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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Sioux Falls South Dakota
1102 PM CDT Wednesday Jul 1 2015

Short term...(this evening through thursday)
issued at 326 PM CDT Wednesday Jul 1 2015

Atmosphere across the region is weakly capped. Greater instability
is located across central South Dakota...and as the next short wave
drops southward across central South Dakota expect scattered showers
and thunderstorms to develop. Models are a little further west with
this feature than then were 12 hours ago...and have shifted the
focus mainly to the west of I-29. Could see an isolated severe storm
through the night...otherwise...expect storms to remain below severe

Once again could see some lingering showers and storms through
the morning hours on Thursday. As the wave drops does
the chance of precipitation and have a general downward trend in probability of precipitation
through the day. Atmosphere through the afternoon hours remains
weakly capped...but suffers from a lack of a trigger for
widespread convection.

Long term...(thursday night through wednesday)
issued at 326 PM CDT Wednesday Jul 1 2015

In the intermediate term...confidence is rather low with
precipitation chances in this pattern which exhibits weak middle level
waves and no real focus of low level winds. Both the NAM and GFS
show moisture primarily trapped in the 850-700mb layer. The wave
which is moving through on Thursday begins to exit our southeast
zones Thursday evening. Therefore small skittish probability of precipitation are warranted
for some of our southern and western zones. Further out...kept small
probability of precipitation mostly confined to our western zones in the afternoon on Friday
and Saturday where heating is somewhat maximized. Temperatures are
rather seasonal late this week...with lows in the upper 50s to lower
60s...and highs in the upper 70s to middle 80s.

In the extended...our well advertised strong short wave and
associated wind shift is still on target to move through late Sunday
and Sunday night. High end chance or likely probability of precipitation look good from the
super blend with lingering chance probability of precipitation generally along and east of
Interstate 29 Monday morning. After that...there is really nothing
to key on in the extended. 850mb temperatures suggest a warm day for
Sunday with highs well into the 80s. But the frontal boundary will
knock those temperatures back to about 75 to 80 degrees Monday
through Wednesday.


Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Thursday night)
issued at 1058 PM CDT Wednesday Jul 1 2015

Main concern will be scattered showers along and west of the James
River in the early morning hours will become more numerous and
begin shifting into the i29 corridor late tonight through
Thursday morning. Expect MVFR ceilings and visibility in showers
and thunderstorms and rain...with more localized general MVFR stratus possible in
this area Thursday morning. Conditions will improve to VFR in the
afternoon. Winds will generally be 10 knots or less.


Fsd watches/warnings/advisories...
South Dakota...none.


Short term...
long term...mj

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