Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Fort Worth Texas
718 PM CDT Monday may 25 2015
Squall line continues to move east this evening and the severe
parts have pushed east of all of our counties. Will go ahead and
cancel the remainder of Tornado Watch 212. In the wake of this
line of thunderstorms...little additional development is expected
and the remainder of the evening should be cool with remnant high
cloudiness. It is likely that we will recover some behind this
system for tomorrow so will await all of the 00z guidance to see
how isolated severe convection may play out tomorrow. Other than
canceling the remainder of the watch and lowering probability of precipitation for the
overnight...the only other changes made were to low temperatures.
Temperatures are generally in the low 60s now and should change little
over the next several hours.
/issued 1236 PM CDT Monday may 25 2015/
line of storms is moving eastward and should arrive in metroplex
from west to east and affect tafs sites between 19z-22z. Strong to
severe westerly winds are likely with temporary IFR/LIFR visibility in
heavy rains. Activity should move rather quickly to the east and
expect by 6pm local and 23z to see storms east of taf sites. Will
watch for possible redevelopment behind squall line...but believe
airmass will be too worked over for an additional round.
For Waco more cellular activity is possible ahead of line and
will show a tempo from 18z to 22z.
Otherwise VFR will prevail this evening and through the overnight.
MVFR stratus should arrive by early morning. Outside of storm
influences...south winds will prevail at 10-15kt.
Additional storms possible in Tuesday afternoon but activity will
be more limited in coverage. May need thunderstorms in the vicinity in later taf issuances.
Previous discussion... /issued 253 PM CDT Monday may 25 2015/
Water vapor and radar mosaic loops show a vigorous short wave
near Childress moving northeast with a band of intense and severe
convection extending across out western counties and into the
Hill County. Ahead of this system...there were scattered clusters
of strong to severe thunderstorms. The line will continue moving
east 30 miles per hour across the rest of the County Warning Area through early evening.
Some of the hi-res models keep some of this activity going over
the far eastern and southeastern counties until 10 PM.
Afterward...think much of the County Warning Area will be quiet but have
maintained 20-30 probability of precipitation over the east/southeast after midnight.
We will be removing counties from the Tornado Watch as the line
progresses east and the threat ends to the west.
Tuesday will be another day of concern for severe thunderstorms as
forecast soundings remain very unstable and a dryline will
encroach into the far western counties. Whatever GOES up along the
dryline will have SBCAPE of 5500 j/kg to feed on...thus being capable
of producing very large hail. Elsewhere...scattered strong/severe
storms will be possible...especially where any surface boundaries
Our atmosphere will remain unstable going through the weekend and
isolated to scattered storms will be possible each day through
Monday. However...weak ridging aloft will occur Tuesday night
through Wednesday night which should provide for less storm
coverage. Southwest flow aloft returns Thursday with several
strong short waves moving across the region...thus a return to
higher probability of precipitation Thursday night through Sunday. Our upper flow becomes
more northwesterly Sunday through Monday. We will have to watch
out for upstream nocturnal convection over the Panhandle or
eastern Colorado that could affect north central Texas the first
half of next week.
Do not see any need to change our temperature forecast as lows
will be a few degrees above normal while highs average near
normal. As convection ends tonight...clouds will decrease and we
will see the sun return for tomorrow. However...a return of moist
low level flow will bring mostly cloudy skies back to the County Warning Area on
Wednesday...and this process will continue through the weekend.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Dallas-ft. Worth, Texas 63 87 70 86 71 / 10 20 30 20 20
Waco, Texas 66 86 71 86 71 / 10 20 20 20 20
Paris, Texas 63 82 68 85 69 / 100 20 30 30 20
Denton, Texas 63 86 69 86 70 / 10 20 30 20 20
McKinney, Texas 63 84 69 86 70 / 10 20 30 30 20
Dallas, Texas 64 86 71 87 71 / 10 20 30 20 20
Terrell, Texas 65 85 71 88 70 / 10 20 30 20 20
Corsicana, Texas 66 85 72 86 71 / 10 20 20 20 20
Temple, Texas 64 87 70 88 71 / 5 20 20 20 20
Mineral Wells, Texas 61 88 69 86 69 / 5 20 20 20 20
Flash Flood Watch until 9 PM CDT this evening for txz093>095-