Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Fort Worth Texas
637 am CDT Monday Aug 31 2015

Aviation...
VFR through Tuesday morning with mainly scattered to occasionally
broken middle and upper level clouds. A south wind will continue
at speeds generally less than 12 knots.

An isolated afternoon shower or thunderstorm is possible
today...especially south of the Interstate 20 corridor.
Coverage will be entirely too limited to mention in the Waco taf.

79

&&



Previous discussion... /issued 306 am CDT Monday Aug 31 2015/
a positively-tilted trough remains draped across the eastern two-
thirds of the Continental U.S. With an upper level ridge parked over the
Desert Southwest. Multiple shortwaves are embedded within this
broad synoptic pattern...but despite the two disturbances near
US...one to the southwest and one to the northeast...do not expect
much in the way of precipitation chances because the support is
not strong enough over US. Furthermore...do not expect much in the
way of rain or drastic temperature changes for North Texas during
the upcoming week based on our position relative to these features
and their prognosticated movement.

There is a slight chance for showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday
for our southeastern counties but am not expecting widespread
coverage or intensity...as much of the convection will likely
remain just south and east of our forecast area. Other than this
time frame...am expecting a dry forecast through next weekend.

With southerly flow persisting and the main weather-makers being
too far away from North Texas to provide any relief from the
heat...expect afternoon highs to climb into the 90s and overnight
lows to dip into the 70s...which is near normal for this time of
year. The extended forecast does look promising regarding the
eventual return of cooler temperatures and additional
rainfall...but this will likely not be until after Labor Day.

Ajs

&&




Preliminary point temps/pops...
Dallas-ft. Worth, Texas 95 76 95 77 94 / 10 10 5 5 5
Waco, Texas 93 72 93 74 94 / 10 10 10 10 10
Paris, Texas 93 72 91 71 94 / 10 5 10 10 10
Denton, Texas 95 73 94 75 95 / 10 5 5 5 5
McKinney, Texas 93 74 93 74 95 / 10 10 5 5 5
Dallas, Texas 96 78 94 77 94 / 10 10 5 5 5
Terrell, Texas 93 73 92 74 94 / 10 10 10 10 10
Corsicana, Texas 93 73 94 73 95 / 10 10 20 10 10
Temple, Texas 92 71 93 72 94 / 10 10 20 10 10
Mineral Wells, Texas 94 71 93 73 93 / 10 5 5 5 5

&&

Forward watches/warnings/advisories...
none.

&&

$$

79/81

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations