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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Fort Worth Texas
300 PM CDT Wednesday Jun 3 2015

Discussion...

A persistent forecast is expected for at least the next 6 days as
upper level ridging dominates the region. The upper level ridge is
building in from the southwest and will become centered over the
region over the weekend. By the middle of next week...the upper
level ridge is forecast to move back to the southwest as an upper
level trough develops over the plains. This pattern transition
could result in rain chances returning to North Texas and will
keep low probability of precipitation starting next Wednesday. Until then...the forecast
remains dry.

Through this forecast period...temperatures will be steady with
highs in the upper 80s and lower 90s...and overnight lows in the
middle 60s to lower 70s. Waco has already reached 90 degrees for the
year and is back at 90 degrees as of 3 PM...but dfw has yet to
reach 90 degrees this year. As of 3 PM...dfw is at 88 degrees and
may reach 90 degrees this afternoon. If dfw does not reach 90
degrees today...it likely will happen tomorrow or Friday at the
latest.

Afternoon humidity values will be slightly elevated due to near
and slightly above normal precipitable water values. As a result...afternoon
heat index values will be reading a few degrees warmer than
ambient temperature readings...but not near advisory levels.
Through the weekend...skies will be partly sunny in the afternoon
hours when a cumulus field develops...but mostly clear otherwise.
Starting Monday...we will likely see increasing high cloud cover
due to Hurricane Blanca approaching Baja California California. Wind speeds
will generally be less than 15 miles per hour through the period...mainly
from the south and southeast.

One thing we will need to monitor is the tracks of ts Andres and
Hurricane Blanca in the eastern Pacific. Currently the models
dissipate these storms as they interact with the upper level ridge
over Texas and Mexico and an upper level trough over the West
Coast...but it is not uncommon for eastern Pacific tropical
systems to be picked up by the West Coast trough and its remnants
to cross into the Southern Plains bringing rain chances to north
and central Texas. If this happens...it does not look like the
remnants would affect our area until the early to middle part of
next week.

Jldunn

&&

Aviation...
/issued 1226 PM CDT Wednesday Jun 3 2015/
there are no concerns regarding the 18z tafs with prevailing VFR
conditions expected. Diurnal and scattered cumulus are expected each
day but will have no impact on aviation. An upper level ridge will
strengthen and maintain subsidence across the area into Thursday.
Model bufr sounding indicate spotty MVFR ceilings are possible after
sunrise Thursday...but not widespread enough for an addition to
the tafs at this time.

At the surface...south winds 10-15 kts become southeast 5-10 kts
this evening and back around to the south near 10 kts on
Thursday. No weather impacts are expected.

05/



&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Dallas-ft. Worth, Texas 71 91 71 92 71 / 0 0 0 0 0
Waco, Texas 68 91 67 92 68 / 0 0 0 0 0
Paris, Texas 67 88 67 88 68 / 5 0 0 0 0
Denton, Texas 68 90 67 90 67 / 0 0 0 0 0
McKinney, Texas 68 89 68 91 67 / 5 0 0 0 0
Dallas, Texas 72 91 72 92 71 / 5 0 0 0 0
Terrell, Texas 69 91 69 91 69 / 5 0 0 0 0
Corsicana, Texas 69 90 69 90 69 / 5 0 0 0 0
Temple, Texas 67 89 67 91 68 / 0 0 0 0 0
Mineral Wells, Texas 66 90 66 91 66 / 0 0 0 0 0

&&

Forward watches/warnings/advisories...
none.

&&

$$

05/82

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