Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth Texas
230 PM CDT Tuesday may 5 2015
a pattern of unsettled weather will exist over the region through
the weekend as upper systems approach from the west and move
northeast through the central rockies and Central Plains.
The first system is moving out of The Four Corners this afternoon
with a vigorous short wave pivoting into western Oklahoma and
North Texas this evening. Early afternoon Southern Plains radar
mosaic shows bands of convection feeding into this system as well
as another band of low level warm advection convection over East
Texas. As the afternoon progresses...we expect the western
convection to spread farther east into the County Warning Area with an increase in
coverage and intensity. We have a very unstable atmosphere in
place and strong upper diffluence approaching from the west that
will tap into high Theta-E air riding north on a 30-40 knot low
level jet...thus some strong to marginally severe storms are
possible through middle evening. Also...echo training could lead to
isolated heavy runoff that could produce localize flash flooding.
As the upper system moves farther away from the region on
Wednesday...we expect a lull in organized convection Wednesday
through Thursday night. However...there will be isolated to
scattered activity...mainly driven by nocturnal warm advection at
night and daytime heating each afternoon.
The second system will move down the West Coast Wednesday and Thursday
and into the Desert Southwest on Friday and over the southern/central
rockies this weekend. Once again...this system will spread strong
upper dynamics over the region over the weekend while low level
moisture continues to feed northward on a strong low level jet.
Actually...low level Theta-E...surface to 850mb...will be slightly higher
than those expected tonight. Forecast soundings and hodographs
for the weekend period show a potential for some severe storms
forming and moving off a dryline and into the western County Warning Area...and a
potential for very heavy rainfall both Saturday and Sunday as
precipitable waters climb above the 2nd Standard deviation for early may.
A cold front will arrive on Monday and shunt the convection to the
southern County Warning Area Monday night and mainly south of the County Warning Area on Tuesday.
High temperatures will remain rather seasonal through Sunday
while overnight lows will be 4 to 9 degrees above normal.
Temperatures will turn a little cooler for Tuesday with highs
generally 75 to 80 degrees. 75
/issued 1237 PM CDT Tuesday may 5 2015/
sporadic MVFR ceilings occurred this morning...but generally these
ceilings have lifted to VFR at this time. Expect VFR to prevail
through the afternoon with a cumulus cloud deck near 035 to 050.
Some showers are already developing west and east of taf sites
but will hold off on mention of thunderstorms in the vicinity until after 00z when chances
look a little better as upper dynamics arrive. Cant rule out
showers or storms this afternoon...and will need to monitor radar
Best chances and coverage of rain/storms tonight should be west
and northwest of the metroplex this evening. This activity may
tend to build eastward into the metroplex after 4z and the period
from 4z to 9z is being highlighted by the hi-res guidance and rap
as the best window for storms at metroplex taf sites.
Otherwise MVFR ceilings will develop late this evening and prevail
through Wednesday morning. Winds will remain S/southeast near 15kt through the
period outside of any storm influences.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Dallas-ft. Worth, Texas 66 82 68 82 68 / 60 20 20 20 30
Waco, Texas 66 83 69 82 69 / 50 20 20 20 20
Paris, Texas 64 79 65 80 67 / 60 30 20 30 30
Denton, Texas 65 81 67 81 68 / 70 20 30 30 30
McKinney, Texas 65 79 67 81 68 / 50 20 20 20 30
Dallas, Texas 66 81 68 82 69 / 50 20 20 20 30
Terrell, Texas 66 80 68 82 68 / 50 30 20 20 30
Corsicana, Texas 66 81 68 82 69 / 50 20 20 20 20
Temple, Texas 66 83 69 82 69 / 50 20 20 20 20
Mineral Wells, Texas 65 82 67 81 67 / 70 20 30 20 30