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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Fort Worth Texas
633 am CDT sun Aug 2 2015

Aviation...
/12z tafs/

No major challenges the next 24 hours. We expect VFR conditions
and middle level ceilings between 100-150 through midday...before
scattering by this evening. Storm Prediction Center precipitable water analysis indicates 1.5-2.0
inch precipitable water values west of I-35/35w with a drier airmass further
east. Widely scattered sprinkles and showers should remain west of
a kxbp-kmwl-kmnz line and not affect any of the larger airports
across the area. Southeast winds 7-8 kts today will back east-southeast to 5 kts or
less once again by this evening.

05/

&&



Previous discussion... /issued 257 am CDT sun Aug 2 2015/
morning water vapor imagery and regional radar data are very
similar to yesterday morning with an upper ridge still centered
just to the west of North Texas. A cluster of showers and
thunderstorms is ongoing across parts of the Panhandle and will
move into western Oklahoma and northwest Texas over the next few
hours. Some cloud cover has spread into North Texas and this will
likely linger through midday. A few scattered showers or isolated
thunderstorms will be possible across our northwest counties
mainly through the late morning hours. Today will be similar to
yesterday with respect to temperatures with highs in the middle to
upper 90s and dewpoints will once again mix into the middle/upper
50s.

Low level flow will gradually become more southerly later today
and on Monday. This will eventually allow better surface moisture
to spread northward and will be most evident by Tuesday morning.
The upper pattern changes little over the next few days with the
ridge actually staying centered just to our west. North Texas will
still be hot with highs right around 100 degrees but the slight
northwest flow around the ridge may allow a few isolated storms
near the Red River Tuesday and Wednesday. The Canadian guidance
actually has a rather strong shortwave moving through the Southern
Plains on Wednesday and indicates better chances for thunderstorms
late Wednesday. For now...will maintain 10 percent probability of precipitation Tuesday
and Wednesday and monitor the potential for any precipitation.

Otherwise...ridging appears to dominate through the forecast
period with highs near 100 each afternoon through next week.

Dunn

&&




Preliminary point temps/pops...
Dallas-ft. Worth, Texas 98 77 99 79 99 / 10 5 5 0 5
Waco, Texas 98 73 99 76 99 / 5 5 5 0 5
Paris, Texas 99 71 98 74 97 / 5 5 5 0 10
Denton, Texas 98 71 99 76 99 / 10 5 5 0 10
McKinney, Texas 98 70 98 76 98 / 5 5 5 0 10
Dallas, Texas 98 78 100 81 99 / 5 5 5 0 5
Terrell, Texas 98 72 98 76 98 / 5 5 5 0 5
Corsicana, Texas 98 74 99 77 98 / 5 5 5 0 5
Temple, Texas 99 71 99 74 99 / 5 5 5 0 5
Mineral Wells, Texas 98 72 98 73 98 / 20 5 5 0 5

&&

Forward watches/warnings/advisories...
none.

&&

$$

05/91

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