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afdfwd 

Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Fort Worth Texas
629 am CDT Friday Oct 24 2014

Aviation...
/12z tafs/

Concerns...none.

All airports will see south winds 5-10 kts today...as the region
remains sandwiched between surface high pressure over the
Mississippi Valley and weak Lee-side pressure falls to the west.
A strong upper high over Arizona/nm will continue to expand slowly east
through Saturday morning. A stripe of moisture located at 800mb
early today will allow for broken VFR ceilings 5-6kft with scattered
cirrus arriving in north flow. As the upper high expands...skies
should become sky clear heading into Saturday.

05/

&&



Previous discussion... /issued 327 am CDT Friday Oct 24 2014/
ridging aloft dominates the southwestern Continental U.S. This morning with
an upper level trough lingering along the East Coast. The ridge is
expected to strengthen as it shifts east into the plains over the
next 36 hours...resulting in increasing temperatures as we head
into the weekend. Highs in the 80s this afternoon will increase
to around 90 on Saturday as the ridge axis moves overhead. The
Saturday record high temperature at dfw is 89 which is certainly
attainable /the Waco record will be more difficult to reach at 94/.

An upper trough currently approaching the 140w longitudinal line
in the Pacific will work its way east into the western U.S. On
Sunday...which will begin a weakening trend in our upper ridge.
Lee rockies surface troughing will occur on Sunday in response to
the approaching upper trough. The resulting surface pressure
gradient will bring increasing southerly winds across North Texas
on Sunday and Monday. A cold front will then advance southeastward
towards North Texas late Monday as the upper trough moves east into
the plains. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible late
Tuesday through Wednesday as the front pushes through the region.
The upper trough will have begun dampening by then while
simultaneously exhibiting a positive tilt appearance. This
typically results in less favorable upper level support on the
synoptic scale for convective development...so we do not expect
broad coverage of showers and storms. We will maintain the 20 to
30 probability of precipitation from Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday evening based on
the latest guidance...with activity occurring mainly near the
front.

Models begin to diverge late next week. The GFS indicates another
upper ridge progressing east into the plains...while the European model (ecmwf)
keeps the ridge to our west and brings a pretty strong shortwave
southeast across the Southern Plains and North Texas. If the European model (ecmwf)
is correct...we would need to include additional probability of precipitation Thursday of
next week. This would also bring cooler temperatures than
currently forecast as we head into the end of the week and next
weekend. At this time...we have trended warmer than the European model (ecmwf) but
not quite as warm as the GFS in the days 6-7 portion of the
forecast. We have also left out probability of precipitation for next Thursday-Friday for
now and would prefer to get some better model consistency before
trending one way or another on day 7.

30

&&




Preliminary point temps/pops...
Dallas-ft. Worth, Texas 85 63 90 65 88 / 0 0 0 0 0
Waco, Texas 85 60 90 61 87 / 0 0 0 0 0
Paris, Texas 81 59 86 61 86 / 0 0 0 0 0
Denton, Texas 85 60 91 62 88 / 0 0 0 0 0
McKinney, Texas 83 59 89 61 87 / 0 0 0 0 0
Dallas, Texas 85 64 90 66 88 / 0 0 0 0 0
Terrell, Texas 83 60 87 62 87 / 0 0 0 0 0
Corsicana, Texas 83 61 87 62 86 / 0 0 0 0 0
Temple, Texas 84 60 88 60 86 / 0 0 0 0 0
Mineral Wells, Texas 87 60 91 59 87 / 0 0 0 0 0

&&

Forward watches/warnings/advisories...
none.

&&

$$

05/30

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