Scientific Forecaster Discussion

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Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Fort Worth Texas
1149 PM CDT Friday Apr 18 2014

Aviation...
have decided to add 5sm br to the kafw and kact tafs 12-14z due
to their more rural location and tendencies for cooler daybreak
temperatures and resulting smaller T/deep spreads.

Otherwise...previous forecast thinking and discussion remains on
track with VFR skies of sct-bkn250...and VFR ceilings for the
other taf sites...and light east-southeast winds tonight becoming
more southerly around 8 knots on Saturday. 75

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 324 PM CDT Friday Apr 18 2014/
an upper level ridge axis will move east of North Texas overnight
in advance of an approaching upper level low pressure
system. Low level moisture will slowly increase tonight/Saturday
morning as surface low pressure deepens Lee of the central rockies
and surface winds turn to the south/southeast. Wind speeds will
remain relatively light through sunrise and some patchy fog/mist
may develop. The visibility will not become too restricted
Saturday morning since any fog that forms should be very shallow.

High clouds will be on the increase across the region Saturday as
the upper low moves into southern Arizona/northern Mexico. Large
scale lift will remain over far West Texas Saturday afternoon and
North Texas will remain capped as warm air from the Mexican
plateau streams over the region. High temperatures Saturday
should be in the middle and upper 70s under a partly to mostly
sunny sky.

The upper low will move into New Mexico overnight Saturday and
and the combination of increasing synoptic lift coupled with steep
middle level lapse rates may result in a few elevated showers and
thunderstorms. Thunderstorm chances will increase Sunday as a
piece of the upper level energy breaks off from the main upper
trough and moves across the state. Both the European model (ecmwf) and GFS agree on
the movement of this feature and the showers and storms associated
with it. We have decided to increase probability of precipitation slightly Sunday based
on the agreement of these two solutions. It does appear that the
cap will remain in place...so any storms that do form on Sunday
will be elevated and should not pose much of a severe threat.

The main upper trough is prognosticated to open up and lift northeast
Sunday night/Monday morning. The best large scale forcing will be
across the northern zones so will keep the highest probability of precipitation there.
The upper trough axis will move east of the region Monday night
and allow a cold front to move across North Texas. A few
showers/storms may accompany the cold front...especially across
the southeast zones.

An upper level ridge will build over the central U.S. On Tuesday
and result in a mostly clear sky and no rain chances. The ridge
axis will move east of the region Wednesday as another trough
deepens across the western states. The bulk of the upper level
energy associated with this system will not affect North Texas.
However...increasing low level moisture and the approach of the
dry line on Thursday may bring a few showers/storms to the
region...especially across the western zones.

The upper trough will move east of the region Thursday
night/Friday and allow another cold front to enter North Texas. For
now it appears that the cold front will come through dry and bring
little more than slightly cooler temperatures as we head into the
last weekend of April. 79

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Dallas-ft. Worth, Texas 56 78 61 78 63 / 5 5 20 30 30
Waco, Texas 54 77 60 78 62 / 5 5 20 30 20
Paris, Texas 52 77 57 76 60 / 5 5 10 30 40
Denton, Texas 53 78 59 79 62 / 5 5 20 30 40
McKinney, Texas 53 75 57 77 61 / 5 5 20 30 40
Dallas, Texas 57 78 62 78 64 / 5 5 20 30 30
Terrell, Texas 53 77 58 79 62 / 5 5 10 30 30
Corsicana, Texas 56 77 59 78 62 / 5 5 10 30 20
Temple, Texas 54 78 58 77 62 / 5 5 20 30 20
Mineral Wells, Texas 52 77 58 76 60 / 5 5 20 30 30

&&

Forward watches/warnings/advisories...
none.

&&

$$

/75