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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1135 PM CDT Thursday may 28 2015

issued at 1135 PM CDT Thursday may 28 2015

No changes needed from last update.


Short term...(this evening through Friday night)
issued at 245 PM CDT Thursday may 28 2015

Primary concerns will be thunderstorm potential this evening then
temperatures and frost potential Saturday morning. Models in
reasonable agreement and will use blend for forecast.

Surface low over S central mb with associated warm front from the
low across far northern Minnesota. A cold front extends from the
low through north central to SW ND. The cold front will gradually
swing through the forecast area tonight. Two areas of concern for
thunderstorms and rain development. First area is along Minnesota/Canadian border area
vicinity warm front. This area in zone of strongest shear however
weakest instability and cape with lack of heating. Feel main area
will be along approaching cold front roughly bisecting the forecast area from
NE-SW by this evening. South half of this area able to heat out
with sufficient instability and cape. This area however in zone of
lower shear and from water vapor tough to pick out a wave to
assist in vertical motion. Cannot rule out a severe storm however
with low shear may be pulsey. Front lags across the far southeast towards
morning so mildest overnight lows in this area with cooler
temperature to the northwest.

Impressive cold advection continues tomorrow. Showers and
possible thunder will be confined to the far southeast mainly during the
morning. We should see increasing solar during the day however not
expecting a great deal of temperature recovery with high
temperatures well below average. Will also be windy.

Surface high pressure builds in Friday night. The far northwest will be
under coolest air and lightest winds so will have to take a good
look at frost potential although should be short lived. Remainder
of the forecast area will be quite cool.

Long term...(saturday through thursday)
issued at 245 PM CDT Thursday may 28 2015

Sky clear...relatively light winds but cool temperatures in store for
Saturday. Maximum temperatures will be around 10-15 degree below
average most areas.

Weak return flow/warm advection Saturday night should limit any
frost potential.

Weak wave approaches the area Sunday so maintain chance probability of precipitation.
Temperatures will continue on the cool side.

Sunday night through Thursday...models are in pretty good agreement
on the overall pattern...with upper ridging building over the
northern plains for Monday and then moving off to the east as
southwesterly flow aloft sets up later in the week. Various
shortwaves moving through will bring a pretty good chance for
thunderstorms Monday night/Tuesday. Additional weak shortwaves
moving through will continue the chances into Wednesday and Thursday
although timing and placement are less certain. Will keep fairly
high blended probability of precipitation going. Temperatures will be fairly close to
seasonal averages on Monday but will warm up to above average for
later in the week.


Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Friday night)
issued at 1135 PM CDT Thursday may 28 2015

MVFR ceilings will spread into the region behind the cold front. Some
areas could even fall into the IFR range in the valley at times.
North winds will gust to near 30kt on Friday but will decrease by
afternoon. Rain will linger through most of tonight near bji and
far...with a slow moving area of convection ahead of the front.


Fgf watches/warnings/advisories...

short term...voelker
long term...Jr/voelker

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