Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth Texas
846 PM CDT Tuesday Jul 7 2015
overall the current forecast is in good shape. We still expect
rain and thunderstorms to become more numerous later this evening
along and just behind a nearly stationary front. At 8 PM the
front was located near a line from Goldthwaite to Gainesville.
Storms should become more numerous once a 35+ knot low level jet
sets up late this evening. Based on the current position of the
front...we have decided to add a few of the southwest counties to
the current Flash Flood Watch. These counties include
Mills...Erath and Comanche.
The only other change necessary to the previous forecast will be
to adjust probability of precipitation up slightly in the southeast zones based on
current radar trends and make some minor hourly temperature/dewpoint
/issued 627 PM CDT Tuesday Jul 7 2015/
Frontal boundary and associated surface low pressure system
continues to be positioned just to the northwest of the major
airports this evening. There are continuing showers and a few
thunderstorms along this boundary this evening and the trend will
be for additional development through the nighttime hours. Will
start the tafs with vcsh through the remainder of the evening with
more areal coverage of showers and a few thunderstorms overnight.
Prevailing rain/showers is likely after midnight and continuing
into the early morning hours on Wednesday. Most of the activity
should taper off by midday as ridging moves in from the west.
Farther south at Waco...scattered showers will be around but
coverage is expected to be too low to mention in the current taf.
Will amend as necessary if better coverage develops.
Otherwise...southerly winds will prevail through the period.
Previous discussion... /issued 329 PM CDT Tuesday Jul 7 2015/
lakes...but the main concern for tonight through Wednesday is a
short wave to the northwest of the area. Currently it has just
made its way into Oklahoma from the Texas Panhandle. This feature
is aiding in the development of storms near whats left of a cold
front boundary. This boundary is currently just outside the
northwest edge of the County Warning Area. The main threat this
convection poses to North Texas is heavy rain and the potential
for flash flooding. Severe weather is unlikely...but a few strong
storms with gusty winds are possible. The biggest question will be
where that boundary will end up and how much rain will fall along
it. There is also the possibility of development along any
outflow boundaries. Tonight a low level jet develops...which will
help fire up more convection. Expanded higher probability of precipitation slightly
southeast...and kept probability of precipitation across the rest of the County Warning
Area for the possibility of this isolated to scattered activity
tonight. The main area of concern will be the northwestern
counties of the County Warning Area. However...models indicate
some precipitation will fall from Sherman to Denton to the
metroplex overnight. Have expanded the Flash Flood Watch a row of
counties east into the County Warning Area to account for that.
The training of storms overnight is enough of a concern to add the
additional counties. The southwestern counties will be an area to
keep an eye on...there may be enough lift along the boundary if it
makes it that far south. Minimum temperatures have been lowered a
few degrees due to all of this activity. Models indicate that the
convection will lift slowly northeast through the next day. There
is pretty good model agreement that the convection will have
moved out of North Texas by Wednesday evening. Timing for the
watch will remain the same. Maximum temperatures for Wednesday
have been lowered by a few degrees...mostly north of Interstate
By Thursday a more typical Summer time pattern will return with
upper level ridging starting to build back in...and continue to
build through early next week. The forecast is dry during that
time...with a warming temperature trend. Winds will generally be
southerly at 10 to 15 miles per hour.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Dallas-ft. Worth, Texas 73 88 73 93 74 / 50 30 10 5 0
Waco, Texas 74 92 73 93 74 / 30 5 0 5 0
Paris, Texas 73 88 71 91 70 / 40 20 10 5 0
Denton, Texas 72 84 72 92 71 / 70 50 10 5 0
McKinney, Texas 75 87 72 92 71 / 50 30 10 5 0
Dallas, Texas 73 88 74 94 75 / 40 20 10 5 0
Terrell, Texas 76 89 73 91 73 / 30 10 5 5 0
Corsicana, Texas 76 91 75 92 73 / 30 5 0 5 0
Temple, Texas 73 91 73 92 71 / 30 5 0 5 0
Mineral Wells, Texas 70 85 71 91 69 / 80 50 10 5 0
Flash Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for txz091>093-