Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff Arizona
348 PM MST Thursday Dec 18 2014
for the remainder of today...expect rain and snow shower activity to
decrease from west to east. The best chances for rain and snow
this afternoon and evening will be along the eastern Mogollon Rim
and in the White Mountains...where a trace to 3 inches of new snow
above 6000 feet is possible. Beginning Friday...expect a period of
fair weather...with temperatures warming to near to above normal
Sunday through the middle of next work week.
the shortwave trough that has brought rain and snow to portions of
Arizona today is currently draped across the eastern part of the
state. At this point...shower activity is mainly from Flagstaff
eastward and is expected to slowly diminish through the afternoon and
evening from west to east. Portions of the eastern Mogollon Rim
and White Mountains region could see an additional trace to 3
inches of new snow above 6000 feet. Patchy fog is possible for
locations that received precipitation today and experience
clearing skies overnight.
A fast moving shortwave ridge will cross northern Arizona on
Friday...followed by a weak upper level shortwave trough on
Saturday. This trough is expected to bring periods of dense middle
and upper level cloud cover...but no precipitation.
Beginning on Sunday...500 mb heights increase as high pressure builds
across northern Arizona. This will result in a period of fair
weather and near to above normal temperatures through the middle
of next work week.
for the 00z package...scattered stratus around through the evening with
isolated showers through 03z producing scattered MVFR ceilings and local IFR
conditions near showers...mainly over the eastern Mogollon
Rim...White Mountains...and the chuskas. After 03z lingering widely
scattered stratus around the mountains of northern Arizona along with patchy
fog producing widely scattered MVFR conditions through early Friday
morning...then VFR conditions after 15z. Aviation discussion not
updated for taf amendments.
For northern Arizona weather information visit