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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Fort Worth Texas
350 am CDT Friday Apr 18 2014

Discussion...
sporadic light rain or drizzle across much of North Texas is
diminishing in coverage early this morning as weak isentropic
ascent wanes. This trend should continue through the morning with a
gradual top down drying of the atmospheric column. This will
eventually lead to a decrease in cloud cover later today and
temperatures warming into the low to middle 70s. Compact but strong
upper disturbance is passing just to our northeast this morning
and will leave subsidence in its wake aiding in scattering out the
cloud cover by this afternoon. Ahead of this disturbance...an
impressive complex of thunderstorms is moving across the eastern
Gulf of Mexico and will eventually move into the southeastern
states this afternoon.

Shortwave ridging will dominate later today and tomorrow across
North Texas resulting in a nice start to the weekend. Temperatures
will warm to near 80 degrees across most of North Texas on
Saturday with southerly winds around 10 miles per hour. Another shortwave
trough will be located across southern Arizona by Saturday evening
with forcing for ascent spreading into West Texas by Saturday
night. Scattered showers and thunderstorms should be ongoing by
late Saturday evening across West Texas but it is still a little
uncertain whether or not these will eventually affect any of our
area. The model guidance does indicate a strong surge of middle level
high Theta-E air into the area after midnight associated with the
leading edge of stronger height falls. This moisture and lift in
the presence of moderately steep lapse rates could lead to at
least isolated elevated convection late Saturday night across the
western counties...so will have 20 probability of precipitation to account for this.

On Sunday...most areas should stay dry through the day as the
trough axis will be located across the western parts of the
Panhandle Sunday afternoon. Forecast soundings indicate we will be
capped through much of the day with a lack of more significant low
level moisture. A dryline across West Texas will likely be a focus
for afternoon convective development with support from the upper
trough. A few of these storms could be strong to severe but will
likely remain west of our area through evening. Best chances for
thunderstorms across North Texas appears to be Sunday night when
the trough axis passes over the area. Given the time of
day...instability is expected to be weak across the area so the
severe threat appears very low at best.

The upper trough will translate into the lower Mississippi Valley
on Monday leaving North Texas in northwest flow behind the system.
There will be a fairly pronounced surface trough axis /weak front/
moving through North Texas during this time and the medium range
guidance is in good agreement with the timing of this feature.
With ample afternoon heating and moisture across North Texas...at
least a few storms could develop across the area...with the best
chances appearing to be south of Interstate 20. Will have some low
probability of precipitation in through Monday afternoon and will continue to monitor as
any storms that develop would have the potential to be severe
given the ample instability.

Weak ridging again passes by on Tuesday with another trough moving
into the western U.S. By midweek. It appears that the dryline will
be more active Wednesday/Thursday afternoons across West Texas and will have
to watch for any activity making it into our western counties.

Dunn

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Dallas-ft. Worth, Texas 74 57 79 61 79 / 10 5 5 20 20
Waco, Texas 74 52 79 59 79 / 10 5 5 20 20
Paris, Texas 73 53 76 57 77 / 10 5 5 10 10
Denton, Texas 72 55 78 59 79 / 10 5 5 20 20
McKinney, Texas 73 54 78 58 78 / 10 5 5 20 20
Dallas, Texas 74 58 79 61 79 / 10 5 5 20 20
Terrell, Texas 74 54 77 58 77 / 10 5 5 10 10
Corsicana, Texas 74 55 80 59 78 / 10 5 5 10 10
Temple, Texas 73 53 79 58 79 / 10 5 5 20 20
Mineral Wells, Texas 72 53 78 58 78 / 10 5 5 20 20

&&

Forward watches/warnings/advisories...
none.

&&

$$