Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff Arizona
315 PM MST Sat Jan 31 2015
Synopsis...scattered rain and snow showers will decrease in
coverage this evening followed by areas of fog developing overnight.
Look for dry and warmer weather from Sunday through Friday...though
fog and low clouds will also be possible through midweek.
scattered very light showers have developed this afternoon along and
south of I-40. These are moving slowly to the south...an indication
of northerly winds aloft. Showers should fade this evening as
northerly flow aloft brings drier air in at the middle and upper
levels. The broad area of precipitation ongoing across central Arizona should
not move to much further northward.
Forecasts are in good agreement with a broad but Flat Ridge of high
pressure parking over the western U.S from Sunday through at least
next Thursday. Low level moisture and a stabilizing airmass should
lead to areas of fog tonight through Sunday morning across northern
Arizona. We will need to monitor the fog situation and make coverage
adjustments on a day to day basis. Maximum temperatures to start a warming
trend overall...valley locations may see this hindered due to
stratus / fog.
Aviation...for the 00z package...expect continued MVFR/IFR
conditions with lower cloud ceilings and scattered showers. Areas of
LIFR conditions will develop overnight with low clouds and fog
persisting through Sunday morning. Aviation discussion not updated
for taf amendments.
Fgz watches/warnings/advisories... none
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