Scientific Forecaster Discussion

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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Flagstaff Arizona
313 PM MST Friday Apr 18 2014

expect a continuation of mostly cloudy skies...a chance of
showers and near normal daytime high temperatures associated with
a passing storm system through Saturday. Beginning
Sunday...temperatures will warm before another passing weather
system causes a period of strong gusty winds Tuesday and


northern Arizona is under the influence of a low pressure system
currently centered near San Diego. This system has brought thick
middle and high level cloud to virtually all of northern Arizona as
well as increased low level moisture. While the cloud cover has
reduced daytime heating...delaying the onset of showers...there
should be enough dynamical lift and instability to cause
precipitation across portions of northern Arizona this afternoon and
evening. While some potential for precipitation will remain
overnight...look for an increase in showers and a slight chance for
thunderstorms with daytime heating tomorrow as the middle level cold
pool moves overhead increasing instability.

Sunday and Monday...expect fair weather and mostly sunny skies as
a brief period of high pressure settles in over the state.
However...some lingering moisture coupled with daytime heating
will cause a slight chance for showers over higher terrain Sunday
afternoon...especially in the White Mountains region. High
temperatures are forecast to range from 5 to 10 degrees above

Tuesday Onward...another low pressure system is forecast to affect
northern Arizona from Tuesday afternoon through Thursday. The
main impact from this system looks to be a round of strong
southwest winds. There is only a slight chance for precipitation
as the storm track is not conducive for drawing good low moisture
into the region. By Wednesday...temperatures are forecast to be
near normal for this time of year.


Aviation...for the 00z package...expect extensive middle and upper
level cloud cover and scattered -shra for the next 24 hours. Isolated thunderstorms and rain
possible...mainly after 18z Saturday. Primarily VFR conditions are
expected...however isolated MVFR ceilings will be possible over the
higher terrain areas...and isolated MVFR visibilities will be possible
in shra/tsra. Aviation discussion not updated for amendments.


Fire weather...a Pacific low pressure system will bring cooler
weather with scattered showers through Saturday. A few thunderstorms
will be possible...mainly Saturday afternoon. Expect light
southwesterly breezes. By Sunday...shower activity will taper off as
light northwesterly breezes and lower humidity develop.

Monday through Wednesday...dry weather is expected through the
period with a decreasing trend in afternoon minimum relative
humidity. A dry low pressure system will move across the southwest
Tuesday and Wednesday...bringing strong southwesterly winds Tuesday
and potentially Wednesday as well.


Fgz watches/warnings/advisories...none.



fire weather...djo

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