Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth Texas
611 am CDT Thursday Aug 28 2014
VFR will prevail with S/southeast winds increasing to near 10kt. Main
concern is potential for convection. Convection possible at kact
late this afternoon as moisture moves in from the southeast but
potential looks too low to include in taf at this time. Otherwise
convection possible in metroplex late tonight as convection moves
into the area from the west. This activity should weaken before
reaching taf sites...but not certain to occur. Will keep mention
out of taf for now as well due to low probability.
Previous discussion... /issued 325 am CDT Thursday Aug 28 2014/
a progressive upper trough over the central and southern rockies
will move across the Great Plains by Friday evening and then
become absorbed into the westerlies over the northeast part of the
country. High pressure aloft across the southern part of the
country will split as the trough arrives with one cell residing
over Southern California and the other over the southeast states.
Upstream...another upper trough will move into the Pacific
northwest Friday night...through northern rockies and northern
plains this weekend then become negatively tilted and weaken
Monday and Tuesday. As the upper trough weakens...the two upper
highs will merge across the southern states coast-to-coast
through middle week. For late next week...another upper trough will
move into the Pacific northwest with a cut-off upper low possibly
forming over or just west of central California.
For today...some isolated convection will be possible over the
southeastern half where moisture and instability is best.
Tonight...afternoon convection over the Panhandle and western
Oklahoma may push into the northwestern County Warning Area as the upper trough
moves closer to the region. Isolated to scattered convection will
also be possible over the southeastern County Warning Area.
As the upper trough moves into the plains...precipitable waters will have
increase to just under 2 inches over the region. Shortwave
lift...although much better to the north...should provide enough
forcing for scattered convection Friday afternoon and evening.
Wind profiles will not be all that strong on Friday and do not
favor tilted updrafts. Forecast soundings indicate most of the
County Warning Area will be unstable with convective available potential energy at or above 1800 j/kg and Li/S up
to minus 6. Some storms will will able to produce heavy rainfall
and strong outflow winds.
On Saturday...the upper trough will be moving east of the region
but a weakness aloft will remain over Texas over the weekend. This
weakness and daytime heating will likely produce more scattered
convection in the afternoon with areas east of I-35 having the
best chance. We have trimmed probability of precipitation Saturday night and Sunday to
only the eastern/southeastern counties as moisture and best lift
shifts east. Monday through Wednesday should be dry.
Temperatures are expected to be near normal today but slightly
below normal on Friday and Saturday due to more clouds and
scattered convection. Temperatures Sunday through Wednesday will
be in the middle to upper 90s which is near or slightly above normal.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Dallas-ft. Worth, Texas 95 77 93 76 93 / 10 30 50 40 30
Waco, Texas 97 75 94 74 94 / 20 20 40 30 40
Paris, Texas 93 73 92 71 88 / 20 30 50 50 40
Denton, Texas 94 75 92 73 91 / 10 40 50 40 30
McKinney, Texas 95 74 92 72 91 / 10 30 50 50 30
Dallas, Texas 95 78 93 76 93 / 10 30 50 40 30
Terrell, Texas 95 76 93 74 91 / 20 30 40 40 40
Corsicana, Texas 96 76 94 73 92 / 20 20 40 30 40
Temple, Texas 97 74 94 73 93 / 20 20 40 20 40
Mineral Wells, Texas 97 73 93 72 94 / 10 40 50 40 20