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Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Fort Worth Texas
501 am CST Monday Dec 22 2014

Aviation...
with southwest to west winds just above the surface...the
persistent stratus that we have seen for the last several days is
finally pushing off to the east. As of 11z...the back edge of the
MVFR ceilings extended from just east of kdal to just west of
kact. The stratus at should scatter at kact in the next hour or
so.

There will be a chance of light rain at the taf sites 12z Tuesday
to 00z Wednesday...but at this time it looks like ceilings will
be 5000-6000 feet.

The only concern during the taf period...is the winds today.
Expect south southwest winds around 200 degrees at 12z...to
become southwest by 15z...and northwest by 20-21z as a cold front
moves through the region. Some wind gusts over 20 knots are
likely from middle morning through the afternoon. Winds will become
northerly by 00z and speeds will decrease to around 10 knots.

58

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Previous discussion... /issued 330 am CST Monday Dec 22 2014/
when are we gonna see the sun? That has been one of our most asked
questions lately...and I think it will be today. Southwest
downslope flow has already eroded the low clouds as far east as
Fort Worth and all areas should be partly to mostly sunny by middle
afternoon...with only middle-high clouds to partially block the sun.
Winds will veer westward and then northwest today as a cold front
pushes into the area.

Clouds will increase overnight as an upper trough follows the
front. We are expecting a decent coverage of light rain...but
precipitation will be light and quantitative precipitation forecast consequently low. Tuesday morning...a
few models are hinting that it may get cold enough aloft to make a
few flurries in western/northwestern counties. There is quite a
bit of dry air below 5000 feet...and the middle layers are drying as
well so the chance of any flurries seems low. Have not added them
to the weather grids since if they occur they will not accumulate
with temperatures above freezing...but they may provide visual
interest in the aforementioned areas.

Wednesday and Thursday mornings will be cool...with the northwest
two thirds of north/central Texas possibly dropping to or just below
32. Gusty south winds on Thursday plus sun and dry air will
provide a rapid warm up and highs should be in the 60s. The dry
air and gusty winds will elevate fire weather danger
conditions...so outdoor burning should possibly be delayed for
another day.

The Friday cold front will produce highs below normal for
Saturday...and near normal for Sunday/Monday. The European model (ecmwf) does bring
a stronger trough across on Saturday...and if this feature
continues in future runs...precipitation chances will increase. Of
interest in the extended is a cutoff low in the southwest U.S. On
day 10 that could bring multiple chances at precipitation next week. 84

&&




Preliminary point temps/pops...
Dallas-ft. Worth, Texas 64 45 53 36 49 / 5 10 30 5 0
Waco, Texas 68 45 54 36 52 / 5 10 30 5 0
Paris, Texas 61 43 53 35 46 / 10 10 40 10 0
Denton, Texas 63 42 53 35 48 / 5 10 30 5 0
McKinney, Texas 63 43 52 35 48 / 5 10 30 5 0
Dallas, Texas 64 46 53 37 49 / 5 10 30 5 0
Terrell, Texas 64 46 54 36 48 / 5 10 30 5 0
Corsicana, Texas 67 47 54 36 50 / 5 10 30 5 0
Temple, Texas 69 46 54 35 52 / 5 10 30 5 0
Mineral Wells, Texas 64 41 51 33 50 / 5 30 30 0 0

&&

Forward watches/warnings/advisories...
none.

&&

$$

58/84

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