Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth Texas
357 am CDT Tuesday may 21 2013
Discussion...
isolated showers continue to pop up across the area early this
morning...with thunderstorm activity remaining north of the
region over Oklahoma in the vicinity of a slow moving front. The
weather should remain relatively quiet in the short term...but the
ingredients appear to be coming together for a severe weather
outbreak across North Texas later today.
Water vapor imagery indicates a shortwave over New Mexico moving
southeast towards northwest Texas. This feature will continue to
swing southeast into North Texas later today...providing lift for
shower and thunderstorm development later this morning and
through the afternoon. At the surface...an outflow boundary
appears to be located just south of the Red River. This boundary
will provide focus for development as lift increases ahead of the
shortwave. Hi-resolution model data shows development beginning
over the northern counties around daybreak near the remnant
boundary. Additional storm development will likely occur along the
synoptic front as it advances south towards the Red
River...essentially overtaking the mesoscale boundary later this
morning.
Showers and storms should advance slowly southeast along the slow
moving cold front. Surface heating will allow the atmosphere to
destabilize middle and late morning ahead of the front and ongoing
storms. This should lead to the development of strong to severe
storms around midday. These storms will likely be in the form of
discrete cells...most likely occurring along the Interstate 20
corridor including Dallas-Fort Worth and surrounding areas.
Several of these storms will quickly become severe with large
hail...damaging winds...and tornadoes all possible during the
afternoon. With the slow moving surface boundary in place...the
potential for long-track tornadoes will exist over central and
eastern portion of the region as indicated by Storm Prediction Center day 1 moderate
risk area.
By late afternoon...storms should form into a squall
line...shifting the main severe threat to damaging winds and hail
during the evening hours. This line of storms will push east of
the region tonight as the shortwave trough continues east and
heads for the MS valley....bringing overall quiet weather to the
region Wednesday. The synoptic scale cold front will hang up near
the I-20 corridor today before gradually lifting north of the area
Wednesday and Wednesday night.
An upper ridge will build overhead Wednesday through the end of
the week. Model data continues to hint at storm development
northwest of the region around the periphery of the ridge...with
activity propagating southeast towards the area. Will continue
with low probability of precipitation across the northwestern third of the region during
the evening and overnight hours Wednesday and Thursday...with
lingering probability of precipitation north of I-20 Friday morning. The upper ridge is
prognosticated to intensify this weekend...which would bring Summer-like
temperatures for Memorial Day.
30
&&
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Dallas-ft. Worth, Texas 82 65 87 68 89 / 60 30 10 10 10
Waco, Texas 87 67 89 68 89 / 60 30 10 10 10
Paris, Texas 79 64 85 63 85 / 60 40 10 10 10
Denton, Texas 80 62 87 65 88 / 60 30 10 20 10
McKinney, Texas 81 63 87 64 86 / 60 30 10 10 10
Dallas, Texas 83 66 88 69 90 / 60 30 10 10 10
Terrell, Texas 84 65 86 65 87 / 70 30 10 10 10
Corsicana, Texas 87 67 87 68 88 / 60 40 10 10 10
Temple, Texas 88 68 89 68 88 / 50 30 20 10 10
Mineral Wells, Texas 81 61 88 65 90 / 50 20 10 20 10
&&
Forward watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&
$$
84/30
