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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Fort Worth Texas
339 PM CDT Thursday Apr 17 2014

an upper level trough is moving across the state this afternoon
providing enough lift combined with increasing moisture for
scattered areas of drizzle and light rain. This light
precipitation will be ending this evening. Friday through Saturday
afternoon is expected to be dry as short-lived upper level ridging
moves east over the Southern Plains. Temperatures will quickly
warm the next few days with highs tomorrow in the 70s and highs on
Friday in the middle 70s and lower 80s. Overnight lows will also be
in the rise with overnight temperatures reaching the 60s later
this weekend.

Another upper level trough currently off the coast of California
will move onshore into Southern California on Friday
night...moving east into West Texas on Sunday. Surface winds will
remain out of the east and northeast on Friday as a strengthening
surface low moves east across the Gulf of Mexico. South winds will
return on Saturday and moisture will slowly increase as the Gulf
of Mexico finally opens up ahead of the arrival of the upper level
trough. By Saturday evening...a few embedded disturbances will
graze the region to our northwest but may provide enough lift for
a few showers and thunderstorms to develop Saturday evening and
night...mainly to the west of Interstate 35. As the main upper
level trough moves into our area on Sunday...precipitation chances
will increase with the highest probability of precipitation in the afternoon. Highest probability of precipitation
are also mainly along and north of Interstate 20 closer to the
path of the upper level trough. Forecast soundings show little in
the way of SBCAPE with most values below 500 j/kg and some sort of
cap...however...values are slightly higher closer to the Red
River. Where SBCAPE is lacking there is at least some elevated
cape present on forecast soundings. Mostly cloudy to overcast skies
throughout most of the day will likely keep the SBCAPE minimal.
Lapse rates are not overly impressive and the severe weather
threat continues to appear low for Saturday night-Sunday. The
threat for thunder appears low too but with even minimal
instability and the base of the upper level trough moving over the
region...will keep the mention of thunder. Even though the severe
weather threat looks minimal...a rogue strong to marginally severe
storm or two is possible given the time of year...possibly Sunday
afternoon when we may get some breaks in the cloud deck and the
lift from the trough will be nearly maximized.

Upper level ridging will follow behind the Sunday/Monday trough
for a few days of quiet weather. Both the GFS and European model (ecmwf) are
developing storms along the dryline to our west on Wednesday
afternoon but will maintain a dry forecast for now as the main
upper level trough will be moving into the northern plains.
Heating along the dryline combined with surface convergence will be
the main lifting mechanisms along the dryline but even the European model (ecmwf)
has south winds ahead of the dryline. Will continue to keep an eye
on the potential for storms moving into our western counties
Wednesday evening.



Preliminary point temps/pops...
Dallas-ft. Worth, Texas 55 77 59 79 64 / 20 10 10 10 20
Waco, Texas 54 75 56 78 60 / 20 10 10 10 20
Paris, Texas 50 74 55 75 59 / 20 10 10 10 20
Denton, Texas 51 75 55 78 61 / 20 10 10 10 30
McKinney, Texas 51 75 53 77 61 / 20 10 10 10 20
Dallas, Texas 55 77 59 79 63 / 20 10 10 10 20
Terrell, Texas 52 75 54 77 61 / 20 10 10 10 20
Corsicana, Texas 54 76 58 78 61 / 20 10 10 10 20
Temple, Texas 55 76 55 78 59 / 20 10 10 10 20
Mineral Wells, Texas 54 74 56 79 60 / 20 10 10 10 30


Forward watches/warnings/advisories...