Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
402 am CDT Friday Jul 31 2015

Short term...(today through saturday)
issued at 335 am CDT Friday Jul 31 2015

Main upper low over Hudson Bay with the upper level jet from
central Alberta into central/southern Manitoba into northwest Ontario.
Shortwaves in this flow to impact areas mainly just north and
northeast of our forecast area. One short wave will move from west-central
Manitoba into the Lake of The Woods region this afternoon and like
yesterday isolated T-storms possible with it Lake of The Woods area and
points north and east. Otherwise convective temperatures in the lower 80s
good for some cumulus today. Light winds and generally clear tonight.
Saturday is looking mainly dry with south winds and warm
temperatures ahead of cool front due to arrive Sat night. There is a
short wave due to produce some convection over eastern South Dakota into southern Minnesota.
To blend included a low pop for Grant County Minnesota. Otherwise main
area to watch is Lake of The Woods region. Kept it dry but could
see risk of a T-storm middle to late afternoon as that area remains closer
to jet stream energy.

Long term...(saturday night through thursday)
issued at 335 am CDT Friday Jul 31 2015

Cool front to drop south through the area Saturday night into
Sunday morning. Upper level shortwave accompanying it may produce
an isolated T-storm or two. A tad cooler Sunday...especially northern areas.
High pressure moves into area Sun night into Monday.

For Monday through Thursday...long wave ridge/trough over western
North America/Hudson Bay-Great Lakes respectively shift east a bit
through the period. Also long wave amplitude decreases through the
period. Long wave ridge approaches the northern plains by the end of
the period.

Short wave timing on the European model (ecmwf) was a little faster than the GFS on
Wednesday otherwise GFS was faster on other days. The European model (ecmwf) trend was to
slow down and then speed up while the GFS was trending slower over
the last couple model runs. Will blend the the two models.

Little change to high temperatures for Monday through Wednesday. High temperatures
decreased two to three degrees for Thursday compared to yesterdays
forecast package.



&&

Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Friday night)
issued at 1132 PM CDT Thursday Jul 30 2015

Spotty middle cloud over bji otherwise clear across the region.
Similar conditions tomorrow with mainly sky clear...increasing northwest winds
and isolated rain showers/thunderstorms and rain over the far NE.



&&

Fgf watches/warnings/advisories...
ND...none.
Minnesota...none.
&&

$$

Short term...Riddle
long term...jk/Riddle
aviation...voelker

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations