Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth Texas
703 am CST Monday Dec 9 2013
drier air continues to work in from the northeast and the areas of
freezing fog continue to lift and dissipate. We will send out a
quick update to remove the freezing fog advisory along and
northeast of a Bowie...Fort Worth...to Waxahachie line.
Will also update hourly temperature/dew point grids slightly.
winds have increased to around 10 knots out of the northeast due to
a cold front which is currently pushing south through North Texas.
This has allowed visibilities to improve substantially and ceilings
to improve modestly over the past few hours. We expect the IFR
ceilings to hang around much of the morning...but should improve to
MVFR by early afternoon. North Texas taf sites will continue to
experience a backing of the wind field to more of a due-northerly
direction through 15-16z.
Meanwhile...the latest water vapor loop shows a shortwave over
New Mexico. This feature will advance quickly east across North
Texas tonight. The MVFR ceilings should clear after 10/06z as the
shortwave moves east of the area...giving way to VFR conditions
area-wide late tonight through Tuesday. Precipitation associated
with this system is expected to remain southeast of all taf
Previous discussion... /issued 402 am CST Monday Dec 9 2013/
low clouds and areas of fog will continue through middle
morning...mainly across the western two thirds of North Texas
where winds are light and the ground is saturated in many
locations. We will continue with a freezing fog advisory through
10 am generally northwest of a Gainesville...Waxahachie
to Goldthwaite line where temperatures will remain at or below
freezing. We will also keep a dense fog advisory in place south
of the freezing fog advisory where temperatures will remain above
freezing but fog will be dense at times. All visibilities should
improve above 1 mile by 10 am. Model guidance continues to hold
clouds in place at most locations though the day which will limit
surface heating...especially since a reinforcement of cool and dry
air will accompany a cold front today. Afternoon highs should warm
above freezing in all spots but not as much as previously thought.
A cold front is currently moving across the Red River as noted by
the discontinuity in dew points. The front will enter North Texas
quietly and do little more than lower dew points and bring a
slightly stronger north to northeast wind. Clouds will be on the
decrease tonight and Tuesday as an upper level trough moves east
of the region and the dry air behind the cold front gets deeper.
These conditions will allow temperatures to fall into the teens
and 20s by Tuesday morning. Therefore...residual water on roads
will likely freeze and continue to create hazardous driving
conditions in some places.
The increase in solar heating Tuesday will result in afternoon
highs in from the middle 30s to the middle 40s which will help the
thawing process across the region. Lows Tuesday night will still
fall below freezing with mainly 20s expected.
A weak ridge of high pressure will begin to build over Texas
Wednesday ahead of a developing upper trough over Baja California. Increasing
heights and abundant sun will result in afternoon highs mainly in
the 40s. Sub-freezing temperatures are expected again Wednesday night.
However...temperatures will quickly warm on Thursday as the upper
ridge strengthens over Texas and southeast to south winds return.
Rain chances will return to North Texas Thursday night/Friday as
large scale lift and low level moisture both increase. The upper
trough will move east across the region Saturday and another cold front
will move through. The passage of the front will initially bring
another chance of rain followed by drier and cooler air Saturday
night and Sunday.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Dallas-ft. Worth, Texas 36 22 40 26 48 / 5 5 5 5 5
Waco, Texas 38 24 40 27 47 / 10 10 10 5 5
Paris, Texas 37 24 40 24 47 / 5 5 5 5 5
Denton, Texas 35 19 39 25 47 / 5 5 5 5 5
McKinney, Texas 36 20 39 26 47 / 5 5 5 5 5
Dallas, Texas 36 23 37 26 47 / 5 5 5 5 5
Terrell, Texas 36 23 39 26 47 / 10 10 10 5 5
Corsicana, Texas 37 26 39 28 46 / 10 10 10 5 5
Temple, Texas 40 24 41 28 48 / 10 10 10 5 5
Mineral Wells, Texas 34 18 43 23 46 / 5 5 5 5 5
freezing fog advisory until 10 am CST this morning for txz100-
Dense fog advisory until 10 am CST this morning for txz156>160-