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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
940 am CDT Tuesday Jun 30 2015

issued at 940 am CDT Tuesday Jun 30 2015

Still some haze/fog being reported...but think conditions will
continue to improve. Looks like it will stay mainly cloudy along
and west of the Red River valley with more filtered sun to the
east. Smoke layer is being masked by other clouds today but it is
still there. Only update at this point will be to remove any precipitation
chances across the western forecast area until after noon.


Short term...(today through wednesday)
issued at 313 am CDT Tuesday Jun 30 2015

Question is how much smoke/haze today. Feel like there will be
quite a bit as upper flow is the same as Monday. But we also have
considerable high level cloud cover moving over the area as
moisture moves around the 500 mb high over Utah. Weak short waves
in this flow around the ridge from southern Alberta into northeast
Montana into central/western ND causing bands of showers and isolated
thunder just west of forecast area. High pressure over northwest Ontario will
keep pattern pretty stable the next 36 hours...with moisture from
the west only slowly able to move east into eastern ND today through
Wednesday. Expecting most of northwest Minnesota to be dry. GFS/NAM are a bit
more bullish with an area of showers later tonight so did push the
probability of precipitation a tad farther east than some of the very short range models
(wrfs) would say. Temperatures near average and little change from previous

Long term...(wednesday night through monday)
issued at 313 am CDT Tuesday Jun 30 2015

Short waves and a band of middle level moisture will remain over the
central ND into eastern South Dakota and southern Minnesota with best bet for showers and a
few storms in this region. Did keep lower probability of precipitation Wednesday night into
Thursday in the Red River and parts of northwest/west-central Minnesota as area is on the
fence between dry conditions over northwest Ontario and wetter conditions
to our southwest.

For Friday through Monday...models appear to indicate northwest flow
aloft becoming more zonal as a deep upper low propagates through
Canada. The strongest model signal for thunderstorms will be with
the passage of a cold front Saturday night or Sunday (ecmwf about
12 hours quicker than the gfs). Temperatures will be near normal
values ahead of the cold frontal passage...and slightly below normal values
to start the work week.


Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Wednesday morning)
issued at 659 am CDT Tuesday Jun 30 2015

Patchy fog around through 14z...only briefing impacting taf sites gfk
and far. Otherwise look for light winds today...predominately
northeast under 10 kts...along with scattered-broken high level moisture.
Smoke still present through the day however making conditions less
than ideal.


Fgf watches/warnings/advisories...


short term...Riddle

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