Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Fort Worth Texas
802 PM CDT Thursday Aug 21 2014

Update...
the isolated thunderstorms that formed northwest of a Mineral
Wells to Gainesville line this afternoon have dissipated with the
loss of daytime heating. Have sent an updated forecast to remove
the mention of isolated early evening thunderstorms and have
adjusted the hourly grids.

58

&&

Aviation...
/issued 653 PM CDT Thursday Aug 21 2014/
/00z tafs/

Concerns...MVFR ceilings returning to kact Friday morning.

VFR conditions will prevail this evening with clear skies and south
winds 10-15 kts. The south winds will bring Gulf moisture north
overnight with MVFR ceilings returning to kact around 09-10z. Some
scattered stratus may move into the dfw metroplex but broken ceilings are
not expected. The MVFR ceilings at kact will lift and scatter by
midday. South winds of 10-15 kts with slightly higher gusts will
continue on Friday.

82/jld



&&




Previous discussion... /issued 320 PM CDT Thursday Aug 21 2014/
an upper level ridge axis will remain just east of the state
through early next week which will keep North Texas in large scale
subsidence. Overall the forecast will remain rain-free through
early next week with the exception of isolated afternoon showers
and storms across the western counties of North Texas where large
scale subsidence will be the weakest. For now...we will leave
afternoon probability of precipitation in the west at 10 percent and only mention in the
zones for the first period of the forecast.

Hot temperatures will continue through early next week with
afternoon highs in the upper 90s to around 101 and overnight lows
generally in the 70s. Afternoon heat index values should remain
just below 105 so no heat advisory will be issued at this time.
Breezy south winds the next few days will also help keep the heat
a bit more tolerable.

An upper trough is still prognosticated to develop across the western
U.S. Early next week. This trough should move east across the
central Continental U.S. By midweek and allow a cold front to enter North
Texas on Wednesday. The arrival of the front will bring cooler
temperatures and some rain chances back to North Texas as we head
into the end of August.




&&



Preliminary point temps/pops...
Dallas-ft. Worth, Texas 78 99 79 100 79 / 5 5 5 5 5
Waco, Texas 77 98 77 97 76 / 5 5 5 5 5
Paris, Texas 74 96 75 98 75 / 5 5 5 5 5
Denton, Texas 78 100 76 100 76 / 5 5 5 5 5
McKinney, Texas 76 98 74 98 75 / 5 5 5 5 5
Dallas, Texas 79 98 80 100 80 / 5 5 5 5 5
Terrell, Texas 76 97 76 98 76 / 5 5 5 5 5
Corsicana, Texas 75 96 76 97 76 / 5 5 5 5 5
Temple, Texas 75 98 75 97 74 / 5 5 5 5 5
Mineral Wells, Texas 73 100 73 100 74 / 10 10 10 10 10

&&

Forward watches/warnings/advisories...
none.

&&

$$

82/58

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations