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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Fort Worth Texas
1153 PM CDT Sat Oct 3 2015

VFR will prevail with no concerns. Just some high clouds are
expected. Otherwise north-northeast winds at 5-10kt will continue.


for this evenings update...we/ve increased the sky coverage to
better match the dense cirrus spreading over north and central
Texas. Also...adjusted hourly temperatures...dew points and winds a
little through late night. New zone package will be out shortly.

The rest of the forecast remains on track through late week as
mild and dry weather will hold through mid-week.
upper low/trough moves into West Texas and will bring an increased
chance of rain to the region...especially areas west of I-35. 75


Previous discussion... /issued 234 PM CDT Sat Oct 3 2015/
another pleasant fall day across north and central Texas today
with dew points in the 40s. Lows started off in the upper 40s and 50s
across the area but have warmed quickly into the 70s as of early
afternoon. An upper ridge overhead and surface high pressure
ridging into the region from eastern Canada were responsible for
the nice weather today. Surface ridging should continue on Sunday
and even into Monday...while the upper ridge aloft breaks down in
response to large height falls and energy digging across the
western U.S.

Southwest flow aloft developing overhead early next week will allow
an increase in middle and high the slow meandering
upper low over Southern California slowly tracks east-northeast. Surface
humidity will slowly creep up early next week...however ridging
at the surface will keep the low levels dry and the area rain-free.
Temperatures will modify to between 55 and 65 degrees for
overnight lows...while highs warm back into the 80s.

The southwest U.S upper low will continue to approach slowly from
the west middle-late week with surface flow becoming southeasterly in
response to height falls near and west of the area at the surface.
The deterministic medium range models agree fairly well on moving
the upper low over West Texas Wednesday through Thursday with
periodic shortwaves rotating northeast out over Texas. The richest
moisture will be contained west of I-35...where the highest rain
chances will be advertised Wednesday night through Thursday night...
with lesser chances across the east where rainfall is needed the
most per latest drought indices.

A lot of uncertainty begins to unfold with regard to strength and
movement of the upper low Friday into next weekend. This is not
unusual for middle level systems becoming semi-detached from stronger
westerlies and the jet stream aloft further to the north. A look
at the gefs ensemble 500mb mean height and vorticity forecasts...
along with spaghetti plots show a great deal of variability
/uncertainty/ Friday and beyond. The GFS model wants to keep the
system slowly progressive and attached to stronger westerlies to
the north...while the European model (ecmwf) retrogrades the system southwest into
western Mexico and cuts it off. The former would lend to
continuing rain chances across the area into Saturday...while the
latter would contain rain chances from southwest Texas into
Mexico. As such...confidence really wanes after Thursday on rain
chances and amounts. We will continue to monitor the situation
closely. Otherwise...expansive cloud cover and higher surface dew
points will result lows in the 60s with highs 75-85 degrees Friday
and Saturday...warming up even more on Sunday with dry weather



Preliminary point temps/pops...
Dallas-ft. Worth, Texas 58 81 61 83 64 / 0 0 0 0 5
Waco, Texas 55 84 60 86 62 / 0 0 0 0 5
Paris, Texas 53 79 58 82 62 / 0 0 0 0 5
Denton, Texas 54 80 56 82 60 / 0 0 0 0 5
McKinney, Texas 54 80 58 82 61 / 0 0 0 0 5
Dallas, Texas 58 81 62 83 65 / 0 0 0 0 5
Terrell, Texas 55 81 59 83 62 / 0 0 0 0 5
Corsicana, Texas 57 82 60 85 63 / 0 0 0 0 5
Temple, Texas 55 84 59 86 63 / 0 0 0 0 5
Mineral Wells, Texas 53 82 56 83 60 / 0 0 0 0 5


Forward watches/warnings/advisories...



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