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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Fort Worth Texas
1249 PM CST Tuesday Jan 27 2015

Aviation...

For the 18z tafs...VFR conditions are expected through the valid
forecast period.

Light northerly winds today are expected to veer around to the
south or southeast this evening. Winds are expected to remain
light and then pick up to 10 to 15 kts tomorrow afternoon.

The 12z forward radiosonde observation observed a dry atmosphere in place over North
Texas this morning...so confidence in VFR conditions holding in
place is fairly high. The NAM forecast soundings do indicate a
shallow saturated layer over area taf sites just before sunrise
Wednesday morning. However...do not see other models advertising
this solution at this time...and somewhat light winds overnight
are not conducive for significant moisture return. As a
result...discounted the NAM solution for low stratus or fog
tomorrow morning...but will keep an eye on other high resolution
models and surface observations through this evening.

Cavanaugh

&&

Update...

Current forecast looks on track and no significant changes were
needed for the update. Made a few minor tweaks to afternoon
temperatures but still expect afternoon highs in the 70s under
sunny skies.

82/jld

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 312 am CST Tuesday Jan 27 2015/
an upper level ridge that is centered to the west of region will move
east during the next couple of days and get flattened by a shortwave
moving across the inter-mountain west toward the northern and
Central Plains. This will result in continued warm and dry weather
through Wednesday night. Highs today will be in the 70s area-
wide...which is about 15 degrees above seasonal normals. Highs
Wednesday will also be mainly in the 70s with even some lower 80s
possible west of the I-35 corridor.

As the aforementioned shortwave moves out across the northern and
Central Plains...a cold front will move south into the Texas
Panhandle Wednesday and into the northwestern part of North Texas
before daybreak Thursday. This front will move through central
Texas before sunset Thursday. Highs on Thursday will be closer
to...but still above seasonal normals...ranging from the lower
60s along the Red River to around 70 degrees in the southeastern
zones.

Clouds will be on the increase from the southwest Thursday night
as isentropic upglide increases above the frontal boundary. Some
light rain should develop by Friday morning across the western
zones and approach the I-35 corridor during the afternoon. Rain
chances will increase area-wide Friday night and Saturday as
isentropic upglide continues and an upper level trough digs into
the southwestern United States. A piece of the upper level trough
will cut off and dig southward into Baja California California by Sunday
night and the rest of the system will merge with a shortwave
moving in the northern branch. This should result in at least a
temporary end of the rain Sunday night. The European model (ecmwf) and GFS differ
on how they handle the Baja California system from this point Onward with the
European model (ecmwf) weakening the low and moving it more quickly east while the
GFS keeps a slower moving closed low. Have followed the GFS
solution for the Monday/Tuesday time period...which has the Baja California
system moving east across northern Mexico and across deep south
Texas next Tuesday night/Wednesday morning. Given this have
indicated that rain chances will return Monday night through
Tuesday across the southern zones.

58




&&



Preliminary point temps/pops...
Dallas-ft. Worth, Texas 48 77 53 64 39 / 0 0 5 5 5
Waco, Texas 44 77 53 68 41 / 0 0 5 5 5
Paris, Texas 43 73 51 62 36 / 0 0 5 5 0
Denton, Texas 43 77 49 63 38 / 0 0 5 5 5
McKinney, Texas 42 75 51 63 37 / 0 0 5 5 5
Dallas, Texas 49 77 54 64 40 / 0 0 5 5 5
Terrell, Texas 45 75 53 65 39 / 0 0 5 5 5
Corsicana, Texas 48 75 53 66 41 / 0 0 5 5 5
Temple, Texas 45 77 51 68 41 / 0 0 5 5 5
Mineral Wells, Texas 46 81 48 65 38 / 0 0 5 5 5

&&

Forward watches/warnings/advisories...
none.

&&

$$

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