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Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Fort Worth Texas
613 am CST sun Jan 25 2015

Aviation...
concerns...possible crosswind issues 16z-00z due to gusty
northwesterly winds.

Winds were becoming west northwest around 10 knots at taf
issuance time and will become northwest at 15-20 knots around 15z
as a cold front moves into the region. The pressure gradient will
be sufficient for gusts over 25 knots late morning /16z/ through
sunset /00z/. Have indicated winds at 330 degrees starting at 16z
but if they are more like 310-320 degrees...there will likely be
some crosswind issues late morning into the afternoon. Wind
speeds will then decrease to around 10 knots for the evening and
overnight hours.

58

&&



Previous discussion... /issued 350 am CST sun Jan 25 2015/
today will be the final day of northwest flow before deep ridging
aloft takes hold. Unseasonably mild weather will prevail Monday
through Wednesday...with abundant sunshine. A cold front will
arrive on Thursday...setting the stage for a cold and wet weekend
to start February.

The southwesterly surface winds overnight will veer to the
northwest today as a weak cold front sweeps through the region.
With postfrontal temperatures across Oklahoma and Kansas are in
the 40s and 50s...the cold advection will be negligible today. But
with gusty winds...highs in the 60s will feel chilly this
afternoon...even with plenty of sunshine.

The low level flow will begin backing Monday...and the descending
westerly winds in the boundary layer Monday afternoon will allow
temperatures to reach the 70s in areas west of the I-35 corridor.
Northerly 850-700mb flow on Monday will become southerly Tuesday
when high temperatures will be in the 70s regionwide. Deep
southwesterly flow will ensue on Wednesday...but veering zonal
flow aloft may usher in high cloudiness that would halt the
warming trend. But with adequate sunshine...particularly if the
surface winds can veer sufficiently...Wednesday afternoon could
end up being the warmest day of the week.

A dry cold front will surge through the region on Thursday...with
gusty north winds. More seasonal temperatures will follow Friday.
Southwesterly flow aloft will result in moist upglide above the
cool surface layer...which could result in a chilly rainy
Saturday. Arctic air will arrive on Sunday...but there is
considerable disparity among extended guidance with the extent of
postfrontal precipitation. Without adequate moistening of the
surface layer Saturday...the arrival of the Arctic air would
simply create a deeper dry layer that would yield little in the
way of precipitation. This is the European model (ecmwf) solution. The GFS maintains a
wetter scenario...albeit warmer than previous runs. Will continue
rain chances throughout the weekend (though the current forecast
only runs through saturday)...with temperatures remaining above
freezing regionwide.

25

&&




Preliminary point temps/pops...
Dallas-ft. Worth, Texas 66 38 69 46 74 / 0 0 0 0 0
Waco, Texas 67 38 69 42 75 / 0 0 0 0 0
Paris, Texas 63 36 62 41 70 / 0 0 0 0 0
Denton, Texas 65 36 68 40 72 / 0 0 0 0 0
McKinney, Texas 64 36 67 41 72 / 0 0 0 0 0
Dallas, Texas 65 40 68 47 73 / 0 0 0 0 0
Terrell, Texas 64 38 66 42 72 / 0 0 0 0 0
Corsicana, Texas 66 39 67 44 74 / 0 0 0 0 0
Temple, Texas 68 39 70 43 76 / 0 0 0 0 0
Mineral Wells, Texas 66 36 71 40 76 / 0 0 0 0 0

&&

Forward watches/warnings/advisories...
none.

&&

$$

58/25

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