 53 31 62 33 54 / 5 0 0 0 0
McKinney, Texas 53 32 61 34 53 / 5 0 0 0 0
Dallas, Texas 53 37 62 38 55 / 5 0 0 0 0
Terrell, Texas 53 34 62 34 54 / 10 0 0 0 0
Corsicana, Texas 53 35 64 36 56 / 10 0 0 0 0
Temple, Texas 57 32 65 33 58 / 0 0 0 0 0
Mineral Wells, Texas 55 31 65 32 57 / 0 0 0 0 0


Forward watches/warnings/advisories...



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