Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth Texas
337 PM CDT Thursday Oct 23 2014
the shortwave trough that brought the light rain showers overnight
and this morning has moved off to the east. Strong subsidence is
spreading into the region in the wake of this system and has
resulted in generally clearing skies over most of the area. The
exception is over the western zones where a cumulus cloud deck has
developed...which may end up obscuring solar eclipse viewing for
that area. These clouds should dissipate after sunset...but a
layer of high relative humidity will remain near 850mb overnight which may
result in scattered clouds redeveloping after midnight.
Regardless...a pleasant evening is forecast with light winds and
temperatures falling into the 50s for most of the County Warning Area.
Tranquil weather will prevail through the weekend...but ridging
developing aloft and lots of sunshine will result in temperatures
warming well above normal. Highs Friday will reach the low to middle
80s over the region...with highs on Saturday around 90 for many
locations. The record high Saturday for dfw is 89 and it looks in
reach...but the record for Waco is probably safe at 94. South
winds will increase on Sunday and Monday which will result in high
temperatures cooling a few degrees as Gulf moisture invades the region.
A longwave trough will track across the plains early next week
which will send a cold front into North Texas during the day
Tuesday. A shortwave is expected to track across Oklahoma on
Monday night and Tuesday morning which means convection will
likely remain north of the County Warning Area. Subsidence behind the departing
shortwave likely suggests that the front will move through dry.
However a second...and more southerly tracking shortwave will
approach the area from the west Tuesday night. This will cause the
front to stall somewhere across central Texas with isentropic lift
increasing ahead of the shortwave. The best combination of
moisture and instability will exist over the southern half of the
region where rain chances look best. Elevated instability looks
high enough for a few thunderstorms...especially south of I-20.
Since we are still a few days away...will keep probability of precipitation at 30 percent
south of I-20...20 percent along I-20...and 10 percent over the northwest
zones where the frontal layer may be too deep for rain. The
chance of rain looks to continue into Wednesday before ending as
the shortwave moves east of the area Wednesday evening.
Temperatures behind the front will return to near normal...so no
major cool down is expected with this front. Highs may end up being
cooler than forecast over the southern zones Wednesday due to the
clouds and possible rain...but confidence is not high enough yet
to go lower than the middle 70s.
Northwesterly flow aloft will set up by the end of next week which
will ensure dry and clear weather. Temperatures should gradually
cool a little more by next Friday as a Canadian high pressure
system drops south into the plains and Midwest.
/issued 1231 PM CDT Thursday Oct 23 2014/
no major concerns for this taf cycle. Middle level clouds were
diminishing from west to east as effects of the shortwave trough
move into AR/la. Expect mostly clear skies at all sites for this
afternoon into this evening. There will be some chance for a thin
layer of clouds around 5-6 kft to redevelop across parts of North
Texas after midnight...but generally expect scattered clouds with
perhaps an occasional VFR ceiling. Southeast flow will continue
through Friday morning with speeds generally under 10 kts. 09/gp
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Dallas-ft. Worth, Texas 60 85 64 90 65 / 0 0 0 0 0
Waco, Texas 56 85 60 90 60 / 0 0 0 0 0
Paris, Texas 53 80 59 87 61 / 0 0 0 0 0
Denton, Texas 55 85 60 91 61 / 0 0 0 0 0
McKinney, Texas 54 83 59 90 60 / 0 0 0 0 0
Dallas, Texas 60 84 65 90 66 / 0 0 0 0 0
Terrell, Texas 55 83 60 90 62 / 0 0 0 0 0
Corsicana, Texas 56 83 61 89 61 / 0 0 0 0 0
Temple, Texas 57 86 60 89 60 / 0 0 0 0 0
Mineral Wells, Texas 58 86 60 91 59 / 0 0 0 0 0