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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Fort Worth Texas
1028 am CDT Tuesday Jul 28 2015

Update...

..heat advisory issued for Grayson...Fannin...Lamar and Delta
counties this afternoon through Wednesday afternoon...

Dewpoints within the advisory area have not been mixing out like
the rest of the County Warning Area over the past few days...thus we/ve modified
the forecast dewpoints within this area through Wednesday
afternoon and the result is that afternoon heat indices increased
into the 105-108 degree range. Thus...we are issuing a heat
advisory for these four counties.

No other changes made. 75

&&

Aviation...
/issued 624 am CDT Tuesday Jul 28 2015/
/12z tafs/

VFR conditions expected to prevail through the period under
continued high pressure. Light winds this morning will be
southerly around 10kt this afternoon. At Waco this morning...some
low clouds have spread north with ceilings generally 800 to 1500ft.
Will include a couple of hours of tempo MVFR ceilings this
morning...otherwise VFR conditions will prevail through the
period. Dunn

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 240 am CDT Tuesday Jul 28 2015/
the weather pattern will gradually change through the week as the
upper level ridge axis shifts to the west and an upper trough
deepens across the eastern Continental U.S.. overall...the weather will
remain seasonably hot across North Texas with only a slight cool
down expected on the weekend.

The upper pattern is prognosticated to amplify early next week with a
building ridge in the west and a deep trough in the east. This
pattern will keep North Texas in northwest flow aloft for the
first week of August.

Some low rain chances are expected across the eastern half of the
region Thursday as a weak cold front backdoors into North Texas.
Moisture convergence along the front should result in scattered
showers and a few thunderstorms...especially Friday afternoon. A
few showers and storms may linger across the southwest zones
Friday night and Saturday before the front weakens and moves
west/southwest of the region.

Temperatures today through Thursday will be similar to the last
several days with highs ranging from the middle 90s to around 101.
Afternoon heat index values will also be similar to the last
several days with only the northeast zones briefly reaching near
105. Since only a few spots in the northeast zones will briefly
near heat advisory criteria and overnight lows will continue to
cool into 70s...we will not be issuing a heat advisory.
However...we will continue to highlight this area with a Special
Weather Statement.

A very slight cool down is expected Friday and Saturday as drier
and slightly cooler air moves in behind the cold front. Probably
the most noticeable difference will be in the overnight lows
Friday and Saturday with lower and middle 70s expected across the
entire region. The drier and cooler air will modify early next
week as low level southerly flow slowly increases. 79

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Dallas-ft. Worth, Texas 100 79 101 80 100 / 0 0 5 5 10
Waco, Texas 100 76 100 77 100 / 5 5 0 5 10
Paris, Texas 100 75 100 75 97 / 0 0 5 5 20
Denton, Texas 99 76 99 75 98 / 0 0 5 5 10
McKinney, Texas 98 75 100 75 98 / 0 0 5 5 20
Dallas, Texas 101 81 101 83 100 / 0 0 5 5 10
Terrell, Texas 99 75 100 77 99 / 5 5 5 5 20
Corsicana, Texas 101 76 100 77 99 / 5 5 5 5 20
Temple, Texas 99 74 99 75 98 / 5 5 0 5 10
Mineral Wells, Texas 100 73 99 75 98 / 0 0 5 5 10

&&

Forward watches/warnings/advisories...
heat advisory until 7 PM CDT Wednesday for txz093>095-106.



&&

$$

/75

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