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Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Fort Worth Texas
538 PM CST Wednesday Feb 10 2016

Aviation...
/00z tafs/

VFR conditions expected to prevail through the period with no
major aviation concerns other than a wind shift early Thursday
morning. Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots should prevail through the
night with a weak front moving into the area Thursday morning.
Winds will become northerly 5 to 10 knots. No precipitation is
expected.

Dunn

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 316 PM CST Wednesday Feb 10 2016/
clear skies and slightly above normal temperatures observed across
the area this afternoon. Dry conditions are expected to persist
into most of the weekend although a weak front moving through the
area on Thursday will keep temperatures from getting too warm.

With the warm southwesterly flow today into tonight...we will see
markedly warmer temperatures tonight compared to last night. We
will see a weak (dry) front move through the area during the day
on Thursday which will lead to a noticeable temperature gradient
from north to south for daytime highs. This front will also knock
temperatures back down to around seasonal norms for Thursday
night.

After a pretty benign period on Friday and Saturday...the next
weather maker appears to move into the area on Sunday in the form
of a (relatively) weak shortwave. As it approaches north central
Texas on Sunday afternoon we could see a few light showers but
moisture looks to be rather limited until late in the day/evening
time frame. Kept precipitation chances around 20-30 percent through 00z
with highest chances closer to the Red River valley where better
moisture profiles exist. The best chances for measurable rain
appears to be in the early morning hours on Monday and focused in
NE Texas (generally east of I-35). Still not looking for a whole lot
in the way of quantitative precipitation forecast amounts...perhaps around a quarter of an inch
for our far NE counties.

Rain chances linger over east and NE portions of our area through
around midday Monday before quickly coming to an end as the
shortwave races through the Gulf Coast states Monday evening.
After its departure...looks like a return of dry and warm
conditions for the middle to end of next week.

&&




Preliminary point temps/pops...
Dallas-ft. Worth, Texas 47 68 40 67 41 / 0 0 0 0 0
Waco, Texas 45 76 43 72 44 / 0 0 0 0 0
Paris, Texas 41 65 37 65 39 / 0 0 0 0 0
Denton, Texas 43 65 37 66 39 / 0 0 0 0 0
McKinney, Texas 43 66 38 66 40 / 0 0 0 0 0
Dallas, Texas 47 69 41 68 43 / 0 0 0 0 0
Terrell, Texas 45 69 40 67 41 / 0 0 0 0 0
Corsicana, Texas 47 73 46 70 44 / 0 0 0 0 5
Temple, Texas 47 78 46 74 46 / 0 0 0 0 5
Mineral Wells, Texas 43 70 37 70 39 / 0 0 0 0 0

&&

Forward watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

$$

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