Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth Texas
610 PM CDT Tuesday Jun 18 2013
Aviation...
convection will be focused primarily east of North Texas this
evening as an upper trough moves ever so slowly east of the area
and into the Gulf Coast states. There will still be a few isolated
storms late this afternoon and this evening due to the presence of
a weak surface front and a mesoscale convective vortex over our eastern counties. For now
it looks like storms will remain east or south of taf sites...with
subsidence developing across the rest of North Texas as an upper
ridge builds in from the west. Light northeast winds will
gradually veer to the southeast this evening as the remnant
surface front dissociates and return flow creeps back into the
area.
Farther west...a weakness in the ridge will lead to thunderstorm
development over the Texas Panhandle this evening. These storms
would likely move in our direction late tonight...but unlike the
past few nights...it looks like subsidence will prevent this
activity from reaching area terminals.
30
&&
Previous discussion... /issued 308 PM CDT Tuesday Jun 18 2013/
the remnants of this mornings mesoscale convective vortex is moving into the eastern
counties and taking the precipitation with it. We will linger low
chance probability of precipitation over the far eastern counties for the overnight hours.
Clouds have also been thinning behind this system and expect much
of the County Warning Area to be mostly clear this evening and overnight.
As for more convection late tonight and Wednesday...there is less
confidence in a repeat system tonight due to a lack of an upstream
shortwave headed our way. The upper flow should take any upstream
system across Oklahoma...if a system can form. For this reasoning
have lowered probability of precipitation to slight chance for Wednesday afternoon.
The upper ridge builds back over the region Thursday and remains
dominate through Tuesday. Residual soil moisture will slow the
warm up of maximum temperatures on Wednesday...but expect highs to be back in
the middle to upper 90s from Thursday on. Overnight lows will near
normal levels tonight and tomorrow night...but will inch upward a
little for the weekend. However...the western counties could see
lows remaining in the lower 70s Friday and over the weekend due
to dewpoints in the lower to middle 60s. No precipitation is expected
after Wednesday. 75
&&
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Dallas-ft. Worth, Texas 73 93 74 95 75 / 10 20 10 0 0
Waco, Texas 72 94 74 95 73 / 10 20 10 0 0
Paris, Texas 69 91 70 92 72 / 20 20 10 5 0
Denton, Texas 70 91 71 93 73 / 10 20 10 0 0
McKinney, Texas 69 90 73 93 73 / 20 20 10 5 0
Dallas, Texas 75 94 76 95 77 / 20 20 10 0 0
Terrell, Texas 72 92 74 94 74 / 20 20 10 5 0
Corsicana, Texas 73 94 74 95 74 / 20 20 10 5 0
Temple, Texas 71 94 72 94 72 / 10 10 10 0 0
Mineral Wells, Texas 70 93 72 94 72 / 10 20 5 0 0
&&
Forward watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&
$$
30/69
