Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
936 PM CST Tuesday Mar 3 2015

issued at 936 PM CST Tuesday Mar 3 2015

Temperatures have been a bit slower to fall than expected as scattered
clouds and mixing winds have kept temperatures still mostly above zero
except in the northeast. Think that we will still get down into
the teens below zero as cold air continues to move down out of the
north. Think that the northeast should be going down to Wind Chill
Advisory criteria shortly and the south will reach criteria later
tonight so will keep headlines that we have going.

Update issued at 637 PM CST Tuesday Mar 3 2015

Breezy conditions continue this evening but with winds slowly
dropping off have let the Wind Advisory expire. Temperatures drop off
quickly in the next few hours as the sun will keep the
Wind Chill Advisory as it is for now.


Short term...(this evening through Wednesday night)
issued at 330 PM CST Tuesday Mar 3 2015

The main challenge will be temperatures and wind chill issues tonight into
Wednesday. Models are in good overall agreement with no preference.

For the near term...we will cancel all winter weather advisories
that were in effect until 00z. The threat for significant blowing
snow has ended...although there could still be areas of patchy
blowing snow along with some isolated flurries/snow showers
through sunset.

For tonight...winds should remain in the 10-20mph range coupled with
temperatures falling below zero. This will lead to dangerous wind
chills from 25 to 40 below by late tonight. We will issue a Wind Chill
Advisory for the north starting at 00z...and the southern 1/3
starting at 06z...and run it through 18z Wednesday.

On Wednesday...cold high shifts over the region and temperatures should struggle
into the single digits above zero. There could be a few afternoon
flurries mainly in the north within cyclonic flow.

For Wednesday night...high shifts east and return flow will develop. There
will likely be another period of dangerous wind chills before warmer
air arrives.

Long term...(thursday through tuesday)
issued at 330 PM CST Tuesday Mar 3 2015

For Thu/ should be dry with a gradual warming trend. Temperatures
on Friday should warm into the low/middle 30s...with minimal snow cover
for most areas and warming middle level temperatures.

Friday night-Tuesday...a generally quiet pattern will prevail as the
northern plains remain in a northwest flow pattern that will
gradually trend more zonal later in this time frame. The GFS/Gem do
indicate some light precipitation Friday night in association with an upper
shortwave trough...with the European model (ecmwf) dry. Currently the strongest model
signal for light precipitation is during the Sat night-Sunday period with
another have included low probability of precipitation. High temperatures will be
milder...generally in the 30s or higher...depending on the location
of waves and position of the low-level baroclinic zone from


Aviation...(for the 00z tafs through 00z Wednesday evening)
issued at 637 PM CST Tuesday Mar 3 2015

A few streamers with MVFR ceilings and lowered visible due to blowing snow
have been lingering. They should dissipate in the next few hours
as we lose heating and winds start to come down. Conditions should
be VFR at all sites by middle evening. Winds will continue to
decrease and should be in the 10 to 20 knots range tonight and into
tomorrow. Some lower VFR/higher MVFR ceilings will start moving in
tomorrow as a reinforcing shortwave digs down into the northern
plains. Kept ceilings in the 3500-5000 feet range for now.


Fgf watches/warnings/advisories...
ND...Wind Chill Advisory until noon CST Wednesday for ndz028>030-038-

Wind Chill Advisory until noon CST Wednesday for ndz006>008-

Minnesota...Wind Chill Advisory until noon CST Wednesday for mnz002-003-

Wind Chill Advisory until noon CST Wednesday for mnz001-004>009-




National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations