Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
127 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

.AVIATION...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND A COLD FRONT WILL GENERATE ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT THE
MAJORITY OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN EAST OF NORTH TEXAS TAF
SITES...BUT SOME STORMS SHOULD STILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO WARRANT
VCTS FOR THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE
REGION WHILE THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF ALL LOCATIONS THIS
EVENING...LEADING TO QUIETER WEATHER FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

30

&&

.UPDATE...
THE MAJORITY OF THE HEAVY RAIN APPEARS TO HAVE ENDED ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS FOLLOWING THIS MORNING/S ROUND OF CONVECTION. HOWEVER...WE
ARE STILL AWAITING THE ARRIVAL OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ITS
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT...BOTH OF WHICH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THESE FEATURES WILL LIKELY PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL MODERATE RAIN AND ISOLATED AREAS OF HEAVIER RAIN THIS
AFTERNOON. FOR THESE REASONS...WE HAVE EXTENDED THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH FOR ALL OF NORTH TEXAS THROUGH 8 PM.

THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES OF NORTH TEXAS. A
SWATH OF RAIN WITH ISOLATED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ACCOMPANIES THE
BOUNDARY...AND ANY ADDITIONAL RAIN THAT FALLS ACROSS THE REGION
WILL AGGRAVATE THE ONGOING FLOODING CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY FOR
AREAS BETWEEN THE I-20 CORRIDOR AND THE RED RIVER. FARTHER
SOUTH...OVERALL PRECIPITATION HAS THUS FAR BEEN LESS THAN WHAT HAS
FALLEN ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION.
HOWEVER...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION AS CONDITIONS
DESTABILIZE AHEAD OF THE SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT. FOR THESE
REASONS...WE HAVE DECIDED TO EXTEND THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8
PM FOR ALL COUNTIES. ACTIVITY SHOULD COME TO AN END THIS EVENING
AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST AND THE COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE
REGION.

30

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 428 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015/
A STALLED 850MB FRONT STRETCHES WEST TO EAST BETWEEN THE I-20
CORRIDOR AND THE RED RIVER. A 30-35KT LLJ HAS HELPED TO INITIATE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AFTER MIDNIGHT...
AIDED BY THE LARGE-SCALE LIFT OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH. THE
STEERING FLOW IS RESULTING IN TRAINING...THE HEAVY RAIN WITH WHICH
WILL RE-AGGRAVATE FLOODING ISSUES. HOWEVER...THE TRAINING WILL
EVENTUALLY BE DISRUPTED BY THE ADVANCING MCS IN WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS...BUT THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE UNTIL A COLD
FRONT ARRIVES LATER THIS MORNING. THE LINEAR MCS WILL CONTINUE
MOVING EAST THIS MORNING...IMPACTING AREAS PRIMARILY SOUTH OF THE
I-20 CORRIDOR. DESPITE WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR...A DAMAGING WIND
THREAT WILL CONTINUE WITH THE LINE....BUT THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE
OF THE COLD POOL SUGGESTS THIS WILL WANE AS THE MORNING
PROGRESSES.

OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE MCS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME
INDISTINGUISHABLE FROM THE NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND AN ADVANCING
COLD FRONT. ALTHOUGH THE NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL SWEEP
THROUGH THE CWA TODAY...THE 850MB FRONT WILL LAG BEHIND...AND
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN
ZONES THIS AFTERNOON. AND WITH THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS NOT
PASSING OUR LONGITUDE UNTIL THIS EVENING...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL LINGER THROUGHOUT NORTH TEXAS THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY. PW VALUES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL...AND ANY OF THE
CELLS THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON COULD CONTAIN HEAVY RAIN.

AS THE TROUGH PASSES TO OUR EAST...DEEP NORTHERLY FLOW WILL ENSUE
TONIGHT. AT LONG LAST...RAIN CHANCES WILL COME TO AN END FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH EARLY SUNDAY. SUBTROPICAL RIDGING WILL THEN BUILD
IN...ALLOWING THE LONE STAR STATE A CHANCE TO DRY OUT. THE LOW IS
NOW PROGGED TO BE EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MUCH OF THE
WEEK...WHICH WILL SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE THE CHANCE OF RAIN IN EAST
TEXAS. AS A RESULT...WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST BEYOND SUNDAY
MORNING. AFTER A CLOUDY MAY...THE FIRST WEEK OF JUNE WILL GET OFF
TO A VERY SUNNY START. THE WET GROUND WILL TEMPER THE WARMING
TREND...BUT HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 80S BY LATE
IN THE WEEK.

BOTH THE GFS AND CANADIAN HINT THAT THE RIDGE COULD BREAK DOWN BY
NEXT WEEKEND...BUT THE ECMWF INTENSIFIES ITS GRIP ON TEXAS. THE
ECMWF MAY BE SWAYED TOO STRONGLY BY CLIMATOLOGY...BUT THE
SPAGHETTI SPLATTER OF GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS MEANS WE SHOULD ALSO
HAVE A SKEPTICAL EYE WITH THE GFS/CANADIAN OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS.
JUNE IS AMONG THE WETTEST MONTHS OF THE YEAR CLIMATOLOGICALLY...SO
WE SHOULD EXPECT THIS RESPITE FROM THE RAIN WILL NOT BE PERMANENT.

25



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  63  82  63  84  66 /  20   5   5   5   5 
WACO, TX              63  82  61  85  63 /  40  20   0   5   5 
PARIS, TX             60  78  60  80  62 /  30   5   0   5   5 
DENTON, TX            60  80  59  83  63 /  20   5   5   5   5 
MCKINNEY, TX          60  80  58  82  63 /  20   5   5   5   5 
DALLAS, TX            64  82  64  85  66 /  20  10   5   5   5 
TERRELL, TX           63  81  61  84  64 /  30  10   5   5   5 
CORSICANA, TX         64  81  62  84  64 /  30  20   5   5   0 
TEMPLE, TX            65  81  61  84  64 /  40  20   0   5   5 
MINERAL WELLS, TX     60  81  59  84  63 /  20   5   5   5   5 

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ091>095-
100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175.


&&

$$

30/69

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations