Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Fort Worth Texas
602 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015
VFR conditions will prevail through 00z Monday.
Southwesterly winds will prevail across the region through early
Sunday afternoon. Winds will then become more southerly during
the afternoon and southeasterly during the evening as a backdoor
cold front approaches from the northeast.
Isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop along the dry line
in West Texas Sunday afternoon. Some of this activity may approach
the I-35 corridor Sunday evening. Thus have placed thunderstorms in the vicinity in the
extended portion of the dfw taf starting at 02z Monday.
Previous discussion... /issued 328 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015/
a Pacific cold front had moved through all of North Texas at middle
afternoon. The dry air associated with this air mass will remain
in place tonight but will steadily modify on Sunday in response to
a developing low pressure system in the west. Large scale lift
will be on the increase Sunday as an upper low moves across New
Mexico. A dryline will also mix eastward on Sunday and should be
the focus for some isolated thunderstorms in the west late Sunday
afternoon. Any storms that develop Sunday afternoon should hold
together as they lift northeast across the region Sunday night.
Therefore we will keep chance probability of precipitation in place Sunday night with the
best chances across the western half of the region. There will be
enough instability and shear to support a few severe storms with
large hail and damaging winds. The low level shear should be more
than sufficient to even support an isolated tornado
threat...especially late Sunday afternoon into early Sunday
Showers and thunderstorms will become more numerous on Monday as a
cold front backdoor into the region from the northeast and the
upper low moves into the Panhandle. The best rain/storm coverage
should become oriented along and behind the cold front. There will
be a potential for strong to severe storms on Monday but the
bigger threat may be localized flooding...especially across the
southeast zones where precipitable water values will exceed 1.5
Rain and thunderstorm chances will continue Monday evening but
should decrease from southwest to northeast as the upper low moves
east across Oklahoma and allows a much cooler and drier airmass to
filter into the region. There is a potential for some wrap around
showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday. All precipitation should
end across North Texas Tuesday night as the dry air gets deeper
and the upper low moves east.
Upper level high pressure will build over the state Wednesday
through Saturday and bring dry weather and near seasonal
temperatures with highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Dallas-ft. Worth, Texas 63 90 64 71 54 / 5 20 40 60 60
Waco, Texas 62 87 64 76 54 / 5 20 40 50 40
Paris, Texas 58 86 58 67 53 / 5 10 40 60 70
Denton, Texas 56 88 59 69 52 / 5 20 50 60 60
McKinney, Texas 57 88 58 69 53 / 5 10 40 60 70
Dallas, Texas 65 90 63 70 54 / 5 10 40 60 60
Terrell, Texas 63 89 62 72 55 / 5 10 40 60 70
Corsicana, Texas 66 85 67 73 54 / 5 10 40 60 60
Temple, Texas 65 87 65 80 54 / 5 20 40 40 40
Mineral Wells, Texas 56 87 65 74 55 / 5 30 50 60 40