Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Fort Worth Texas
625 am CDT Sat Aug 1 2015
A weak and ill-defined surface front was draped from central Texas
northwest into west-central Texas and the South Plains. A shortwave
disturbance aloft was moving southeast over the top of the upper
high across the eastern Texas Panhandle with scattered showers and
storms occurring in a corridor defined from Amarillo...to Childress...
to near Abilene.
No major concerns regarding regional airports today...as any
isolated to scattered convection is expected to remain to the west.
There is a remote chance that western North Texas convection could
produce outflow boundaries further east and affect dfw area airports
this afternoon or early evening...but confidence is low of this
Otherwise...VFR with scattered low-middle clouds with occasional broken
high clouds. Light winds this morning become east-southeast around 6 kts
today...then become southerly near 10 kts by middle morning Sunday.
Previous discussion... /issued 255 am CDT Sat Aug 1 2015/
water vapor imagery this morning shows the upper ridge now
centered to our west with a couple of clusters of convection
riding east-southeast around it primarily affecting the Panhandle.
At the surface...temperatures have cooled into the low to middle 70s
outside of urban areas but there is a noticeable difference in
moisture from west to east across the region. Dewpoints are in the
upper 50s and lower 60s east of Interstate 35 with upper 60s and
lower 70s to the west. This shallow low moisture should mix to the
west fairly quickly today allowing most areas to see dewpoints in
the 50s by this afternoon. This will make temperatures in the middle
to upper 90s feel quite tolerable. There will still be some
potential for scattered thunderstorms this afternoon mainly across
our far western counties...similar to areas that saw some storms
yesterday. Moisture will be pooled along the remnants of the old
frontal boundary and there will be some weak upper forcing
spreading south around the ridge. Will keep the 20 probability of precipitation going into
the evening hours across the northwest. Any storms that develop
could produce some gusty winds.
As we head into late tonight...the guidance is fairly consistent
with sending a weak shortwave out of Oklahoma and into North
Texas. This could help generate some showers and thunderstorms
during the early morning hours on Sunday...primarily in Oklahoma
which should in turn move in this general direction. It is likely
that any convection would develop in a narrow corridor of enhanced
low level warm advection aided by a strengthening low level jet.
The NAM and Canadian are most aggressive with the development of
convection while the other guidance has the forcing but doesnt
develop any precipitation. We will keep 10 probability of precipitation in for now but if
it appears more likely that thunderstorms will develop...we will
likely have to revise our cloud cover and temperature forecast for
Sunday as more extensive cloud cover would likely be in place.
Either way...both this afternoon and Sunday afternoon will be warm
with highs in the upper 90s to near 100 degrees...but the dry air
will make it feel much more comfortable than previous days. As we
move into next week...temperatures will continue to warm by a few
degrees as the ridge builds back into the area...but increasing
southerly flow will help pull in more moisture as well. This
should push heat indices back into the 102 to 105 degree range by
Monday afternoon. No significant rain chances are on the horizon.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Dallas-ft. Worth, Texas 97 75 98 77 99 / 10 5 10 5 5
Waco, Texas 98 71 99 74 99 / 10 5 5 0 5
Paris, Texas 96 70 97 71 99 / 0 5 5 0 5
Denton, Texas 97 70 98 72 99 / 10 10 10 5 5
McKinney, Texas 97 70 97 72 98 / 10 5 10 5 5
Dallas, Texas 98 76 99 78 100 / 10 5 10 5 5
Terrell, Texas 97 72 98 73 99 / 5 5 5 0 5
Corsicana, Texas 98 72 98 75 99 / 0 5 5 0 5
Temple, Texas 98 70 99 73 99 / 10 5 5 0 5
Mineral Wells, Texas 95 70 97 72 99 / 10 10 10 10 5