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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Fort Worth Texas
259 PM CST sun Feb 1 2015

Discussion...
dry...windy and cooler conditions were occurring across all but
our far southeast counties where the cold front is expected to
move through later this afternoon. The pre-frontal surface trough
had exited our County Warning Area with scattered showers and storms developing
along it from southeast Texas to northern Louisiana and southeast
Arkansas. Temperatures this afternoon ranged from the middle 40s
across the far northwest counties to near 70 in our far southeast
counties.

The cold front will continue to push to and off the Texas coast
tonight with support from a vigorous shortwave disturbance moving
southeast into the lower Mississippi Valley and Gulf Coast states.
Northwest winds will remain brisk and gusty through tonight...before
settling down later Monday morning. Overnight low temperatures
will range from the middle 20s across the Red River valley to the
lower 30s in central Texas. Wind chills will range between the
teens and middle 20s by sunrise. It will be a good idea to leave
with a heavy coat in the morning. Winds settle down quickly Monday
afternoon but highs will only reach into the 40s with cold air advection still
occurring.

The cold weather will be short-lived however as fast northwest
flow aloft allows for the surface high to shift east away from
the area Monday night into early Tuesday. The return of southerly
winds and warm air advection occur Tuesday and Wednesday with warmer temperatures
in advance of the southern stream disturbance over old Mexico
moving eastward. This system will gradually shift east across the
southern half of the state late Tuesday through Wednesday as the
mean layer flow aloft dampens and picks the system up. We will
continue to carry low chances for showers across the southeast
half of the County Warning Area but are not expecting high rainfall totals with
Richer Gulf moisture being suppressed across the central and
southern Gulf of Mexico from today/S cold front.

Another strong cold front arrives Wednesday night into Thursday
morning in wake of the southern stream disturbance exiting east
over the Gulf Coast states. Some isothermal saturation does occur
along the deepening frontal inversion by Thursday morning. The
problem will be a lack of substantial forcing aloft and we will
continue the mention of a cold drizzle through midday Thursday.
Middle and upper level moisture needed to seed the lower levels for
winter precipitation will be also lacking...so we do not expect
any potential for sleet or snow behind the front. There may be a
brief potential for light freezing drizzle across the northwest
counties Thursday morning... but with temperatures hovering around
freezing only for a few hours we do not expect there would be any
impacts.

Thursday will be a cold and brisk day with highs only reaching
into the 40s. We will experience a chilly morning Friday with the
surface high settling before it moves readily east out of the area
in time for the weekend. We expect another warm up next weekend
with the return of southerly winds. A ridge aloft will keep the
area dry and mostly sunny for next weekend with temperatures
warming well into the 60s and even the lower 70s for some western
areas.

05/

&&

Aviation...
/issued 1230 PM CST sun Feb 1 2015/
/18z tafs/

Concerns...MVFR ceilings...gusty north-northwest winds.

Ceilings...
MVFR ceilings will dominate through sunset...but a clear slot
upstream of the metroplex may scatter the low deck this afternoon.
With cold air stratus behind the clear slot...this scattering will
likely be temporary. The skies will clear for good by middle evening.

Winds...
northerly winds are now in place at all taf sites. Without much of
westerly component...crosswind issues are not expected to be
significant. The strongest momentum...now in Oklahoma...will reach
the metroplex middle afternoon. As such...it might appear that there
is only a brief window for sustained speeds topping 20kts...and
gusts in excess of 30kts. But nightfall will do little to temper
the winds...which will remain gusty throughout the night. With
most nocturnal gusts within 10kts of sustained speeds overnight...
gusts are not included in the taf. Regardless...gusts tonight will
often top 25kts. With early morning temperatures in the upper 20s
and lower 30s...wind chill values may dip into the teens. Outdoor
Airport personnel should be prepared for a blustery night and
morning.

25



&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Dallas-ft. Worth, Texas 27 43 35 58 43 / 5 0 0 0 5
Waco, Texas 30 46 34 57 43 / 5 0 0 10 20
Paris, Texas 24 41 29 55 38 / 5 0 0 0 5
Denton, Texas 27 43 32 58 41 / 5 0 0 0 5
McKinney, Texas 26 42 31 56 39 / 5 0 0 0 5
Dallas, Texas 27 43 34 58 43 / 5 0 0 0 5
Terrell, Texas 27 43 32 56 42 / 5 0 0 0 10
Corsicana, Texas 29 44 34 56 42 / 5 0 0 5 20
Temple, Texas 31 47 35 56 43 / 5 0 0 10 30
Mineral Wells, Texas 28 45 33 61 42 / 5 0 0 0 5

&&

Forward watches/warnings/advisories...
none.

&&

$$

/05

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