Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth Texas
918 PM CDT Monday Mar 10 2014
water vapor loop shows the center of the upper low somewhere
between Uvalde and Cotulla at 900 PM. Clouds and a few showers
will continue to move east across The Hill Country and south Texas
tonight. There is an outside chance that a few showers could move
across the southern portions of North Texas so we will keep slight
chance probability of precipitation in the forecast tonight.
The current forecast is in good shape so no major changes are
needed with this update.
Concerns...MVFR conditions overnight tonight. Very strong north
winds behind a cold front Tuesday evening.
VFR conditions are expected this evening and into the early night
hours. South winds between 5-11 kts will prevail. Broken ceilings
between 4000-5000 feet will move into Waco shortly while some
high clouds are observed in the metroplex.
Low level stratus is expected to affect kact beginning about 09z
tonight. Ceilings will be below 1500 feet. Due to southwest winds
above the surface...the stratus is expected to largely remain east
of the metroplex airports but may see few-scattered cloud bases around
1500 feet early Tuesday morning. Some patchy fog is also possible
tonight with the return of low level moisture and will prevail 4sm
at all sites late tonight/early Tuesday morning. The winds will
increase to 15-20 kts...from the southwest...during the day
Tuesday with possible gusts around 25 kts. The increasing winds
will clear out any stratus and fog that may be around...leaving
only some high clouds for the remainder of the day.
In the extended...a strong cold front will move into the region
Tuesday evening...reaching the metroplex 02-03z and 05-06z at
kact. Strong north winds sustained 20-30 kts with gusts up to 40
kts will occur Tuesday night behind the front.
Otherwise...conditions are expected to remain VFR behind the front.
Previous discussion... /issued 302 PM CDT Monday Mar 10 2014/
Showers over the central Texas counties should diminish around 6
PM with none expected overnight. South winds tonight will draw
moisture north overnight and help keep lows in the upper 40s to
middle 50s. There could be some fog over the southeast sections late
tonight through early Tuesday morning...but do not expect any
Tuesday will be warmer and windy as a surface low deepens across
Kansas and Oklahoma and moves east. Some dry air will move into
the western counties and expect a grass Fire Danger Statement to
be issued west of a Comanche to Bowie line for afternoon humidity
falls into the teens. As the surface low reaches Missouri late in
the afternoon...a cold front will start moving southeast through
the region. Deep unidirectional north flow up to 50 knots is
expected Tuesday night and on Wednesday. The strongest winds
should begin about 2 hours after frontal passage with sustained speeds of 20
to 35 miles per hour and gusts up to 45 miles per hour. On Wednesday...the strong and
gusty winds will continue through the morning hours...then begin
to weaken middle to late afternoon. A Wind Advisory will be needed
Tuesday night through Wednesday midday. Wednesday will also be
noticeably cooler with highs in the 50s. Cold air advection
continues Wednesday night as winds diminish even more...thus we
will see lows in the 30s with many rural areas seeing lows at or
just below freezing.
Thursday through Sunday...temperatures will be warming
through the period with much of the region in the upper 60s to
lower 70s on Saturday. Temperatures with be a little cooler on
Sunday behind a weak front. The European model (ecmwf) model has come into better
agreement with last night/S and today/S GFS run and GFS ensembles.
The GFS series remain dry during the period and is preferred...thus
have removed probability of precipitation from the weekend. If the European model (ecmwf) does pan
out...then 20-30 probability of precipitation for showers and thunderstorms would be
justified as it has southerly low level flow...higher low level
moisture and a short wave trough passing through the region. On
the other hand...the GFS has a light northerly low level flow on
Saturday and no short wave or low level moisture. 75
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Dallas-ft. Worth, Texas 53 82 41 56 34 / 5 5 0 0 0
Waco, Texas 49 79 40 58 30 / 10 5 0 0 0
Paris, Texas 50 81 40 54 30 / 5 0 0 0 0
Denton, Texas 50 83 37 56 30 / 5 5 0 0 0
McKinney, Texas 50 80 38 56 32 / 5 5 0 0 0
Dallas, Texas 54 82 42 56 36 / 5 5 0 0 0
Terrell, Texas 51 78 41 56 32 / 5 5 0 0 0
Corsicana, Texas 52 79 43 57 33 / 10 5 0 0 0
Temple, Texas 49 77 40 58 31 / 20 5 0 0 0
Mineral Wells, Texas 48 87 35 56 30 / 5 0 0 0 0