Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff Arizona
902 PM MST Monday Jun 1 2015
warm and dry conditions will continue through Wednesday. A
Pacific low will drop down the California coast on Thursday and
Friday with cooling temperatures and a chance for showers and
thunderstorms lasting through the weekend.
a few bands of passing cirrus tonight as rather benign conditions
continue. No major updates anticipated this evening.
Previous discussion /305 PM MST/...
a few showers developed today along the Arizona/nm state line including
the Springerville area. Elsewhere, breezy and much drier
conditions have developed. This trend of breezy and dry weather
will persist Tuesday through Thursday as southwesterly flow aloft
develops ahead of a West Coast trough. This trough is forecast to
form a closed low over California, then slowly meander around the
southwest US through the upcoming weekend. The more uncertain part
of the forecast from late Thursday through the weekend is moisture
availability and associated chances for showers and thunderstorms.
The GFS model continues to be the most aggressive in picking up
deeper moisture, some of it associated with remnants of a tropical
system, and directing this moisture over Arizona. The European
model, while not completely on board with this scenario, is a bit
wetter on the 12z run than previous runs. So we have bumped rain
chances up a bit Thursday night through the weekend. Stay tuned
for forecast updates as uncertainty remains high in the late
week/weekend rain chances.
for the 06z package...expect VFR conditions over the next 24
hours. Another round of SW winds with gusts between 25 to 30 kts
expected by late morning Tuesday and continuing through the day.
Aviation discussion not updated for taf amendments.
expect dry weather...gradually cooling temperatures and breezy
southwest winds across northern Arizona on Tuesday and Wednesday
as a low pressure trough deepens over the western United States.
Thursday through Saturday...a storm system is forecast to drop
into Southern California bringing near to slightly below normal
daytime temperatures and chances for showers and thunderstorms to
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