Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff Arizona
315 PM MST Sat Mar 8 2014
Synopsis...isolated rain and snow showers will continue through
early this evening over eastern Arizona...with locally gusty
northeast wind and mostly clear skies elsewhere tonight. High
pressure rebuilds for Sunday...bringing warmer and dry conditions to
the area through Monday. Another weak storm system will bring
cooling and a slight chance of showers back to the area by the
middle of next week.
Discussion...scattered showers and a few thunderstorms have
developed this afternoon over central/southern Navajo and Apache
counties. A middle-level cold pool with the trough diving south along
the Arizona/nm border is creating instability in this area. Expect
showers to dissipate by middle evening as the system shifts southward.
Mostly clear skies continue elsewhere...though gusty NE winds have
developed today. For Sunday...northeast winds will persist but will
be much weaker than today. Daytime highs will be several degrees
warmer as ridging quickly builds over the state.
The next system is forecast to move into the Great Basin by
Monday...bringing an increase in southwest winds but continued mild
temperatures to northern Arizona. Forecast models indicate that the
system will split as it moves toward the region...with the stronger
portion moving into the plains states...leaving behind a weaker low
that sags slowly southward over Arizona late Tuesday into Thursday.
Expect temperatures to fall back to near normal...with a slight
chance of light showers at times during this period.
Aviation...for the 00z package...until 02z...expect scattered-broken cloud
cover 4-6 kft above ground level with isolated -shra/-shsn mainly east of a kinw-kpan
line. Isolated MVFR conditions in -shsn...otherwise VFR conditions
across northern Arizona. Winds N-e10-20g20-30kts. After 02z...showers
diminishing...skies clearing...and VFR conditions expected. Winds
diminishing to NE up to 10 kts by 12z. Aviation discussion not
updated for amendments.
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