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Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Fort Worth Texas
722 am CDT sun Sep 21 2014

/12z tafs/

Concerns...none...wind shift but dfw/Dal already in north flow.

With a surface ridge draped across north and central Texas...
predawn winds are calm. This weak ridge will shift west this
morning...and light northeasterly winds will ensue around midday.
A weak cold front will arrive around sunset...but with northeast
winds already in place...its passage will be nearly
indistinguishable to the aviation community...marked only by
gradual backing winds with slightly increasing speeds.



Previous discussion... /issued 329 am CDT sun Sep 21 2014/
an upper ridge will remain established over the region today with
highs slightly above seasonal the lower 90s. Surface
dew points in the 60s will make for one more very warm and humid
day. Higher column moisture over the western counties will retrograde
slowly west ahead of the approaching cold front expected into the
area tonight. The upper ridge appears to retrograde slightly west
as well by this evening with weak northerly flow aloft supporting
a frontal passage through much of the area into Monday. Low rain
chances are expected north of I-20 through this evening...though
upper support will be lacking. The northwest counties should see
the best chances through sunset being they will be along the
eastern periphery of the Richer moisture. Instability just ahead
of the front may briefly allow for a strong storm early this
evening with gusty winds. Otherwise... widespread beneficial
rainfall is not expected with the passage of the cold front.

Northeast winds behind the cold front tonight will usher in drier
air with any cold air advection expected to be weak. Low probability of precipitation will shift to central
Texas Monday with the cold front. Temperatures early this week
will be cooler with less humid conditions the first half of the
week. The surface high shifts into the Ohio and Tennessee valleys
late in the week which will allow a slow return of Gulf moisture
with highs warming into the upper 80s. The drier airmass will provide
more comfortable conditions...especially at night where mostly
clear skies will provide good radiational cooling conditions. Look
for low temperatures between 55 and 65 degrees Tuesday through

An upper low currently over California and western Nevada will open
up and lift out over the central and northern plains early this
week. This system will stall across the plains due to a blocking
Omega upper high anchored over the Great Lakes into New England.
An axis of moisture will tail southwest across the western part of
the state and allow low diurnal rain chances for that area but
will remain to far west for rain chances around our area. The
blocking upper pattern across the eastern half of the Continental U.S. Will
linger into next weekend with an upper low cutting off over the
western Continental U.S.. dry conditions are expected to continue through
next weekend. The next possible chance for rain may be early next
week. As is typical...the extended range models show disagreement
on system timing and any potential for significant rain chances.



Preliminary point temps/pops...
Dallas-ft. Worth, Texas 93 69 87 64 84 / 5 20 5 0 5
Waco, Texas 92 70 90 65 86 / 5 20 10 5 5
Paris, Texas 88 61 81 58 80 / 20 20 5 0 5
Denton, Texas 92 66 86 61 83 / 10 20 5 0 5
McKinney, Texas 92 66 86 59 83 / 10 20 5 0 5
Dallas, Texas 92 70 87 65 85 / 5 20 5 0 5
Terrell, Texas 94 68 87 60 84 / 5 20 5 0 5
Corsicana, Texas 93 71 89 62 86 / 5 20 10 0 5
Temple, Texas 92 70 91 66 85 / 5 10 20 5 10
Mineral Wells, Texas 91 68 86 63 84 / 5 20 5 5 5


Forward watches/warnings/advisories...




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