Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth Texas
536 PM CST Friday Mar 7 2014
VFR through the evening with scattered to broken high clouds and a
south wind between 11 and 15 knots along with some higher gusts.
A 40 knot low level jet will develop overnight ahead of an
approaching cold front. MVFR to high IFR ceilings will develop
between 6z and 8z in Waco and between 9z and 10z across the
metroplex taf sites. Ceilings will have the best chance of falling
below 1000 feet between 12z and 15z Saturday...especially in Waco.
The visibility will also fall between 3 and 5 miles at times
overnight and Saturday morning.
A cold front will move across all taf sites between 16 and 18z and
turn the wind from southerly to northwesterly. Wind speeds will
increase between 15 and 18 knots along with some higher gusts.
MVFR ceilings will slowly lift behind the cold front through the
afternoon but remain below 3000 feet through Saturday evening.
A few showers may accompany the cold front on Saturday but
precipitation should be light with minimal aviation impacts.
Previous discussion... /issued 307 PM CST Friday Mar 7 2014/
a surface low over the northeastern part of the Texas Panhandle
at 2 PM /20z/...will continue to move southward through this
evening. A cold front extended from the surface low southwest
into east central New Mexico. The front will move southeast into
the northwestern part of the forecast area by 6 am Saturday /12z/
and to near a line from Sherman to dfw to Lampasas line by midday
/18z/. The front will clear the southeastern zones before 6 PM
Saturday /00z Sunday/. There will be a chance of showers with
this front but rainfall amounts look to be relatively light with
less than 1/4 inch of mean areal precipitation expected.
Southerly winds ahead of the front will shift to the northwest
and north at 10 to 20 miles per hour with frontal passage. Rain chances will
end across the northwestern zones by sunset Saturday but chances
will continue across the rest of the forecast area into Saturday
night. Some low rain chances may linger in the southeastern zones
An upper level trough that currently extends from the Great Basin
southwest into Southern California will move southeast tonight
before digging southward Saturday. The computer models differ in
how they handle the upper trough with the NAM indicating that a
closed low will move over North Texas by 12z Monday while the
Canadian...European model (ecmwf) and GFS solutions indicate just a trough across
north and central Texas with the upper low cutting off over
northwestern Mexico by 12z Monday. This upper low over Mexico is
then forecast to move east across south Texas Tuesday. Have used
the Canadian/ECMWF/GFS solution...but this still keeps rain
chances Monday night and Tuesday to our south...across south
Texas. Will indicate some 10 percent probability of precipitation across our part of
central Texas for Monday.
As another short wave moves across the plains Tuesday
night/Wednesday...a cold front will move through north and
central Texas. This front will move through dry but the north
winds and drier air may result in an elevated fire weather danger
across the western third/half of the forecast area Wednesday.
Southerly low level winds will return on Thursday as a more zonal
low allows a Lee side trough to develop. Another shortwave will
move across the Central Plains late week but we will remain dry
into the early part of next weekend.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Dallas-ft. Worth, Texas 46 55 36 60 41 / 5 40 20 10 5
Waco, Texas 44 57 37 57 42 / 5 40 30 10 10
Paris, Texas 41 57 37 55 39 / 5 60 30 10 5
Denton, Texas 43 53 35 59 38 / 5 40 20 10 5
McKinney, Texas 42 54 35 59 37 / 5 40 20 10 5
Dallas, Texas 46 54 37 60 42 / 5 40 20 10 5
Terrell, Texas 43 57 37 57 41 / 5 40 30 10 5
Corsicana, Texas 45 59 38 57 43 / 5 40 30 10 10
Temple, Texas 45 59 37 55 42 / 5 30 30 10 10
Mineral Wells, Texas 44 51 34 61 40 / 5 30 10 10 5