Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Fort Worth Texas
606 am CST Tuesday Mar 3 2015
Concerns...IFR fog/drizzle this morning...frontal passage Wednesday morning.
Southerly winds will ensue this morning...but with ample moisture
upstream...ceilings and visibility will only gradually improve. Despite
a warming boundary layer...a persistent inversion will keep MVFR
ceilings in place today. Showers and isolated thunderstorms this
afternoon will primarily impact East Texas...thus have chosen to
exclude them from the tafs.
Ceilings and visibility will steadily deteriorate tonight. More
widespread precipitation will approach from the west after
midnight as the initial wind shift reaches metroplex taf sites.
A transition to freezing/frozen precipitation may occur Wednesday
afternoon...but this is beyond the scope of the 12z tafs.
Previous discussion... /issued 400 am CST Tuesday Mar 3 2015/
a dense fog advisory will remain in effect through 10 am for the
entire forecast area. A warm front is forecast to lift north
through the forecast area today scouring out the remaining shallow
cold airmass that has plagued the region since late last week.
Temperatures will rise into the upper 50s northeast to around 70
across the southwest this afternoon. These will be the warmest
temperatures that we have had since two saturdays ago /February
21st/. There will be a chance of showers area wide this afternoon.
Models show a little instability...so have placed isolated
thunderstorms across the eastern third.
A strong cold front will sweep down the plains today...moving
into the northwestern zones by midnight...and to the I-20 corridor
toward daybreak Wednesday. This front will then move through The
Temple-Killeen area by midday Wednesday. Much colder air will
accompany this front. We will see a chance of showers area wide
tonight and maybe some isolated thunderstorms.
As temperatures fall behind the front...some light freezing rain
will be possible in the northwestern zones Wednesday morning...and
as temperatures continue to fall...some freezing rain and sleet
will be possible across the northwestern half before sunset
Wednesday. Precipitation types are a challenge...as the NAM
soundings are a little warmer...slower with the cold air...than
the GFS. Have leaned closer to the GFS and thus placed
rain/freezing rain and some sleet across the northwestern half for
Wednesday afternoon. We should then see a transitioning over to a
sleet/snow mix across the northern 2/3s and freezing rain/sleet
mix across the south for Wednesday evening. The GFS forecast
sounding shows that the warm nose aloft disappears by 00z Thursday
at dfw but hangs on at Waco past 06z Thursday. The precipitation
should shut off by daybreak Thursday across the northwestern
third. Some light snow is possible into Thursday morning across
most of the rest of the forecast area. Some freezing rain/sleet
will be possible across the extreme southeast Thursday morning.
Precipitation amounts look to be light at this time. Will hold off
on issuing a Winter Weather Advisory for Wednesday
afternoon/Wednesday night at this time.
The cold weather will continue through Friday before a moderating
trend begins. Low rain chances will return to the south Saturday
and Saturday night as a short wave slides across south Texas.
Otherwise expect dry weather with temperatures returning to near
seasonal normals for the beginning of next week.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Dallas-ft. Worth, Texas 63 39 40 25 41 / 40 70 90 60 10
Waco, Texas 60 52 54 29 40 / 30 50 90 70 20
Paris, Texas 62 41 41 19 41 / 50 90 90 60 10
Denton, Texas 63 36 37 21 40 / 40 70 90 50 10
McKinney, Texas 60 37 39 24 41 / 50 70 90 60 10
Dallas, Texas 62 40 41 25 41 / 40 70 90 60 10
Terrell, Texas 62 42 44 26 41 / 50 70 90 70 20
Corsicana, Texas 62 48 54 29 39 / 40 60 90 70 20
Temple, Texas 60 55 57 28 39 / 30 40 80 70 20
Mineral Wells, Texas 67 39 39 21 40 / 30 70 80 40 10
dense fog advisory until 10 am CST this morning for txz091>095-