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Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Fort Worth Texas
1250 PM CDT Thursday Aug 27 2015

Aviation...
/18z tafs/

Concerns...none...VFR throughout.

The thunderstorm complex in eastern Oklahoma will shed some
cirrus...and persistent northerly flow aloft will clutter the
skies above North Texas. The convective activity is expected to
dissipate this afternoon...remaining well to the northeast of
metroplex sites. An unseasonably dry layer beneath the cirrus
will preclude low/middle clouds at metroplex sites. But in central
Texas...where low-level moisture is a bit more ample...scattered
daytime cumulus can be expected.

A cold front will invade the Texas Panhandle on Friday. Shower and
thunderstorm development in advance of the boundary may affect
northwest arrivals late in the day...but the activity is expected
to remain far northwest of the Bowie cornerpost.

25

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Previous discussion... /issued 342 am CDT Thursday Aug 27 2015/
the drier than normal airmass was noticeable yesterday with
dewpoints in the 50s across much of the region during the
afternoon. Although the dewpoints have come up some overnight...
this mornings lows will range from the middle 60s to lower 70s across
most of the region...which is about 5 degrees below normal for
this time of the year.

An upper level ridge over eastern New Mexico this morning will
shift to the southwest during the next 36 hours...as a shortwave
currently over Wyoming moves east across the northern and Central
Plains. As the shortwave moves east...a cold front will sink south
down the plains. This front is expected to stall near or in the
northwestern part of the forecast area Saturday. There will be low
/20 percent/ chances of showers and thunderstorms across the
northern two tiers of North Texas counties Friday night. Have
placed 10 percent probability of precipitation with no mention of showers/thunderstorms
north of I-20 for Saturday since the front will be near the region
but the upper level support will be on the decrease at this point.

Highs will be mostly in the 90s for the next week. A few spots
across the central and western zones will likely reach 100 degrees
this afternoon...and a few spots across the west may reach 100
degrees Saturday and Sunday.

The GFS...European model (ecmwf) and Canadian models indicate that an upper level
trough/low will move west into far eastern Texas Sunday
night/Monday. This system is then expected to meander across East
Texas/western Louisiana through late next week. Confidence in the
position of this system is low as there model solutions vary and
there has not been run to run model consistency on how they handle
this system. Based on the 00z runs...have just placed low probability of precipitation
over the extreme southeast Monday and Tuesday afternoons...and
across the east Wednesday.

58




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Preliminary point temps/pops...
Dallas-ft. Worth, Texas 98 74 98 75 97 / 0 0 5 10 10
Waco, Texas 98 67 99 73 98 / 0 0 0 5 5
Paris, Texas 93 67 93 70 93 / 0 0 0 20 10
Denton, Texas 98 69 99 72 96 / 0 0 5 20 10
McKinney, Texas 95 67 97 72 95 / 0 0 5 10 10
Dallas, Texas 98 74 98 76 97 / 0 0 5 10 10
Terrell, Texas 94 68 96 72 94 / 0 0 0 10 5
Corsicana, Texas 95 69 97 72 95 / 0 0 0 5 5
Temple, Texas 96 68 98 71 97 / 0 0 0 5 5
Mineral Wells, Texas 96 68 98 72 97 / 0 0 5 10 10

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Forward watches/warnings/advisories...
none.

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$$

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