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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Fort Worth Texas
301 PM CDT Tuesday Sep 2 2014

Discussion...
the convective complex over southeast Oklahoma put out an outflow
boundary at midday which moved into the northeast section of the
County Warning Area before middle afternoon. However...the convection has weakened
significantly and will trend probability of precipitation downward to 10 probability of precipitation from
Gainesville to Canton for the late afternoon period. Convection over
the southeast counties should continue to increase through late
afternoon then diminish by/around sunset.

A broad upper level high will dominate over the region Tuesday
through Friday with dry weather and normal to slightly above
normal temperatures. Tropical Storm Dolly to make landfall in
east-central Mexico later this evening. We are expecting a little
increase in middle level moisture and clouds over the southeastern
half on Wednesday...but little else.

Come this weekend...an upper trough will move across the northern
plains and Midwest with considerable convection forming along a
boundary from New Mexico to Wisconsin Thursday night into Friday.
This area of convection will continue to sink southward as precipitation
cooled air reinforces frontogenesis and forces the area farther
south each day. The convection is expected to cross the Red River
Saturday morning and then spread over most of the County Warning Area Saturday
night through Sunday evening. Have increased probability of precipitation to 30 percent
for late Saturday night and all day Sunday. However...all of the
deterministic models are showing precipitation with this
event...thus probability of precipitation may be increased in future forecasts. Right now
this does not look like a severe weather threat as shear will be
low and lapse rates near moisture adiabatic.

Dry seasonable conditions return for Monday and Tuesday of next
week. 75

&&

Aviation...
/issued 1240 PM CDT Tuesday Sep 2 2014/
taf forecast is one of persistence as VFR will prevail through
tonight before another round of MVFR stratus impacts kdal/kact
airports between 11-16z. Kdfw/kgky are forecast to be right on the
edge of the stratus deck and will show only a tempo from 13-15z
due to lower confidence. Otherwise south winds will prevail at
10-15kt through the period.

Some convection is expected northeast of the metroplex...and just
southeast of kact this afternoon. Activity will likely be just
showers and too far removed from metroplex sites for any mention
of vcsh. Likewise...convection should stay showers near Waco...but
probability is too low to include in taf at this time.

Tr.92



&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Dallas-ft. Worth, Texas 78 96 78 96 77 / 10 5 5 0 0
Waco, Texas 77 97 75 97 75 / 20 10 5 5 5
Paris, Texas 73 93 74 93 73 / 10 5 5 0 0
Denton, Texas 76 95 75 95 75 / 10 5 0 0 0
McKinney, Texas 76 94 75 94 74 / 10 5 5 0 0
Dallas, Texas 79 96 78 96 78 / 10 5 5 0 0
Terrell, Texas 77 96 76 96 76 / 10 5 5 0 0
Corsicana, Texas 78 96 75 96 76 / 20 10 5 5 5
Temple, Texas 75 97 74 97 74 / 20 10 5 5 5
Mineral Wells, Texas 74 96 74 95 73 / 5 5 0 0 0

&&

Forward watches/warnings/advisories...
none.

&&

$$

/75

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