Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff Arizona
858 PM MST Friday Oct 24 2014
high pressure will shift to the east and allow for cooler
temperatures and breezy conditions over the Northland this
weekend. There is a slight chance for showers late Saturday and
early Sunday as moisture briefly moves into the area from the
south. Otherwise...fair weather is expected to return on Monday
and continue through next week.
forecast in good shape with no changes this evening.
Previous discussion /240 PM MST/...
expect another clear night with calm winds before a change in the
weather on Saturday and Sunday.
This weekend...a broad trough will develop over and move through
the Great Basin. Winds will increase over northern Arizona in
response to the troughing...with southwest winds in the 15 to 25
miles per hour range and gusts from 25 to 35 miles per hour...with the fastest winds on
Sunday. Forecasts are showing some low level moisture moving northward
late Saturday and early Sunday ahead of a weak disturbance
currently around 25n 120w. This feature will weaken...and move
through Arizona within the strengthening SW flow. With this
moisture and attendant weak ascent...we expect an increase in
clouds and a few light showers...and have added a slight probability of precipitation
generally over the higher terrain late Saturday and early Sunday.
Cooler air associated with the passing trough will cause maximum
temperatures to fall to seasonal normals levels Sunday and Monday.
Tuesday through Friday. Models are consistent with indicating a
dry weather pattern...with temperatures rising above seasonal
normals once again as a strong ridge develops over the western
states late in the week.
for the 06z package...primarily VFR conditions will continue over
the next 24 hours. Prescribed burn activity may cause local areas of
reduced visible in smoke near kflg and kgcn overnight tonight. Light
winds becoming southwest 10-15 kts gusting 20-25 kts after 18z
Saturday. An isolated -shra will be possible over the high terrain
by Saturday afternoon. Aviation discussion not updated for
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