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Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Fort Worth Texas
1200 PM CST Thursday Feb 11 2016

Aviation...
/18z tafs/

No concerns...continued VFR.

Dfw/Dal are currently in north flow...and northerly surface winds
will prevail tonight and Friday. The morning front responsible
for the wind shift will be slow to make progress to the south...
and winds at central Texas airports will remain southerly until
the early morning hours Friday. The close proximity of the front
to metroplex taf sites Friday morning should result in weaker
winds above the nocturnal boundary layer...thus no repeat of low level wind shear
issues. Wind speeds may top 10kts Friday afternoon...but the
increase is not significant enough to warrant an additional line
in the tafs.

25

&&

Update...
current forecast is in good shape this morning. A weak cold front
lies draped across the dfw metropolitan area this morning and will
continue to slowly move southward through the day. Temperatures
ahead of the front across our southwestern counties are running a
few degrees above forecast and have made some minor adjustments to
hourly trends and maximum T across these areas. 99

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 238 am CST Thursday Feb 11 2016/
a weak cold front will enter North Texas today and bring slightly
cooler and drier air. Temperatures will still manage to warm into
the upper 60s and 70s in most locations under full sun. Wind
speeds will remain in the 5 to 10 miles per hour range which will keep the
fire weather conditions from becoming elevated even though
afternoon relative humidity values will fall below 30 percent in
many spots.

Strong surface high pressure will build southward out of the
northern plains on Friday and push the cold front to the Texas
coast. As a result...temperatures Friday will be 5 to 10 degrees
cooler than Thursday and wind speeds will be slightly stronger.

Cold air advection will continue Friday night through Saturday
which will keep temperatures closer to seasonal normals.

The upper flow will become zonal Saturday night and Sunday which
will result in surface Lee troughing and the return of low level
moisture to north and central Texas. Some warm air advection
showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible Sunday.
Precipitation chances will increase Sunday night/Monday
morning...especially across the east...when a shortwave trough
and associated cold front move into the region. Most of the energy
from the shortwave will remain north of the Red River. Precipitation
chances will end quickly Monday afternoon as drier and cooler air
filters in from the north.

An upper ridge will build in from the west Monday night through
Wednesday and result in quiet weather and a warming trend. High
temperatures both Tuesday and Wednesday will be in the 70s. Lows
will be in the 40s Tuesday and Wednesday morning.

79

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Dallas-ft. Worth, Texas 71 42 69 41 60 / 0 0 0 0 0
Waco, Texas 79 42 72 42 66 / 0 0 0 0 0
Paris, Texas 68 38 66 38 53 / 0 0 0 0 0
Denton, Texas 69 38 67 37 58 / 0 0 0 0 0
McKinney, Texas 69 38 66 39 57 / 0 0 0 0 0
Dallas, Texas 71 43 68 42 60 / 0 0 0 0 0
Terrell, Texas 71 41 68 40 59 / 0 0 0 0 0
Corsicana, Texas 77 46 71 44 62 / 0 0 0 5 0
Temple, Texas 80 45 73 44 68 / 0 0 0 5 0
Mineral Wells, Texas 72 38 70 37 63 / 0 0 0 0 0

&&

Forward watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

$$

25/99

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