Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Fort Worth Texas
303 PM CDT Tuesday Jul 28 2015

Discussion...

Will keep the heat advisory for the eastern Red River counties
going through Wednesday.

The upper level pattern will be in a slow transition the next few
days as the upper high over the Southern Plains shifts west into
the southern rockies and Desert Southwest as a northern rockies
upper low moves east and takes up residence over the Hudson
Bay and eastern Canada for much of next week. The shift of the
upper high to the west will open up North Texas to northwesterly
flow aloft...and a backdoor cold front Thursday night and Friday.

The cold front should reach the northeast counties on Thursday
and then move south of the County Warning Area Friday afternoon. Forecast
soundings show enough instability early on for thunderstorms with the
front Thursday through midday Friday...but then show less
instability Friday afternoon through Saturday. Thus...confidence
remains on the low side concerning convective coverage along and
behind the front and have kept probability of precipitation at 20-30 percent. As drier
air spreads into the County Warning Area Friday night through Saturday would
expect any convection potential to remain close to front.

Little change in high/low temperatures is expected through
Thursday morning. As drier air spreads over the County Warning Area behind the
cold front...dewpoints will fall into the upper 50s to lower 60s
this weekend and would allow for overnight lows in the Lower/Middle
70s. Highs in the upper 90s to 101 degrees return Sunday through
Tuesday...but suppressed dewpoints will keep heat indices below
advisory criteria. 75

&&

Aviation...
/issued 1155 am CDT Tuesday Jul 28 2015/
mostly VFR conditions are forecast through 00z Thursday. The only
exception will be in the Waco area...where some brief MVFR
ceilings are possible around sunrise Wednesday. Thus have placed
a tempo bkn015 in the Waco taf for the 13-15z period.
Otherwise...expect VFR conditions at all of the taf sites with
south winds around 10 knots. 58

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Dallas-ft. Worth, Texas 79 101 80 99 77 / 0 5 5 10 20
Waco, Texas 76 100 76 100 76 / 5 0 5 10 20
Paris, Texas 75 100 75 97 72 / 0 5 5 20 20
Denton, Texas 76 99 75 98 74 / 0 5 5 10 20
McKinney, Texas 75 100 76 98 74 / 0 5 5 20 20
Dallas, Texas 79 101 81 99 78 / 0 5 5 10 20
Terrell, Texas 75 100 77 99 74 / 5 5 5 20 20
Corsicana, Texas 76 100 77 99 76 / 5 5 5 20 20
Temple, Texas 74 99 75 98 77 / 5 0 5 10 20
Mineral Wells, Texas 73 98 74 97 74 / 0 5 5 10 20

&&

Forward watches/warnings/advisories...
heat advisory until 7 PM CDT Wednesday for txz093>095-106.



&&

$$

/75

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations