Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff Arizona
325 am MST sun Mar 16 2014
Synopsis...expect locally gusty north to northeast winds today...
especially from Flagstaff eastward along the Mogollon Rim. Wind
speeds will be much less than Saturday. Another dry cold front will
bring windy conditions to the region Monday... followed by cooler
temperatures through mid-week.
Expect much less wind from the north-northeast with warmer
conditions today...especially over the central and western sections
The next weather system and cold front is trending deeper as is
crosses through the northern and central rockies. For northern Arizona on
Monday look for dry conditions...however winds Monday afternoon are
forecast to become strong again...20-30 miles per hour with gusts from 35 to 50
miles per hour. Critical fire weather conditions may be a threat as depending
upon fuel dryness. The relative humidity and winds look to be strong enough to be
considering the possibilities of a fire weather product...we will
continue to monitor this and get better intel on the dryness of
fuels in the forests. Tuesday-Wednesday high temperatures cool off by 5-10
Friday into Saturday...a flat upper level ridge of high pressure is
forecast to bring a dry westerly flow and mild temperatures.
Late in the weekend next week another possible trough will bring a
slight cool down...increase in the southwest winds...with the
likelihood of dry conditions continuing.
Aviation....for the 12z package...VFR conditions will prevail for
the next 24 hours. Gusty north-NE winds will persist along and south of
the Mogollon Rim with gusts to 35 kts...decreasing after 16z sun.
Aviation discussion not updated for amendments.
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