Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Fort Worth Texas
1149 PM CDT Thursday Jul 31 2014
Concerns...MVFR and IFR ceilings through Friday morning.
The eastern metroplex airports...including kdfw...kdal...and
kgky...are expected to keep low ceilings below 2 kft tonight with
further lowering below 1 kft in a few hours. Conditions will
slowly improve Friday morning with VFR ceilings between 3-4 kft
expected by early afternoon. The clouds will then scatter out
some by Friday evening. North to northeast winds will prevail
through the period at speeds generally at or below 10 kts.
The western metroplex airports...including kafw and kftw...have
been skirting on the western edge of the stratus deck for the past
few hours. Expect the stratus to build back in overnight with
prevailing ceilings between 2-3 kft. Will tempo for lower ceilings between
1-2 kft from 07-11z but ceilings between 1-2 kft should prevail
starting around 11z. Conditions will improve through the morning
hours to VFR by early afternoon. North to northeast winds will
prevail through the period at speeds generally at or below 10 kts.
For kact...MVFR ceilings are expected overnight but will briefly tempo
for IFR ceilings between 11-14z. VFR conditions are expected by early
afternoon. North to northeast winds will prevail through the
period at speeds generally at or below 10 kts.
a shortwave disturbance aloft continued moving southeast away from
the County Warning Area as a surface cold front moved into south-central and
southeast Texas. Scattered thunderstorms have exited out of the
County Warning Area along with the better forcing. Cooler and more stable air was
filtering south through much of the area with subsidence now
taking hold across much the of area. Isentropic forecasts indicate
very weak low level isentropic lift may remain across the eastern
counties overnight and will maintain isolated light showers for
The current stratus should maintain across the region through the
night and into Friday morning with little in the way of isentropic
downglide or dry air advecting into the area within the low levels.
Otherwise...current low temperatures look good with cooling being
very gradual under the persistent stratus.
Previous discussion... /issued 335 PM CDT Thursday Jul 31 2014/
another anomalously cool and cloudy day in progress across most of
North Texas with a surface low located very near Athens and cold
front extending southwest from there. To the north and northwest
of the surface low...extensive cloud cover persists with
temperatures in the 70s and lower 80s. Ahead of the
front...temperatures have warmed into the upper 80s and lower 90s
with scattered thunderstorms moving through the southeast
counties. Will hold on to some low probability of precipitation through this evening
across the southeast counties as rain and storms should eventually
move east of the area.
The low and middle level circulation will linger across the Texas/la
border through Friday keeping North Texas in northerly flow.
Extensive wrap around moisture appears that it will linger across
the region through tomorrow so will keep skies mostly cloudy and
temperatures down a few degrees on Friday. The upper pattern is
rather interesting over the next week across the Southern Plains.
The upper ridge to the west strengthens through middle week but never
really gets out of control...with several disturbances keeping it
in check. Meanwhile...a pronounced trough axis will linger along
the Texas coast during this time. This will likely result in more
cloud cover and better coverage of showers and storms across
southeast Texas and Louisiana through next week. The upper ridge
will be close enough to generally inhibit convective development
across North Texas. Temperatures will steadily warm into the middle
90s by the middle of next week which is about normal for this time
Medium range guidance is in good agreement with a weakness in the
upper heights developing and lingering across North Texas from
Thursday into next weekend. This in combination with a gradually
weakening western U.S. Ridge should allow for increasing rain
chances toward the latter part of next week as northwest flow
persists. The European model (ecmwf) continues to advertise yet another front
moving into the area during this time. This pattern resembles
something that we usually see toward the end of Summer when a
strong upper ridge finally breaks down. We will have to wait and
see how it plays out through middle August but at least for now it
appears that temperatures will remain in check with more rain
chances on the horizon.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Dallas-ft. Worth, Texas 70 86 70 91 71 / 10 5 5 5 5
Waco, Texas 68 88 70 92 70 / 10 10 5 10 5
Paris, Texas 65 81 65 88 67 / 10 10 5 10 5
Denton, Texas 65 86 67 90 69 / 10 5 5 5 5
McKinney, Texas 64 85 66 90 68 / 10 5 5 5 5
Dallas, Texas 69 86 70 91 71 / 10 5 5 5 5
Terrell, Texas 68 85 68 89 70 / 10 10 5 10 5
Corsicana, Texas 70 85 69 89 69 / 10 10 5 10 5
Temple, Texas 68 90 69 93 71 / 10 10 5 10 5
Mineral Wells, Texas 65 89 66 92 68 / 10 5 5 5 5