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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Sioux Falls South Dakota
627 am CDT Sat Oct 10 2015

Short term...(today and tonight)
issued at 417 am CDT Sat Oct 10 2015

A quiet and warm fall day is on tap for the region. Early this
morning...surface winds remain southwesterly in nature...and are
holding low temperatures well above normal. For today...only real
concern would be minor fire danger risk in the far relative humidity
values drop near 30 percent at peak heating time. Strongest winds
will be focused east of this area...and are not expected to be
collocated with other favorable fire weather criteria.

Tonight...another very warm night...with low temperatures near
record warmest values for the date. Southwest winds will again lead
to some enhanced or higher winds near the Buffalo Ridge.

Long term...(sunday through friday)
issued at 417 am CDT Sat Oct 10 2015

Mild conditions are expected to continue into Sunday as a series of
boundaries work through the region. A trough ahead of the main cold
front is expected to work through the region. Ahead of the
boundary...dew points are expected to be in the 50s...but are
expected to decrease behind this initial trough. With the drier
air...could see relative humidities approach 20 percent in central
South Dakota...and near 30 percent further to the east. As the main
cold front moves through...winds will increase even
further...potentially producing a few hours of near red flag
conditions across central South Dakota.

Behind the cold front...winds will be quite strong. Models suggest
around 40 knots of flow at 925 hpa on Monday. Have increased
winds...and will need a Wind Advisory as Monday approaches. Will
also need to keep a close eye on fire conditions will
once again approach red flag on Monday.

After an active start to the week...Tuesday into Wednesday look to
be mild and quiet with less wind. A back door cold front is expected
to work down Wednesday night creating at least cooler conditions
through Thursday. European model (ecmwf) is stronger with the front than the
GFS...potentially suggesting cooler conditions sticking around
through the weekend. With model uncertainty...have stuck close to
blended guidance in the outer periods. The dry conditions will


Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Sunday morning)
issued at 622 am CDT Sat Oct 10 2015

VFR conditions are expected over the upcoming 24 hours. Should see
occasional gusty conditions develop as we quickly mix later this
morning. Will watch for low level wind shear development again into Sunday
morning. this time forecast winds appear a touch lighter than
they are this morning.


Fsd watches/warnings/advisories...
South Dakota...Fire Weather Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening
for sdz255-256.



Short term...dux
long term...

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