Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff Arizona
330 am MST Wednesday Mar 31 2015
Synopsis...look for dry weather to continue through next Tuesday.
Temperatures will start a slight cooling trend. Gusty southwest winds are
expected today and Thursday and possibly again Sunday.
expect dry weather across northern Arizona through next Tuesday.
Westerly flow aloft this morning has brought mostly clear skies to
northern Arizona. SW surface winds have been blowing all night as a dry surface
front moves southward through the Great Basin. This front to hang up in
southern Utah today then move through northern Arizona Thursday afternoon.
We should expect SW wind gusts in the 25-35 miles per hour range today and 35
to 45 miles per hour range Thursday. The fastest winds to be along and north of
the Mogollon Rim. Winds tonight should again be up and min temperatures for
Thursday morning were raised several degrees. Surface winds to become
west northwest with decreasing speeds late Thursday afternoon across
Coconino and Yavapai counties but remain gusty in Apache County
through sunset. Look for fair weather Friday with breezy east winds.
For Saturday through Tuesday... southwesterly flow should increase
here as a trough moves into the Pacific northwest. Breezy to windy
conditions looks likely with the fastest speeds on Sunday...winds
from the SW gusting 35 to 45 miles per hour.
Aviation...for the 12z package...VFR conditions will persist over
the next 24 hours. In response to an approaching weather disturbance
look for SW winds 10-20 kts gusting to 30 kts from 18z-02z. After
02z...winds generally SW 5-15 knots but local gusts to 30 kts possible
down wind of terrain features. Aviation discussion not updated for
Fire weather...expect increasing winds this afternoon and Thursday
as a dry weather system moves across Arizona. On Thursday stronger
winds along with low humidity will likely bring critical fire
weather conditions to portions of northeastern Arizona. A Fire
Weather Watch has been issued from the Mogollon Rim north to the
Utah border region.
Friday through Sunday...wind speeds will weaken on Friday before
another weather system brings dry and windy conditions over the
weekend. Critical fire weather conditions look likely, especially on
Fire Weather Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday
evening for azz109>114-116-117-139-140.
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