Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Fort Worth Texas
935 PM CST Sat Jan 24 2015

Update...
the current forecast looks good for the overnight period and the
next several days.

Tomorrow mornings cold front is pushing through southeast Kansas
and entering northwest Oklahoma at 9 PM. It/S wind shift should
arrive on schedule in the northwest counties 3-4 am and push
through the southeast counties at middle morning. With northwest
winds increasing to 20-25 miles per hour and dry air spreading over the
area...elevated fire weather conditions are expected generally
west through north of Fort Worth during the afternoon hours. Lows
tonight and highs for Sunday still look good.

This weekend/S system remains wet in the GFS solution while the
European model (ecmwf) solution remains much drier. If this system acts similar to
the last one...closed low near Baja California and a positively tilted upper
trough swinging down from Canada...then the wet solution of the
GFS seems more reasonable. The GFS is also advertising a potential
for snow over the northwestern counties on Sunday. However...this
potential is a long ways out and be revisited daily. 75

&&

Aviation...
/issued 559 PM CST Sat Jan 24 2015/
/00z tafs/

VFR conditions with scattered-broken cirrus expected the next 24 hour. The
only minor challenge will be timing in a cold front currently
moving through NE Colorado and Nebraska.

A cut off upper low off the Baja California peninsula will continue to surge
broken-overcast cirrus across overnight across all airports. A shortwave
trough moving southeast over the northern plains will continue to
push a cold front into the Southern Plains and into north and
central Texas by middle-late morning. The front and system will be
dry as Lower-Middle levels of the atmosphere remain dry.

Look for southwest winds 7-9 kts this evening to veer to the
northwest with the initial cold frontal passage just before 15z Sunday. As
the frontal inversion deepens and the pressure gradient
increases...northwest winds 15-20 kts with gusts 25-30 kts will
occur by late morning and through the day. The pressure gradient
will relax some with decoupling after 00z Monday with northwest
winds diminishing to around 10 kts or less. 05/

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 254 PM CST Sat Jan 24 2015/
dry northwest flow aloft will remain over North Texas through
Monday as a high amplitude ridge builds across the western half of
the nation and a trough deepens across the east. A short wave
trough will translate southeast across the northern and Central
Plains tonight and allow a cold front to move south across the
Central Plains. The front should move through all of North Texas
before midday Sunday. Wind speeds behind the front Sunday
afternoon will be in the 15 to 25 miles per hour range with some gusts to 35
miles per hour...especially across the northern half of the region. We will
hold off on issuing a Wind Advisory for now since windy conditions
should be short lived and on the low end of advisory criteria.
Afternoon highs Sunday will still be a bit warmer than today...even
though we expect a morning frontal passage...due to abundant sun and only
weak cold air advection behind the front. However...the breezy
conditions will make it feel a bit cooler.

Wind speeds will decrease quickly Sunday evening as the surface
low weakens and moves toward the East Coast. The clear sky and
light northwest winds will allow temperatures to fall mainly into the 30s
by Monday morning. Temperatures should warm quickly on Monday as
surface winds become west/southwest. Expect afternoon highs from
the middle 60s to the middle 70s.

Mild conditions will continue across North Texas Tuesday and
Wednesday as upper level high pressure builds over the state and
low level moisture returns in response to High Plains Lee
troughing. Highs Tuesday and Wednesday will be mainly in the upper
60s and 70s with lows in the 40s and lower 50s.

Another cold front will move across the region Thursday and bring
slightly cooler and breezy conditions. The cooler air will remain
in place through Friday. However...low level warm air advection
will be on the increase Friday night and Saturday ahead of an
approaching upper level low pressure system. The increase in
moisture and large scale lift will result in an increasing chance
of rain Saturday through Sunday. As of now...we do not expect any
winter precipitation with this system through Sunday as per both the
GFS and European model (ecmwf) solutions. 79

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Dallas-ft. Worth, Texas 41 66 39 66 45 / 0 0 0 0 0
Waco, Texas 38 66 37 66 42 / 0 0 0 0 0
Paris, Texas 35 63 36 65 40 / 0 0 0 0 5
Denton, Texas 35 63 35 66 40 / 0 0 0 0 0
McKinney, Texas 35 63 36 66 41 / 0 0 0 0 0
Dallas, Texas 41 65 40 65 47 / 0 0 0 0 0
Terrell, Texas 37 63 38 65 43 / 0 0 0 0 0
Corsicana, Texas 37 64 40 68 47 / 0 0 0 0 0
Temple, Texas 36 66 39 67 44 / 0 0 0 0 0
Mineral Wells, Texas 35 68 34 70 40 / 0 0 0 0 0

&&

Forward watches/warnings/advisories...
none.

&&

$$

/75

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations