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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1143 PM CST Thursday Nov 26 2015

issued at 1139 PM CST Thursday Nov 26 2015

Persistant cloud band which was from Cando to Devils Lake to
Valley City earlier this evening has moved a bit east and eroding
slowly but surely. Tweeked sky cover grids to indicate this band
of clouds from Langdon to just west of Grand Forks to Valley City
the next few hours. Bemidji area has scattered out with lingering
clouds only around Wadena. Overall temperatures appear good as high
pressure overhead but in most places the temperature fall has slowed.


Short term...(this evening through sunday)
issued at 330 PM CST Thursday Nov 26 2015

Pocket of cold air over southern Canada will shift east/southeast
tonight as high pressure settles overhead. Will tend to favor the
cool side of guidance tonight.

Split flow aloft will continue across North America with northern
stream over central and northern Canada and southern stream over the
states. Water vapor loop indicated a positive tilted trough from
Hudson Bay to eastern Montana. Some drying/darkening was occurring over
eastern Montana. The trough will move over the forecast area tonight and
Friday morning and will continue to move east. Another positive tilted
trough extended from Colorado to central California and will start to move into
the central and northern plains Sun afternoon.

Upper level ridge axis off the western Canadian coast will shift
into British Columbia. The upper ridge will broaden into central Canada through 84
hours. Some disturbances will ride the ridge but will stay far
enough north in Canada to not affect the area. Otherwise little or
no precipitation through sun.

Long term...(sunday night through thursday)
issued at 330 PM CST Thursday Nov 26 2015

Global models in fair agreement through the long range period. Upper
low currently over the SW US will begin to wobble across the Central
Plains early next week. Associated surface low to track along NE/Kansas
border before lifting NE to the Great Lakes. Based on surface low
track southern then eastern forecast area will be on northern edge of snow
shield so low/middle probability of precipitation warranted. Feature shifts east by middle week
with remainder of the period quiet. Little in the way of cold air
wrapping around low so temperatures through the period will range at
or a bit above average.


Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Friday night)
issued at 1139 PM CST Thursday Nov 26 2015

Slowly shrinking band of MVFR clouds btn dvl and gfk may move east
enough to bring scattered clouds to Grand Forks Airport. Around
Bemidji some scattered MVFR clouds may remain overnight. Otherwise
skies mainly clear and with The Levels drying out Friday expect
few if any clouds. Winds lighth north-northwest turning southwest
and increase to 10 to 15 kts in eastern ND Friday midday-aftn.


Fgf watches/warnings/advisories...


short term...hoppes
long term...voelker

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