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Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Fort Worth Texas
925 PM CDT sun Sep 21 2014

Update...
the cold front has moved through the Red River counties and is now
working through the second tier...Jacksboro to Sulphur Springs.
Expect it to be near/along I-20 around 1 am. Temperatures are
already in the middle to upper 70s Gainesville to Bonham.

Still have some strong convection near the Red River north of
Bowie and Nocona...and around Sherman. Still expect this activity
to weaken and diminish through midnight. Thus will keep slight
chance probability of precipitation going north of the metroplex and over the northwest
counties through 1 am. The rest of the forecast remains unchanged.
Updated grids already posted. 75

&&

Aviation...
/issued 650 PM CDT sun Sep 21 2014/

For the 00z tafs...the timing of the weak cold front across area
taf sites...and any associated precipitation...is the primary
aviation weather concern.

The front has been slower to arrive than previously expected... so
went ahead and backed off the timing of the front to 03z. Because
winds are already out of the east-northeast...this delay in
frontal passage is not expected to have a large impact on dfw area
airports.

Went ahead and left precipitation out of the tafs for now as the
front will be pushing across the dfw area around 03z...or a couple
of hours after sunset. There is a pool of fairly deep moisture in
place north of the cold front...however the loss of daytime
heating is expected to stabilize the environment too much to
result in sufficient instability for new storm development. Will
continue to monitor ongoing activity behind the front...and if it
holds together this evening behind the front...may have to amend
to mention some vicinity rain showers or thunderstorms in the 4-6z
timeframe. At this time...expect storms to diminish in coverage
and intensity after sunset.

The front is expected to push south of all area taf sites by
tomorrow morning...with significantly drier air filtering into the
region. Expect light northeasterly flow and VFR/dry conditions for
several days beginning tomorrow. Cavanaugh

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 242 PM CDT sun Sep 21 2014/
a cold front is now pushing into southern Oklahoma and will cross
the Red River late this afternoon. Winds are forecast to turn to
the north ahead of the front...so frontal passage will be somewhat
subtle. Moisture over North Texas is very limited today...and the
higher moisture actually exists behind the frontal boundary where
some convection has developed over Oklahoma. Due to weak frontal
convergence...limited moisture and instability...prospects for
convection along the front look bleak. In general model guidance
is dry with the front...except for a few of the WRF models which
have isolated convection along the Red River this evening. We do
expect some convection to develop over southern Oklahoma late this
afternoon...and it may hold together long enough before
dissipating to impact the northern zones. Will keep just a slight
chance of showers/storms for the northern zones...with a silent 10
pop elsewhere. North/northeast winds should gradually increase to
near 10 miles per hour behind the front...resulting in some weak cold
advection and temperatures tonight falling into the low 60s
north...but holding in the low 70s south.

Some limited low level moisture lingers over the southern zones
tomorrow...and will keep slight chance probability of precipitation going there.
Otherwise high temperatures will be a little cooler and top out in the
low 80s north to around 90 in the south. Drier air will continue
to gradually infiltrate the region tomorrow and into Tuesday.

A stagnant upper level pattern over North America through next
weekend means we will see tranquil weather prevail for several
days behind the front. A dry airmass will remain in place over the
area with generally clear skies and light winds. This will allow
for decent radiational cooling with some pleasantly cool overnight
lows in the upper 50s to middle 60s. High temperatures will continue to remain
on the warm side...generally topping out in the 80s...but
moderating to near 90 by next weekend. Tr.92

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Dallas-ft. Worth, Texas 67 86 62 85 61 / 10 5 0 0 0
Waco, Texas 69 89 62 86 58 / 10 10 5 0 0
Paris, Texas 61 81 57 80 56 / 20 0 0 0 0
Denton, Texas 63 84 58 84 57 / 20 5 0 0 0
McKinney, Texas 63 85 55 83 53 / 20 0 0 0 0
Dallas, Texas 67 86 63 85 62 / 10 5 0 0 0
Terrell, Texas 67 86 58 84 58 / 10 5 0 0 0
Corsicana, Texas 69 88 61 85 59 / 10 5 0 0 0
Temple, Texas 69 90 62 86 59 / 10 20 5 5 0
Mineral Wells, Texas 66 86 59 85 57 / 20 5 5 5 0

&&

Forward watches/warnings/advisories...
none.

&&

$$

/75

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