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Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Fort Worth Texas
645 am CDT Friday Sep 4 2015

Aviation...
/12z tafs/

Concerns: MVFR ceilings at Waco Regional Airport through middle morning
along with isolated convection nearby this afternoon. VFR is
expected elsewhere.

An upper high continues over north and central Texas airports this
morning...but is not overly strong. A seabreeze boundary is
expected to generate a few rain showers and thunderstorms and rain late this morning along
the Upper Texas coast before moving well inland by middle afternoon.
Isolated showers and thunderstorms may occur in and around Waco
Regional Airport but coverage is not high enough for any mention
in the taf at this time. We will continue a brief tempo group at
Waco for MVFR ceilings early this morning as well. Dfw will be VFR
through Saturday morning with scattered clouds at multiple levels.

Southeast winds will continue at all airports between 5-10 kts.

05/

&&



Previous discussion... /issued 322 am CDT Friday Sep 4 2015/
Summer is here to stay for the next few days as the upper level
ridge remains parked over the region through the Labor Day
Holiday weekend. This will result in warming temperatures with
several areas...mainly along and west of Interstate 35...reaching
99-100 degrees Sunday and Monday. A few isolated showers or storms
are possible this afternoon south of a line from Athens to
Killeen. Hi-res model guidance is again developing widely
scattered convection across the region this afternoon but expect
suppression underneath the upper level ridge will win out and
have confined the mention to isolated thunderstorms to only the
area listed above where the sea breeze may aid in convective
development. Hi-res model guidance is developing more widely
scattered convection across the region on Saturday but there is
little evidence of vertical motion underneath the ridge. The
models are suggesting there will be an increase in
moisture...evident within the precipitable waters ...but otherwise there does not
appear to be any forcing for convective development and will leave
convective wording out of the official forecast for Saturday.

The upper level pattern will undergo a significant change next
week during which the upper level ridge will break down across the
region. A series of shortwaves will move through the plains
causing the upper level ridge to weaken and eventually shift to
our west. Upper level troughing will then set up over the eastern
half of the Continental U.S....including Texas...by Thursday. This pattern
change will allow a front to slide into the region either on
Wednesday or Thursday. The official forecast representing a model
consensus will bring the front into North Texas on Thursday...but
the latest 00z European model (ecmwf) is now bringing the front into North Texas on
Wednesday. Confidence at this time is low regarding how far south
the front will sink and it may stall somewhere across the region.
Unfortunately...this front will not bring the Fall-like weather
that everyone is waiting for. The main upper level energy will
remain well displaced to our north...thereby preventing
significantly cooler air from spilling down the plains...but it
will bring cooler temperatures and a chance for rain to north and
central Texas. Temperatures behind the front will be in the 80s
for highs which will be a welcome relief from the near triple
digit heat this weekend. At this time...the best rain chances
follow the progression of the front Wednesday night and Thursday
but these will be subject to change as the timing of the front is
further refined.

Jldunn

&&




Preliminary point temps/pops...
Dallas-ft. Worth, Texas 96 77 98 79 99 / 5 5 10 5 5
Waco, Texas 95 75 96 75 99 / 10 5 5 5 5
Paris, Texas 94 73 94 74 95 / 5 5 10 10 10
Denton, Texas 95 76 96 76 98 / 5 5 10 5 5
McKinney, Texas 94 75 96 76 98 / 5 5 10 5 5
Dallas, Texas 97 79 98 79 99 / 5 5 10 5 5
Terrell, Texas 93 74 95 75 97 / 5 5 10 5 10
Corsicana, Texas 93 75 97 76 98 / 5 5 10 5 10
Temple, Texas 93 74 96 74 97 / 10 10 5 5 5
Mineral Wells, Texas 94 73 96 73 97 / 5 5 10 5 5

&&

Forward watches/warnings/advisories...
none.

&&

$$

05/85

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