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Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Fort Worth Texas
606 PM CDT Wednesday Aug 27 2014

/00z tafs/

VFR conditions expected to prevail through the period with bulk of
thunderstorm activity associated with deeper tropical moisture
staying to the south. Easterly winds around 10kts will become more
southerly late tonight. Outside of some isolated convection
tomorrow afternoon no significant aviation concerns expected
through the period.



Previous discussion... /issued 319 PM CDT Wednesday Aug 27 2014/
north and central Texas are currently located between 3 upper level
weather phenomenon...and as a result its been a quiet day across
the region. The upper level ridge has been pushed northeast of the
area as a TUTT system spins offshore of the south Texas coast and
an upper level trough moves across The Rockies. So far convection
today has been occurring north...west...and south of the region but
still cannot rule out a few isolated showers or thunderstorms
through the early evening hours. The lack of convection today can
be attributed to drier air moving into the region from the east.

The low pressure system off the south Texas coast is now being
investigated by the National Hurricane Center but is unlikely to
develop into a tropical system before moving inland tomorrow. The
rich moisture surrounding this system with precipitable waters of 1.5-2 inches
will be drawn north starting tomorrow as the upper level trough
currently over The Rockies continues moving east. For tomorrow
afternoon...will carry 20 probability of precipitation across mainly the southeastern half
of the region where the richest moisture will be located. As the
upper level trough begins moving into the plains Thursday
evening...large scale lift will spread across the region from the
west. An increase in convection is expected across the western and
northern counties Thursday night as the trough moves into the
plains. Rain chances will continue through the day on Friday with
the best rain chances across the northern half of the

The upper level trough will move into the Midwest Friday night and
Saturday but broad troughing will continue over the region and
most of the Continental U.S. Saturday through Sunday. Precipitable waters will remain high
over the weekend between 1.5-2 inches. The NAM even brings precipitable water
values up to 2.5 inches on Saturday. The combination of rich
moisture and upper level troughing over the region will allow
scattered convection to continue through the weekend. The best
rain chances will be primarily along and east of the I-35/35w
corridor and will taper off from west to east on Sunday. With the
rich moisture in place through the weekend...heavy rainfall may
occur at times in isolated areas resulting in low-lying or street
flooding. Due to the scattered nature of the rain...some locations
will receive more rainfall than others. Some areas could receive
over an inch of rain through the weekend while others see little
to none.

The upper level ridge returns across the region next week with
warm temperatures returning for the start of September. On
Monday...a surface front will move into Oklahoma with convection
developing along the front. The front will not reach North Texas
but will have to monitor for any convection that may approach the
Red River or any outflow boundaries from the convection that may
reach or cross the Red River.



Preliminary point temps/pops...
Dallas-ft. Worth, Texas 78 97 77 92 76 / 10 10 30 40 40
Waco, Texas 74 97 75 93 74 / 10 20 20 30 30
Paris, Texas 71 93 73 91 73 / 10 20 40 40 40
Denton, Texas 74 96 74 91 73 / 10 10 40 40 40
McKinney, Texas 72 95 74 91 72 / 10 10 40 40 40
Dallas, Texas 79 97 78 92 76 / 10 10 30 40 40
Terrell, Texas 75 95 76 92 74 / 10 20 30 40 40
Corsicana, Texas 76 96 76 93 73 / 10 20 10 30 30
Temple, Texas 73 96 74 93 73 / 10 20 20 30 30
Mineral Wells, Texas 72 97 72 92 72 / 10 10 40 40 40


Forward watches/warnings/advisories...



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