Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff Arizona
850 PM MST Monday Mar 30 2015
Synopsis...above normal temperatures will continue with a gradual
cooling trend forecast through the week. The main impact during the
next seven days will be the return of gusty springtime winds on
Wednesday...Thursday and Sunday. Dry humidity levels and strong
winds may create critical fire weather conditions on Thursday.
Breezy Spring winds will continue through the upcoming weekend.
Discussion...high-based convection developed over the higher
terrain from around Flagstaff northward this afternoon but has
mostly dissipated this evening. This activity was aided by cool middle
level temperatures associated with a weak shortwave approaching the
area. Otherwise it was another warm one around the region with a few
new records set...including Page...Seligman and the North Rim of the
Previous discussion...westerly flow aloft will bring dry and windy
conditions to northern Arizona over the next seven day forecast
period. Expect a gradual cooling trend this week with strong gusty
winds Wednesday afternoon and Thursday ahead of an approaching cold
front moving through Utah.
The latest forecast guidance shows this cold front will move into
Arizona on Thursday morning with strong gusty winds along and ahead
of the frontal boundary. There will be no precipitation with this
dry frontal passage. Breezy Spring winds will continue through the
upcoming weekend with the strongest winds forecast on Sunday.
Aviation...for the 06z package...VFR conditions are expected to
persist throughout the next twenty-four hours. A slight chance of a
light shower continues through 08z NE of a kpga-kinw-ksjn line...then a
slight chance of -tsra over the White Mountains Tuesday afternoon. Gusty SW
winds expected Tuesday afternoon. Aviation discussion not updated for
Fire weather...expect increasing wind speeds each afternoon on
Tuesday and Wednesday as a low pressure trough develops to the north
and west of Arizona. By Wednesday...portions of the Little Colorado
River valley and the Coconino Plateau may measure 20 foot winds of
20 miles per hour or a little greater. Minimum relative humidity values will drop to around 10
percent in the lower elevations by Wednesday.
Thursday through Saturday...strong and gusty west winds along with
single digit minimum afternoon relative humidity values are expected at lower
elevations Thursday afternoon as a dry cold front moves through
northern Arizona. Continued low relative humidity values are expected on Friday
and Saturday afternoons...with much lighter wind speeds.
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