Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Sioux Falls South Dakota
1111 PM CDT Monday Jul 6 2015

Short term...(this evening through tuesday)
issued at 258 PM CDT Monday Jul 6 2015

Lingering light showers have pretty much ended...a lingering drip or
two in northwest Iowa will not take long to be gone. Otherwise
lingering clouds southeast and cumulus elsewhere will decrease
fairly quickly and leave skies mostly clear for tonight and Tuesday.
Model soundings on BUFKIT are looking pretty dry for more than
minimal cumulus development Tuesday. A northerly breeze will become
fairly light tonight and remain light Tuesday as it starts to go
more easterly.

Temperatures should cool mainly into the lower 50s tonight and highs
Tuesday are expected to be in the cool lower 70s.

The resurgence of smoke from Canadian fires is a factor.
Visibilities are improving with the heating and dispersion this
afternoon and have left out mention in the grids for this evening.
However...diurnal stratification could bring some visibility
reduction late tonight and early Tuesday morning and have mentioned
the smoke for several hours during that time.



Long term...(tuesday night through monday)
issued at 258 PM CDT Monday Jul 6 2015

Seasonally cool conditions continue into the middle-week portions of
the forecast...as a series of middle-level waves move through a more
subdued westerlies aloft. However...quality moisture remains lacking
as these waves move through. The best chances for precipitation will
remain to our southwest each evening and overnight...but cannot rule
out diminishing showers moving in by late Thursday and Friday.

Middle-level heights will begin to increase by this weekend...signaling a
pattern change indicative of warmer weather by next weekend. A brief
period of southwesterly flow will move across the area Friday night
into Saturday...dragging an elevated boundary northeast through the
area overnight. Increasing isentropic lift should produce scattered
elevated convection into Saturday morning. Have bumped up probability of precipitation
slightly. Temperatures also continue to appear above normal for
next weekend into early next week. Have continued to advertise
readings near 90 or in the low 90s.

Depending on how far heights build over the weekend...precipitation
chances may continue early next week...with gefs probabilities
focusing the highest chances for measurable rain just northeast of
the County Warning Area.



&&

Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Tuesday night)
issued at 1111 PM CDT Monday Jul 6 2015

More widespread improvement in surface visibility has spread across
the region...so will carry primarily VFR conditions through the taf
period. Will hang onto period of MVFR visibility during the early
morning hours to account for possible fu/br combination.



&&

Fsd watches/warnings/advisories...
South Dakota...none.
Minnesota...none.
Iowa...none.
NE...none.
&&

$$

Short term...
long term...dux
aviation...jh

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations