Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth Texas
327 PM CDT Thursday Jul 2 2015
upper level high pressure will continue to build west tonight
while a trough deepens across the Central Plains. The upper trough
will move into the Red River region tonight and bring increasing
large scale lift and increasing middle level winds. This will result
in the development of some thunderstorms across Oklahoma and the
eastern Texas Panhandle. Storms that develop this evening will
move southeast toward North Texas overnight. Locations north of
Interstate 20 will have the highest storm chances overnight. We
expect the overnight activity to be ongoing Friday morning and
also produce some outflow boundaries which will most likely become
initiation points for additional convection Friday afternoon. A
few storms may become severe with large hail and damaging
winds...especially across the northeast where instability and middle
level winds will be most favorable.
Thunderstorm chances will continue Friday night through Saturday
as short wave energy rotates trough the base of the upper trough.
Locations north of the Interstate 20 corridor and east of
Interstate 35 will have the best forcing and therefore the highest
probability of precipitation. We will also linger some low chance probability of precipitation across the eastern
half of the region Sunday as another piece of energy moves through
northwest flow aloft.
The upper level ridge will begin to build in from the west Sunday
night and Monday...and bring decreasing precipitation chances.
A cold front is also prognosticated to move into Oklahoma and the Texas
Panhandle Monday night. Storms are expected to develop on the cold
front and move southeast into North Texas overnight Monday through
Tuesday. Locations west of the Interstate 35 corridor will have
the best precipitation chances on Tuesday.
The upper ridge will build over the central Continental U.S. From middle week
through next weekend and bring decreasing precipitation chances.
And slightly warmer temperatures. Several locations should reach
the upper 90s by Thursday or Friday of next week.
/issued 1249 PM CDT Thursday Jul 2 2015/
Concerns...chance for MVFR ceilings at kact late tonight-early
Friday and potential for convection affecting the dfw terminals on
Gusty south-southwest winds will continue through today and then
diminish for the overnight periods at all taf sites.
Convection across Oklahoma tonight will work southward through
Friday morning. Some rain showers activity may move into and across
portions of the the metroplex and could affect a few taf
sites...mainly kdfw and kdal through 18z. Afternoon heating should
produce a few thunderstorms and rain close kdfw...but chances of a direct hit are low
and will not include in this taf release. If convection reaches
any one of the metroplex taf sites...then ceilings should go MVFR for
a few hours. Otherwise...expect metroplex ceilings to remain VFR.
On the other hand...a layer of MVFR ceilings /015-025 bkn-ovc/ should
move across kact late tonight through late Friday morning. These
ceilings should move north-northeast and stay just southeast of the
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Dallas-ft. Worth, Texas 76 93 76 91 76 / 20 40 20 30 20
Waco, Texas 74 94 74 92 76 / 5 5 0 20 5
Paris, Texas 72 87 72 87 73 / 50 70 50 50 50
Denton, Texas 75 93 74 90 75 / 20 40 30 40 30
McKinney, Texas 73 91 73 89 74 / 20 50 30 40 30
Dallas, Texas 77 94 77 92 77 / 20 40 20 30 20
Terrell, Texas 74 92 74 91 74 / 10 20 20 30 30
Corsicana, Texas 73 93 74 91 75 / 5 20 5 30 10
Temple, Texas 73 93 73 92 74 / 5 5 0 20 5
Mineral Wells, Texas 72 94 73 93 73 / 20 20 10 20 10