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Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Fort Worth Texas
1121 am CST Friday Nov 28 2014

Aviation...
/18z tafs/

VFR conditions expected across most of North Texas through the
period although some low clouds may try to make a run at the
airports during the morning hours on Saturday. Currently a tight
pressure gradient across the region will result in gusty south
southwest winds which will continue into Saturday. Some low level
moisture will surge northward tonight although very strong
southwest winds just above the surface should help keep most of
the associated low clouds along and east of Interstate 35 early
Saturday morning. For now will just include a sct012 at the major
airports for Saturday morning...although MVFR ceilings are expected
east of there. Otherwise...south winds will continue through
Saturday afternoon with VFR skies.

Dunn

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 235 am CST Friday Nov 28 2014/
the upper level pattern across noam will change little over the
next seven days as a deep wintertime upper level low remains
intact over northern Hudson Bay. Farther south across our section
of the country...an upper level ridge over the western U.S. Will
flatten during the next 48 horus with near zonal flow prevailing
afterward. Within this zonal flow...a weak short wave trough will
move across the region late Sunday/early Monday as a cold front
arrives. This front may produce isolated to scattered light
showers east of the I-35 corridor on Monday...but any rainfall
will be light. Have maintained a slight chance of warm advection
showers on Thursday.

Today through Saturday...a strong surface pressure gradient will
result in strong and gusty southerly winds and warming
temperatures through the period. Some gusts up to 35 miles per hour are
possible. Currently...do not think a Wind Advisory will be
needed...but one may be required on Saturday afternoon. With lower
dewpoints presiding over the northwestern counties on
Saturday...the wind and above normal temperatures will result in
an elevated fire weather concern during the afternoon hours.

Sunday will be a slightly warmer than Saturday...but the southerly
winds will not be as strong as the pressure gradient relaxes a
little ahead of a nearing cold front. The cold front should be
able to enter the northwestern counties shortly after midnight and
roughly to a Paris to dfw and Goldthwaite line before daybreak
Monday.

As the cold front pushes through the rest of the forecast area on
Monday morning...there will be a slight chance of light showers
during the day. Otherwise...it will be noticeably cooler Monday
and Tuesday as a Canadian air mass spreads over North Texas.
Temperatures will below normal on Tuesday with morning lows in the
upper 20s over the northwest counties to the middle 40s over the
southeast. Highs Tuesday will be mostly in the low to middle 50s.

As the Canadian air mass slides east of the region on
Wednesday...a return of southerly winds will allow temperatures
to rebound back to around normal for both Wednesday and Thursday.

Day 7-10 outlook...another strong cold front is being indicated
on either Saturday /Dec 6 per GFS/ or late Sunday /Dec 7 per
European model (ecmwf). Both solutions are producing rainfall along and behind the
front with the GFS being more aggressive with a widespread
moderate to heavy rainfall event Saturday through Sunday. 75

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Dallas-ft. Worth, Texas 68 53 76 62 79 / 0 0 5 5 10
Waco, Texas 68 54 76 61 78 / 0 5 5 10 10
Paris, Texas 63 52 73 61 76 / 0 0 5 10 10
Denton, Texas 67 51 74 59 78 / 0 0 5 5 10
McKinney, Texas 65 54 74 61 76 / 0 0 5 5 10
Dallas, Texas 67 53 75 62 78 / 0 0 5 5 10
Terrell, Texas 66 54 74 61 76 / 0 0 5 10 10
Corsicana, Texas 66 55 77 62 77 / 0 5 5 10 10
Temple, Texas 69 54 76 62 77 / 0 5 5 10 10
Mineral Wells, Texas 70 48 76 55 77 / 0 0 5 5 5

&&

Forward watches/warnings/advisories...
none.

&&

$$

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