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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Fort Worth Texas
351 PM CDT Friday Jul 25 2014

Discussion...
an upper level ridge will continue to dominate the weather across
north and central Texas through the weekend. The East Part of the
upper level ridge will start to weaken as an upper low currently
over western Saskatchewan...west of saskatoon...moves southeast
across the Great Lakes states. This will allow a cold front to
move down the plains to near or just south of the Red River by
Monday morning. Thus have added some 20 to 30 percent probability of precipitation along
and north of the I-20 corridor for the 06-12z Monday period. The
12z run of the GFS brings the cold front down through central
Texas Monday night. The 12z European model (ecmwf) brings the front south of the
Red River by 12z Monday to south of the I-20 corridor by
18z...but then stalls it. The European model (ecmwf) then indicates that the front
will sink south into central Texas Tuesday. We should see 20
percent probability of precipitation across all but the extreme south Monday...and a 20
percent chance across most of the region Monday night through
Wednesday.

As a series of short waves rotate around a strong upper level low
over northern Quebec...the trough in the east will deepen. This
will result in increasing northerly flow aloft across the plains.
A series of short waves will bring chances of showers and
thunderstorms for later half of the week. For now will keep the
highs probability of precipitation across the northeast half Wednesday night...and the
eastern 2/3s for Thursday. Another round of storms is possible
Thursday night and Friday.

Temperature wise...it will be a hot weekend with highs in the middle
90s to 102 degrees. We will see temperatures cool slightly early
next week...followed by additional cooler later in the week.
Exactly how much cooler on any particular day will be dependent
on cloud cover and precipitation. Right now it looks like Thursday
and Friday may be around 10 degrees below seasonal normal highs.

58

&&

Aviation...
/issued 104 PM CDT Friday Jul 25 2014/
/18z tafs/

Concerns...none.

Persistence forecast...typical late July weather with ridging
aloft. Southerly winds at the surface...generally under 12kts.
Daytime cumulus...clear at night.

No significant changes until Monday when a cold front may cross
the Red River...bringing with it the next chance of thunderstorms.

25



&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Dallas-ft. Worth, Texas 77 101 80 101 79 / 0 0 0 5 20
Waco, Texas 75 99 76 99 76 / 0 0 0 5 10
Paris, Texas 72 96 75 97 75 / 0 0 0 5 30
Denton, Texas 74 99 76 99 76 / 0 0 0 5 20
McKinney, Texas 73 98 74 100 76 / 0 0 0 5 20
Dallas, Texas 78 100 80 100 80 / 0 0 0 5 20
Terrell, Texas 74 99 76 103 77 / 0 0 0 5 20
Corsicana, Texas 74 98 76 97 76 / 0 0 0 5 10
Temple, Texas 73 98 75 98 74 / 0 0 0 5 10
Mineral Wells, Texas 75 100 74 99 74 / 0 0 0 5 20

&&

Forward watches/warnings/advisories...
none.

&&

$$

25/58

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