Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth Texas
423 PM CST Sat Dec 7 2013
biggest issues for this forecast package: how quickly/how much
will temperatures climb above freezing tomorrow afternoon...and
what do the longer term temperature trends mean for the ultimate
melting of our ice?
All of North Texas remained in the deep freeze today...with middle
afternoon readings only managing the lower to middle 20s west of a
Sherman to Temple line. The eastern counties of our County Warning Area were only
slightly better...reaching the upper 20s-around 30 as of 3 PM.
Through this afternoon...we continue to receive reports of
significant and hazardous icing on many roadways across North
Texas. The counties closer to the Red River remain hit the
hardest...both in terms of severe travel impacts and power
Patchy very light sleet and snow...and even some freezing
drizzle...continues across most of North Texas...in response to
some weak isentropic lift occurring across the region. Based on
radar/satellite and short-term models...believe this very light
precipitation will persist through at least midnight...then fizzle out.
No additional accumulations are anticipated with this activity.
With plenty of ice on the ground and slack winds...there will be a
potential for fog formation over most of the County Warning Area after midnight.
Didn't mention any dense fog...but that could become a concern by
daybreak in a few low lying areas. Unfortunately...any fog that
develops would be of the freezing variety...and this could be an
additional significant impact on any pavement areas or other surfaces
that had managed to clear to this point. Travelers late tonight
will need to keep this in mind if they do encounter fog.
Our first chance at some sunshine will occur during the afternoon
Sunday...as drier air and weak subsidence builds into the region.
There was a substantial variation in high temperature guidance for
Sunday...and in general leaned toward the cooler GFS output.
Despite the sunshine and return to light southerly flow by
afternoon...think any melting/sublimation of extensive ice field
will retard temperatures from reaching much beyond the lower to
middle 30s across the northern tier of counties...with upper 30s
to near 40 possible farther south.
The Monday morning commute will likely still be hazardous or at
least challenging in many areas...with morning lows once again
diving below freezing at most locations. Some additional melting
will occur in the afternoon...but increased cloud cover ahead of
the next shortwave diving out of the central rockies will once
again retard a strong temperature rebound. A cold front will also
push through the County Warning Area early Monday...providing renewed cold
advection and further retarding our afternoon readings. Moisture
and ascent will not be overly substantial with this next
shortwave...but will be sufficient to maintain the small probability of precipitation
for the east and southeast zones Monday night. Believe the great
bulk of any precipitation would be in the form of rain...but with
pre-dawn temperatures Tuesday hovering at or just below
freezing...will need to mention some light freezing rain in these
Weather for the rest of the week will be benign by
comparison...and warmer day by day. The next potential for rain
will be late Thursday night through Friday night...as the next in a
series of weak shortwaves transiting the mean cyclonic flow
rotates across North Texas.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Dallas-ft. Worth, Texas 20 35 27 39 26 / 20 10 5 10 10
Waco, Texas 18 39 29 41 26 / 10 10 5 20 20
Paris, Texas 23 34 27 42 26 / 20 10 10 10 10
Denton, Texas 19 32 25 36 22 / 20 10 5 10 10
McKinney, Texas 20 33 25 39 23 / 20 10 10 10 10
Dallas, Texas 20 35 29 39 25 / 20 10 5 10 10
Terrell, Texas 22 35 28 42 27 / 20 10 10 10 10
Corsicana, Texas 24 39 31 44 29 / 20 10 10 20 20
Temple, Texas 22 43 29 42 27 / 10 10 5 20 20
Mineral Wells, Texas 16 37 23 34 20 / 10 10 5 10 10