Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth Texas
257 am CDT Friday may 24 2013
Discussion...
convection over the Edwards Plateau this morning has spun up an
mesoscale convective vortex...which is forecast to move east-northeast into southwestern North Texas.
This forcing should kick up more convection as seen in European model (ecmwf) and
GFS. NAM forecasts new convection in the northern Texas Panhandle this
morning...but recent radar shows that convection is weakening so
have disregarded the NAM/S solution of a southeast-moving mesoscale convective system
moving into western counties. Both solutions are wet for the
area...just a difference on mechanisms and local precipitation amounts.
There is also a short wave just off of central Baja California that should
track east-northeast and move into our area this afternoon or
evening...adding support to the forecast of convection moving light snow shower
NE this afternoon/evening. Not all areas will see rain...but cannot
eliminate any areas given differences in model precipitation
forecasts so probability of precipitation extend across all of North Texas.
Will keep lows mainly in the 70s and highs in the middle-upper 80s
through Sunday due to fairly high cloud cover. Next week moderate
ridging aloft and decreasing clouds will allow slightly cooler
mornings and warmer afternoons. GFS/Euro continue to differ on
precipitation chances late in the week so will not forecast rain in the
extended. 84
&&
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Dallas-ft. Worth, Texas 85 71 84 70 87 / 30 30 20 20 10
Waco, Texas 87 71 88 70 89 / 40 30 20 20 5
Paris, Texas 81 69 84 71 85 / 20 20 20 20 10
Denton, Texas 83 71 83 70 86 / 30 30 20 20 10
McKinney, Texas 84 71 85 70 87 / 30 30 20 20 10
Dallas, Texas 87 71 87 70 89 / 30 30 20 20 10
Terrell, Texas 86 71 87 70 88 / 20 20 20 20 5
Corsicana, Texas 87 71 87 71 89 / 30 30 20 20 5
Temple, Texas 86 72 87 70 88 / 40 30 20 20 5
Mineral Wells, Texas 85 71 84 69 88 / 40 30 20 20 10
&&
Forward watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&
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