Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff Arizona
925 am MST Wednesday Aug 27 2014
a low pressure trough will continue to bring showers and
thunderstorms to eastern Arizona this morning. More scattered
storms are expected again this afternoon as the low pressure pulls
away from the area. A dry west to northwest flow will bring dry
conditions and slightly warmer high temperatures from Thursday
through early next week.
upper level low pressure is situated to our north this morning
over the Colorado/Utah border leaving northern Arizona under a much drier
west to northwest flow. Have made minor updates to the morning
forecast to account for current shower activity in eastern Arizona
and update cloud cover. The forecast challenge today will be
coverage of any shower activity. Boundary layer moisture will be
fighting a drier and more stable environment.
Regardless...coverage is expected to be scattered or less. Will
leave afternoon forecast as is and will continue to assess
moisture will be sufficient in the lower layers of the atmosphere
today...and along with instability around the upper
low...scattered showers and thunderstorms area expected to develop
this afternoon over northern Arizona. A few of the storms may
become severe with damaging hail and winds...as there is
sufficient shear and flow aloft to help some of these storms
become organized. Activity is expected to die quickly by around
sunset as dry more stable air sets in over northern Arizona behind
the departing low pressure system. A high pressure ridge will
build into the southwest states overnight tonight.
Thursday through the weekend...models continue to be consistent with
strong ridging over the southwest...with a much drier
atmosphere...bringing fair and warm weather to the Northland through
the weekend...and into early next week.
for the 18z package...lingering moisture will bring scattered
showers and thunderstorms to northern Arizona today. Away from
storms mainly VFR conditions. After 02z...clearing skies. Aviation
discussion not updated for amendments.
For northern Arizona weather information visit