Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff Arizona
300 PM MST Wednesday Jun 19 2013
Synopsis...
expect warm and very dry weather to continue through Sunday with
breezy winds each afternoon. High pressure building into the
southwest next week may bring in enough moisture for a few high
based thunderstorms across central Arizona.
&&
Discussion...
a low pressure system moving through the Pacific northwest will drag
a dry cold front slowly through the Great Basin through Thursday.
Expect windy surface winds through 7 PM this evening before
decreasing overnight. Another round of critical fire weather
conditions is forecast on Thursday along and north of the Mogollon Rim.
A red flag warning remains in effect today through the early evening
hours and a Fire Weather Watch continues on Thursday. See product
rfwfgz for details.
Hot and dry conditions will continue into the weekend. The main
weather changes will be a slight decrease in wind speeds from Friday
Onward with wind speeds likely remaining below our critical fire
thresholds.
Monday through Wednesday...long range models continue to slowly
build a high pressure center just east of The Four Corners. This
high will be in a favorable position to produce southeast flow over
southern Arizona and bring up low level moisture levels through the
week. These elevated moisture levels will likely translate to
increasing cloud cover...periods of erratic gusty winds near virga
showers and a few high based thunderstorms are possible over the
White Mountains through Tuesday. Chances for thunderstorms will
expand to the Mogollon Rim on Wednesday.
&&
Aviation...
for the 00z package...expect VFR conditions under generally clear
skies for the next 24 hours...except in the vicinity of a wildfire
west of kprc where local visibility reductions are likely. Winds S-SW
15-25kt with gusts 30-35kt this evening...decreasing to 10kt or less
after 03z. Southwest winds increasing again Thursday after 16z to
15-20kt with gusts near 30kt...strongest wind along/north of
Mogollon Rim. Aviation discussion not updated for amendments.
&&
Fire weather...
very dry southwest flow aloft will persist for the next several
days. Critical fire weather conditions are expected across much of
the region from around Flagstaff northward on Thursday...and a red
flag warning has been issued. Southwest wind gusts near 35
miles per hour...warm temperatures...and single digit minimum relative humidity
can be expected. Haines indices of 5 and 6 are also expected.
Slightly lower windspeeds are forecast for Friday...though a brief
period of near-critical conditions are possible for east central
Arizona.
Saturday through Monday...expect breezy southwest winds each
afternoon...especially Sunday and Monday as a weak trough approaches
the southwest. Minimum humidity will drop below 15 percent each day.
Limited moisture may move into the White Mountains by Monday...with a
slight chance of high-based thunderstorms.
&&
Fgz watches/warnings/advisories...
Red flag warning until 7 PM MST this evening for
azz104>108-111>117-139-140.
Red flag warning from 11 am to 8 PM MST Thursday for
azz104>107-109-111>115-139-140.
&&
$$
Public.........Bohlin
aviation.......jj
fire weather...jj
For northern Arizona weather information visit weather.Gov/Flagstaff
