Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Fort Worth Texas
1110 PM CST Tuesday Nov 25 2014

Aviation...
VFR through period. Winds back southwest tonight...then veer back
to the northwest tomorrow morning behind a weak dry front. 84

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 313 PM CST Tuesday Nov 25 2014/
the axis of an upper level trough extends from Missouri to
central Texas this afternoon...and can be seen on satellite
shifting east across the state. Northwest flow will become
established aloft across the region as the trough axis shifts east
of North Texas this evening...and this regime will remain in place
for the next couple of days. This pattern will result in another
cool front pushing south through the area on
Wednesday...reinforcing the cool and dry conditions currently in
place. Pleasant days and clear chilly nights will be the resulting
forecast through Friday.

Upper level winds will become more zonal aloft Friday through the
weekend....with a broad Flat Ridge in place overhead and a deep
upper low slowly approaching the West Coast. The approaching low
will induce Lee rockies surface troughing on Saturday. North Texas
will sit between the Lee trough to the west and a surface ridge to
the east...creating good return flow across the region this
weekend. We leaned towards the warm side of guidance for high
temperatures on Saturday and Sunday due to broad ridging aloft and
south winds at the surface. Meanwhile...an Arctic front which is
expected to become dislodged by a shortwave over Canada later this
week will be pushing south through the plains over the weekend.
The push of the Arctic airmass will be hindered by return flow at
the surface...impeding the southward advance of the cold front.
The most recent model runs seem to indicate that the front will
cross the Red River into North Texas counties on Monday...and
possibly become stationary briefly before retreating to the north
in advance of the storm system to our west.

Low probability of precipitation will be carried over eastern counties Monday and Tuesday
of next week where decent moisture will reside ahead of the
front...and warm advection showers will be possible. Better
chances for rain will occur around the middle of next week...when
the West Coast upper low moves east into west-central Texas. The
latest European model (ecmwf) indicates a deeper system...with better instability
and more widespread convection when compared to the GFS...which
indicates a more open and progressive system. Either way...we will
likely see decent chances for precipitation return to the region
just beyond the day 7 period in the forecast...or around Wednesday
of next week. 30

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Dallas-ft. Worth, Texas 40 64 38 61 43 / 5 0 0 0 0
Waco, Texas 39 68 36 63 40 / 5 0 0 0 0
Paris, Texas 36 63 34 58 38 / 5 0 0 0 0
Denton, Texas 37 64 32 61 39 / 5 0 0 0 0
McKinney, Texas 36 64 34 60 39 / 5 0 0 0 0
Dallas, Texas 41 64 39 61 44 / 5 0 0 0 0
Terrell, Texas 39 64 36 61 38 / 5 0 0 0 0
Corsicana, Texas 40 66 37 63 41 / 5 0 0 0 0
Temple, Texas 38 69 37 64 41 / 5 0 0 0 0
Mineral Wells, Texas 35 63 32 62 39 / 5 0 0 0 0

&&

Forward watches/warnings/advisories...
none.

&&

$$

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations