Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth Texas
1222 PM CDT Thursday Jul 31 2014
IFR ceilings over Tarrant County are in the process of lifting to
MVFR. Will show MVFR ceilings prevailing through the afternoon...with
a gradually rising ceiling to VFR by 22z. VFR ceilings near 035 should
prevail this evening...but with nocturnal cooling these will fall
back to MVFR by 4z...any may even flirt with IFR around daybreak.
Confidence not high enough to include IFR at this point...but it
will need to be monitored. Otherwise ceilings should be slow to lift
to VFR Friday...likely not occurring until early to middle afternoon.
For Waco...appears threat for thunder will be east of taf site
this afternoon. VFR should prevail...but am watching MVFR ceilings to
the north closely to see if they can hold together and impact the
site this afternoon. MVFR ceilings should spread in by midnight and
persist through tomorrow.
Otherwise...generally 10kt north winds will prevail.
Previous discussion... /issued 339 am CDT Thursday Jul 31 2014/
the shortwave embedded in the upper level pattern that was located
over southern Colorado yesterday has pushed into North Texas
during the overnight hours and is easily visible via water vapor
imagery. Based on observations...the surface low appears to be
located just southwest of the dfw metroplex near Granbury as of
08z...with the associated cold front draped southwestward from the
low. This system brought in a mesoscale convective complex during
the overnight hours that resulted in heavy rain for our Red River
counties and this threat will continue through the morning for
areas northeast of a Bowie...to Dallas...to Palestine line.
Localized flooding has already been reported and will continue to
be a threat for the next few hours.
While most areas of the County Warning Area will see less than a quarter
of an inch of rainfall...areas northeast of the dfw metropolitan may see
amounts over an inch...with locally higher amounts possible.
Precipitable water amounts in this area will be over 2 inches and
warm cloud depths are thick...suggesting warm rain processes
dominating the area.
This convective activity is expected to continue to move southeast
across the County Warning Area this morning and should end from northwest to
southeast. High resolution model guidance suggests a rapid end to
the precipitation for our area with rainfall expected to end by
this evening. The low appears to be moving rather quickly off to the
southeast and the pendant cold front dragging from it will
continue to push through the area today. Behind the front...winds will
become northerly and conditions will begin to dry out. Weak north
winds will continue into the weekend.
Once this system moves out of the area by Friday...temperatures will
be slow to climb as the area remains under northwest flow aloft
through most of the weekend. Cold air advection and lingering cloud
cover will keep temperatures in the 80s for most of the area on
Friday. The cloud cover should diminish this weekend and highs will
range from the middle 80s to low 90s as weak north winds remain in
place over the area.
The ridge currently over the Desert Southwest will slowly build
over the coming days and edge closer to north and central Texas
however...we should stay on the periphery through much of next week.
This will allow for a gradual warming trend and could introduce
additional rain chances later in the week...should upper level
disturbances ride around the ridge and traverse close to North
Texas. Highs in the 90s will be expected through midweek and the
return of southerly flow on Tuesday will help accelerate the
warming trend but triple digits are not expected.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Dallas-ft. Worth, Texas 82 67 85 62 88 / 30 10 5 5 5
Waco, Texas 88 68 87 67 89 / 20 20 10 5 5
Paris, Texas 73 63 81 63 84 / 50 20 10 5 10
Denton, Texas 77 65 85 61 86 / 30 10 5 5 5
McKinney, Texas 77 64 83 62 86 / 50 10 5 5 5
Dallas, Texas 83 67 84 63 88 / 40 10 5 5 5
Terrell, Texas 83 69 83 65 89 / 60 20 10 5 10
Corsicana, Texas 86 70 85 65 87 / 30 20 10 5 10
Temple, Texas 88 68 90 65 89 / 20 20 10 5 5
Mineral Wells, Texas 81 65 87 64 88 / 10 10 5 5 5