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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Fort Worth Texas
659 am CDT Friday may 29 2015

the rain has ended along and west of the I-35 corridor for this
morning. Expect mostly MVFR ceilings this morning...though a few
sites will have IFR ceilings for a few hours. Expect conditions to
improve to VFR by 18z. Scattered thunderstorms may develop this
afternoon as noted by the thunderstorms in the vicinity between 20-01z. Starting at 01z
have just gone with rain showers...though thunderstorms are possible
throughout the evening. MVFR ceilings should redevelop after
01z...with some IFR ceilings possible by 09z Saturday. A cold
front is expected to bring a wind shift to the northwest at the
metroplex taf sites...middle to late morning Saturday.



Previous discussion... /issued 416 am CDT Friday may 29 2015/
a potent shortwave...the last in a long line of southwest flow
events...invaded North Texas late Thursday. Training convection
with the associated mesoscale convective system has resulted in overnight rainfall amounts
of more than 3 inches in and near the Dallas/Fort Worth metroplex.
Areas in west and northwest Dallas have tallied 4 to 5 inches...
resulting in significant flash flooding. The main line of
convection will continue plodding into East Texas today...but an
expansive stratiform rain region will persist in its wake. By 4
am...the back edge of the precipitation shield had reached Graham...
Breckenridge...and Eastland.

Although subsidence will initially suppress redevelopment today...
southerly flow and deep moist advection has already ensued across
West Texas...and afternoon MLCAPE values will soar to near
2000j/kg. Afternoon activity in North Texas should be primarily
scattered...but a few strong/severe cells will be possible...
mainly across far western zones. The main focus for initiation
will be an approaching cold front...which will stretch from
Lubbock to Oklahoma City late this afternoon. The frontal
convection will likely congeal into a linear mesoscale convective system that will surge
through north and central Texas tonight into Saturday morning.
This may appear to be yet another widespread nocturnal rain we have seen multiple times this week...but this one
will be associated with a significant late season cold front. The
850mb boundary will be close on the heels of the surface front...
assuring a much thinner line of convection than what we
experienced early this morning. And with veering flow aloft...the
speed of the mesoscale convective system should limit the duration of precipitation at any
one location. Regardless...the entire region remains
waterlogged...and any additional rainfall could quickly re-
aggravate flooding issues. The Flash Flood Watch will remain in
effect for all of north and central Texas through midday Saturday.

The cold front will steadily move south across the region on
Saturday. Clouds may linger...and with unseasonably strong low-
level cold advection...afternoon temperatures on Saturday may
remain in the 70s in many locations. Rain chances will steadily
decrease into early next week as subtropical ridging builds in
from the west at long last. Troughiness will persist in the lower
Mississippi Valley...which will keep some low daytime rain chances
as far west as East Texas into the middle of next week. But for
the bulk of week looks to be a prolonged period of
rain-free weather and a long-awaited chance to dry out.



Preliminary point temps/pops...
Dallas-ft. Worth, Texas 84 68 80 64 82 / 70 60 60 30 10
Waco, Texas 85 68 82 63 82 / 80 50 60 40 20
Paris, Texas 80 67 77 62 79 / 80 50 60 30 20
Denton, Texas 82 66 78 61 81 / 60 60 60 20 10
McKinney, Texas 82 67 79 61 80 / 80 60 60 30 10
Dallas, Texas 84 69 81 64 82 / 80 60 60 30 10
Terrell, Texas 84 68 80 63 82 / 80 50 60 30 20
Corsicana, Texas 83 68 81 65 81 / 80 50 60 40 20
Temple, Texas 84 68 81 63 82 / 80 40 60 50 30
Mineral Wells, Texas 82 66 78 61 80 / 50 70 60 30 10


Forward watches/warnings/advisories...
Flash Flood Watch through Saturday morning for txz091>095-




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