Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff Arizona
300 am MST Monday may 25 2015
Synopsis...ample moisture will combine with a weak weather system
to produce cool temperatures and a few showers today. Look for
diminishing showers this evening as the current system moves
eastward. Starting Tuesday...the weather pattern will gradually
shift to warmer and drier conditions for the remainder of the week.
Discussion...ample moisture and northwest flow will remain over
northern Arizona today. An area of showers was moving across
northwest Arizona during the morning hours and looks to bring a few
morning showers from Seligman and Flagstaff northward to the Grand
Canyon and Kaibab Plateau. Elsewhere, isolated showers will be
possible through the morning hours. For this afternoon...daytime
heating will help destabilize the atmosphere with scattered showers
and thunderstorms developing and lasting into the early evening,
primarily along and north of the Mogollon Rim. Well below normal
high temperatures will continue.
Starting Tuesday and heading into next weekend...the general trend
will to toward warmer and drier conditions. Another weak disturbance
will swing across on Wednesday and Thursday but will be much warmer
than the last several such disturbances. Looks like enough moisture
will linger for a slight chance of showers near the Arizona/Utah
border and The Four Corners region through Thursday. An isolated
thunderstorm is not out of the question. Models in fairly good
agreement in showing high pressure building over Arizona satring
Friday and for the coming weekend. At this time it looks like dry
conditions and high temperatures more typical of may are headed our
Aviation...for the 12z package...expect an area of -ra west of kgcn
to spread eastward affecting areas west of kpga-kflg through 16z.
Scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms and rain will then redevelop late morning
through the afternoon...mainly along/north of the Mogollon Rim. VFR
conditions will prevail through the period...though MVFR/brief IFR
and gusty winds will accompany the heavier showers. Most shower
activity will diminish after 03z. Aviation discussion not updated
for taf amendments.
Fire weather...isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will
develop again today. Daytime temperatures will continue to be well
below normal...with elevated humidity levels. On Tuesday...warmer
and drier conditions develop as the trough moves away from the
state. A slight chance of a high-based thunderstorm will linger
along the Arizona/Utah border.
Wednesday through Friday...much warmer and mainly dry conditions
will continue. Winds will remain on the light side...generally 15
miles per hour or less.