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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Fort Worth Texas
349 am CDT Friday Aug 29 2014

Discussion...
an area of convection...northwest of a Bonham to Goldthwaite line
at this writing...will continue spreading southeast behind an
outflow boundary. However...it should be weakening after sunrise
and most of it should be over by late morning. If the activity
continues beyond middle morning...then it would likely diminish the
potential for afternoon convection.

An upper trough will be moving across the Great Plains today and
then into the Great Lakes on Saturday. As the shortwave moves
through the region... the subtropical high of the past several
days will split and leave a weakness aloft through the weekend.
With moist...unstable air in place...we are expecting diurnal
heating to produce scattered convection this afternoon that will
linger into the evening hours. Some strong storms are possible due
to convective available potential energy around 1800 j/kg and Li/S of minus 3 to 5. Downburst
winds of 35 to 45 miles per hour are possible. Counties generally north of
I-20...especially the Red River counties...will have the best
chance of receiving a beneficial rainfall (1/2 inch or more) today
and tonight while some southwestern counties may be totally
missed. High temperatures will be influenced by the morning
convection...if it lasts through midday. Currently...have a range
of 92 to 95 across the County Warning Area.

For the weekend...expecting highs 90 to 96 on Saturday and 92 to
98 on Sunday. We/ll maintain a chance of convection areawide on
Saturday as much of the area should be able to reach convective
temperatures in the middle 90s. Probability of precipitation will be consolidated over the
far eastern counties on Sunday as upper support wanes west to
east.

The subtropical high will re-connect across the southern states
early next week and persist through Thursday. This will bring a
return of dry weather and seasonably hot temperatures Monday
through Thursday. 75

&&

Aviation...
/issued 1151 PM CDT Thursday Aug 28 2014/
the primary aviation weather concern the first 6 hours of this
taf package will be the timing of convection and a temporary wind
shift associated with a thunderstorm outflow. A well defined
outflow boundary was along a line from Gainesville to Decatur to
Cisco at 1130 PM. This outflow will continue moving southeast at
25 miles per hour and should reach the metroplex taf sites between 06z and
07z. The passage of the outflow will temporarily turn the wind
from south/southeast to the northwest and increase speeds to
around 15 knots along with some higher gusts. Thunderstorms
forming just behind the outflow should weaken to light showers as
they move east into drier air.

The better storm chances for all taf sites will be Friday
afternoon when low level moisture increases and the atmosphere
destabilizes. Coverage of storms will be scattered since most of
the large scale forcing will be north/northeast of the region.
Therefore...we will carry thunderstorms in the vicinity between
22z and 03z at the metropolitan terminals. Thunderstorm chances will be
even less in Waco so we will not mention any storms for Friday
afternoon.

VFR conditions are expected through Friday evening with the exception
of some brief MVFR ceilings in Waco after sunrise Friday. Some
temporary visibility restrictions are also possible at any site
that experiences a thunderstorm. 79

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Dallas-ft. Worth, Texas 94 76 94 77 96 / 40 40 30 10 10
Waco, Texas 95 74 94 76 96 / 30 30 30 10 10
Paris, Texas 92 72 90 72 92 / 50 50 30 10 20
Denton, Texas 94 74 94 75 97 / 40 40 20 10 10
McKinney, Texas 93 74 92 74 95 / 50 40 30 10 10
Dallas, Texas 94 77 93 77 96 / 40 40 30 10 10
Terrell, Texas 94 75 92 74 94 / 40 40 30 10 20
Corsicana, Texas 94 75 93 74 94 / 40 30 40 20 20
Temple, Texas 94 74 93 74 96 / 30 30 30 20 10
Mineral Wells, Texas 94 73 95 73 97 / 40 40 20 10 10

&&

Forward watches/warnings/advisories...
none.

&&

$$

/75

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