Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth Texas
336 am CDT sun may 19 2013
Discussion...
convection continues across the plains early this morning in the
active region of a broad upper trough over the west-central Continental U.S..
showers and thunderstorms should remain well north of the Red
River this morning before redeveloping farther south into Texas
once again late this afternoon. For the short term...the main
concern would be the gusty south winds today due to a fairly tight
pressure gradient. Winds may gust at times to at or above 30
miles per hour...but at this time it appears that conditions should remain
below advisory criteria today.
Later today...storms will most likely initiate west of the region
along the dryline...which is forecast to advance east to within
20-40 miles of the western-most counties of the County Warning Area by late
afternoon. Storm motion would bring isolated activity into the
western and northwestern counties of North Texas during the late
afternoon and evening hours before the loss of surface heating
causes the storms to diminish tonight. Coverage will likely remain
sparse once again in Texas with higher coverage expected north of
the Red River in closer proximity of the upper trough. Will go
with 20 probability of precipitation this evening across roughly the northwestern half of
the region with a small area of 30 probability of precipitation near the Red River. A few
storms could be severe with large hail and damaging winds.
Instability will remain sufficient for a few severe storms over
the northwestern counties again on Monday. Probability of precipitation will be similar on
Monday as today with the best chance of storms generally north of
I-20 and west of I-35.
Rain chances will increase area-wide Tuesday through Tuesday
night as a shortwave trough swings southeastward from the Great
Basin into the Southern Plains. Showers and thunderstorms may be
ongoing north of the region Tuesday morning along a cold front.
The front should remain just north of the area...but outflow from
ongoing activity to the north...and the advancing dryline from the
west...should provide focus for additional development during the
afternoon hours. This activity should spread east and southeast
across North Texas Tuesday evening. The shortwave will continue to
propagate eastward into the southeastern u... rain
chances to end from northwest to southeast on Wednesday. The
potential for severe weather will remain highest over the
northwest counties...with decreasing potential farther south and
east due in large part to time of day. This system will be quickly
replaced with an upper ridge over the central and Southern Plains
late in the week...which would bring above normal temperatures and
low rain chances for the extended portion of the forecast.
30
&&
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Dallas-ft. Worth, Texas 92 72 89 72 89 / 10 20 10 20 40
Waco, Texas 92 73 90 73 92 / 5 10 5 10 20
Paris, Texas 89 70 87 70 83 / 10 20 10 40 40
Denton, Texas 92 71 89 70 87 / 10 30 20 30 40
McKinney, Texas 91 71 88 71 86 / 10 20 10 30 40
Dallas, Texas 92 74 90 74 91 / 10 20 10 20 40
Terrell, Texas 91 71 89 73 90 / 5 20 10 20 30
Corsicana, Texas 91 72 89 73 91 / 5 10 5 10 20
Temple, Texas 91 73 90 73 92 / 5 10 5 10 20
Mineral Wells, Texas 95 70 92 71 92 / 20 20 20 20 30
&&
Forward watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&
$$
25/30
