Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Return to Local Conditions & Forecast
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth Texas
1058 am CDT Sat Apr 19 2014
current forecast for today and tonight appears on track based on
latest observed trends. Low and middle level ridging was analyzed
from the Texas Gulf Coast region into Arkansas and Illinois this
morning. The middle level ridge will keep large scale subsidence in
place across North Texas through this afternoon. The low level
ridging will keep the deeper and Richer Gulf moisture confined to
south Texas for most of the day.
Mostly sunny skies expected into the afternoon hours before high
level cirrus begins thickening from the west by late afternoon. No
changes are needed to the current forecast of middle and upper 70s
high temperatures today. South winds will continue to slowly
increase this afternoon...but speeds should remain around 10 to 15
miles per hour.
An upper level low...moving east from the Baja California region this
morning... will move across northern Mexico tonight and into
southern New Mexico and far West Texas by early Sunday. Widely
scattered showers and thunderstorms return to the forecast for
western sections of North Texas late tonight as forcing from the
Baja California system moves closer. Isolated showers may spread as far east
as Interstate 35 before sunrise on Sunday...and will further
assess that potential and any other changes to the rainfall
forecast in the afternoon forecast.
light winds will pick up out of the south at 8 to 10 kts around
15z /10 am/. Conditions should remain VFR at all locations today
and tonight...with the only cloud cover being in the form of
cirrus. Some stratus may surge north Sunday morning...and we have
gone ahead and included a line for the extended dfw taf to include
a cloud deck at 2500 feet at 7 am /13z Sunday/. Rain chances prior
to 18z Sunday still appear too low to include in the dfw extended
taf. Better chances of precipitation are expected after 20/18z as
a southern branch shortwave moves east across the Southern Plains.
Previous discussion... /issued 312 am CDT Sat Apr 19 2014/
water vapor satellite imagery shows a shortwave moving into far
West Texas near El Paso at 0730z /230 am CDT/. Lightning was
detected over West Texas south of Carlsbad New Mexico. The
shortwave will move northeast across West Texas today bringing a
chance of showers and thunderstorms to West Texas today.
The main shortwave was located over the northern part of Baja California
California. This shortwave will lift northeast across across New
Mexico Sunday and then slowly east across Oklahoma Sunday night
through Monday. We will see a chance of showers and thunderstorms
starting after midnight Saturday night across the western third of
North Texas...and chances will spread east during the day Sunday
across the rest of north and central Texas. A few strong to
severe storms cannot be ruled out Sunday afternoon...especially
across the northwestern third of the forecast area. Rain chances
will continue Monday as the upper level system slowly moves east
across Oklahoma. Strong lapse rates and moderate deep layer shear
should be conducive for some severe thunderstorms across north and
central Texas Monday afternoon. Large hail and damaging winds will
be possible with some of the thunderstorms.
A cold front will enter the northwestern zones Monday afternoon
and move through the southeastern zones before daybreak Tuesday.
Rain chances will end from northwest to southeast Monday night.
Middle level ridging will build in Tuesday behind the exiting upper
level trough. This will result in dry weather and a warming trend.
A strong upper level system will move into the northern plains
Thursday with a trough extending southwest into New Mexico. We
will see a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms across the
northwestern zones before daybreak Thursday and chances will
spread east during the day Thursday. Rain chances will end from
west to east Thursday night.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Dallas-ft. Worth, Texas 79 61 78 65 80 / 5 10 30 30 40
Waco, Texas 78 60 78 61 81 / 5 10 30 20 30
Paris, Texas 77 57 78 61 77 / 5 5 20 20 50
Denton, Texas 79 59 78 63 79 / 5 10 40 40 40
McKinney, Texas 78 57 78 64 78 / 5 10 30 30 40
Dallas, Texas 79 62 78 65 79 / 5 10 30 30 40
Terrell, Texas 78 58 78 62 79 / 5 5 20 20 40
Corsicana, Texas 78 59 79 61 79 / 5 5 20 20 30
Temple, Texas 78 58 76 59 84 / 5 10 20 20 30
Mineral Wells, Texas 78 58 78 61 82 / 5 20 40 40 30