Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth Texas
1145 PM CDT Tuesday may 21 2013
Aviation...
/06z tafs/
MVFR ceilings continue to clear from west to east tonight as the axis
of an upper level trough swings through the region. All taf
locations will finally be VFR by the start of the taf period and
redevelopment of low ceilings is not expected again. However...with
moist ground soils and light and variable winds overnight...fog
will likely develop generally along and east of Interstate 35. The
fog will likely be mostly ground fog and will keep visibility
reductions in the 2-5 sm range for now. However...it is possible
that some locations could see reductions closer to 1 sm.
Fog conditions are expected to improve by 14-15z. The winds will
become more southeasterly on Wednesday.
82/jld
&&
Update...
showers and thunderstorms southeast of a Sulphur Springs...
Corsicana...Temple line will continue to move east for the rest of
the evening. Have left some 20 percent probability of precipitation in past midnight in
the southeastern most zones...but we may be able to remove that
later this evening. Thunderstorms are still occasionally producing
some dime to nickel hail and that will likely continue through
11 PM.
The high resolution rapid refresh is indicating fog mainly east
of I-35 before daybreak. Given the wet ground from todays rain
and light winds expected overnight...will do another update in
the next half hour to add the mention of patchy fog along and
east of the I-35 corridor.
58
&&
Previous discussion... /issued 327 PM CDT Tuesday may 21 2013/
we will be dropping counties along and northwest of a Sherman to
Weatherford...Glen Rose and Goldthwaite line from the Tornado Watch with
the release of the afternoon forecast package.
The cold front will continue to push southeast at nearly 30 miles per hour
at middle afternoon and it should clear the far southeastern counties
early this evening...around 7pm. The convection has mostly been a
straight line wind producer with many sites reporting gusts 50-70
miles per hour. Denton ASOS reported a gust to 73 miles per hour at 138 PM. We will
continue to ride with a Tornado Watch for the remainder of the County Warning Area
late this afternoon since a discrete cell or two could develop
ahead of the cold front.
Cooler temperatures and northwest winds will spread over most of
the County Warning Area behind the cold front this evening. Expecting the coolest
overnight lows...middle 50s to lower 60s...over the northwest one
half in the morning where skies should clear tonight.
A longwave ridge will build over The Rockies on Wednesday with
northwest flow aloft over the region through Thursday. Weak
impulses in this upper flow could result in elevated showers or
thunderstorms Wednesday night and again on Thursday night. The
Thursday night system may develop into an mesoscale convective system over the Texas Panhandle
and some of this activity may spread over the County Warning Area on Friday as a
backdoor cold front slides into the northeast counties.
The upcoming Memorial Day weekend is looking dry and seasonably
warm...but many times in the past this weekend has turned out to
be a stormy one. For now will keep Sat-Monday dry with highs in the
upper 90s to middle 90s and lows in the middle 60s to lower 70s.
75
&&
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Dallas-ft. Worth, Texas 60 88 67 90 70 / 20 10 10 10 10
Waco, Texas 61 89 67 92 70 / 20 10 10 10 10
Paris, Texas 59 84 61 86 65 / 40 10 10 10 10
Denton, Texas 59 86 63 88 68 / 10 10 20 10 10
McKinney, Texas 60 87 63 89 68 / 20 10 10 10 10
Dallas, Texas 61 90 70 92 70 / 20 10 10 10 10
Terrell, Texas 61 87 64 91 69 / 30 10 10 10 10
Corsicana, Texas 62 89 67 92 70 / 40 10 10 10 10
Temple, Texas 62 89 67 92 69 / 40 20 10 10 10
Mineral Wells, Texas 58 89 64 91 69 / 10 10 20 10 20
&&
Forward watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&
$$
82/58
