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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Fort Worth Texas
1138 PM CDT Friday Aug 28 2015

Aviation...
VFR will prevail but abundant middle-high clouds are expected as
weak middle and upper level trough axis slides into the region.
Increasing saturation aloft combined with weak elevated
instability/lift will result in some very high based light rain
showers by morning. Mostly virga is expected...but some rain may
reach the ground. Have included vcsh from 10-18z but aside from
possible turbulence...do not expect any impacts from this
activity. Otherwise...light southeast winds will veer to the
south by sunrise.

Tr.92

&&




Previous discussion... /issued 324 PM CDT Friday Aug 28 2015/
North Texas continues to remain on the eastern periphery of the
southwest U.S upper high today and will do so through middle
evening. A shortwave middle level trough will continue to push
southeast tonight toward the Red River valley which should result
in scattered light showers and isolated thunderstorms. Much of the
moisture will be rooted in the middle level of the atmosphere so
despite coverage...any measurable rainfall should remain less than
a tenth of an inch with possible isolated heavier amounts. No
strong to severe weather is expected with lightning strikes being
the main concern for the latter parts of High School football
games this evening north of I-20.

As a coastal middle level trough currently near Mobile Alabama
drifts west...the eastern extent of the upper high over our area
will weaken and allow weak north flow aloft over the area this
weekend. Meanwhile...a cold front will drift southeast near or
into our northwest counties by late in the weekend. Though any
surface focus appears benign...subtle lift from middle level
shortwave energy dropping south will combine with strong August
heating for at least a low coverage of showers and thunderstorms
mostly along and north of I-20 on Saturday...then further south
into central Texas Saturday night into Sunday. We are not
expecting any strong to severe weather with instability remaining
relatively modest and lapse rates aloft not steep at all.
Lightning strikes should be the main hazard with spotty light
rainfall less than a quarter of an inch.

Models diverge on solutions regarding the Gulf Coast and lower
Mississippi Valley middle level trough next week...with the GFS
slightly further west and stronger over the arklatex. Either
way...the middle level trough should remain off our eastern County Warning Area
edge. We will advertise diurnal slight chances across our
southeast counties both Tuesday and Wednesday where better middle
level frontogenesis will combine with a stronger seabreeze
component each afternoon. It/S safe to say there is plenty of
uncertainty with the forecast next week...as the placement of the
middle level trough will be key to where low rain chances occur each
day. Otherwise...seasonably hot temperatures are expected with
highs in the lower to middle 90s the next 7 days.

05




&&



Preliminary point temps/pops...
Dallas-ft. Worth, Texas 77 94 77 95 77 / 10 20 20 5 10
Waco, Texas 74 95 74 95 72 / 10 10 20 20 5
Paris, Texas 71 91 71 93 71 / 30 30 10 5 10
Denton, Texas 74 94 74 95 74 / 20 20 10 5 10
McKinney, Texas 74 93 74 94 74 / 20 20 10 5 10
Dallas, Texas 77 94 78 95 77 / 10 20 20 5 10
Terrell, Texas 73 93 73 94 72 / 10 20 20 5 10
Corsicana, Texas 73 94 74 95 73 / 10 10 20 10 10
Temple, Texas 72 94 72 94 72 / 5 10 20 20 5
Mineral Wells, Texas 73 96 72 96 72 / 10 20 10 5 5

&&

Forward watches/warnings/advisories...
none.

&&

$$

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