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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1259 PM CST Thursday Nov 26 2015

issued at 1258 PM CST Thursday Nov 26 2015

Will add flurries for parts of the Red River valley where clouds
are. Otherwise little changes to this update.

Update issued at 958 am CST Thursday Nov 26 2015

Radar showed light returns over the southern half of the Red River
valley but were now shifting east out of the area. Some middle level
frontogenesis had occurred and will shift east today. Precipitable
water varies from half an inch in the southeast zones to the about
0.15 inches in the northwest zones. Precipitable water decreases
today with drier air moving into the area on north/northwest winds.
However flurries were still being reported in eastern ND. Will add
flurries until early afternoon in the north. Tweaked temperatures down a
bit for most places for today.

Update issued at 635 am CST Thursday Nov 26 2015

Steady cold advection will continue T highs will not be a
whole lot higher than morning readings...with some teens to the
north and low to middle 20s south this afternoon. Scattered flurries
will continue on and off at least this morning.


Short term...(today through friday)
issued at 332 am CST Thursday Nov 26 2015

Quiet weather expected through the short term...with temperatures/cloud
trends being the primary focus.

Despite some breaks in the clouds during the evening...low clouds
have remained over most of the area early this morning. Under the
shallow low cloud deck...several sites have reported some very
light will continue flurry mention into the first half
of the day. Radar shows a more pronounced area of returns over the
S Red River into northwest Minnesota likely associated with some middle-level
frontogenesis...but surface reports to this Point of any precipitation have
been limited.

Low-level cold advection will continue today...with temperature
rises expected to be limited. Drier air will gradually work into
the area with high pressure approaching...but how quickly clouds
clear will need to be monitored. With a chilly air mass in place
tonight along with the surface ridge moving into the area...a cold
night is expected. Single digits will likely be common over much
of the region...dependent on any lingering clouds.

High pressure will continue to impact the weather on Friday with
dry weather continuing and warm advection helping boost temperatures a
bit higher into the 20s.

Long term...(friday night through wednesday)
issued at 332 am CST Thursday Nov 26 2015

Fair weather will continue Friday night through Saturday night
over the northern plains. With the surface high moving farther
south...westerly winds on the northern periphery along with
moderating thermal fields should allow temperatures to climb back into
the 30s for Saturday.

Sunday-Wednesday...split flow blocky type pattern leads to a low
confidence forecast. There will be an upper low near the region to
begin the work week...with the possibility for snow. 00z models
have trended south with this feature...but given the blocky
pattern the best thing to say right now is that some type of snow
is possible...but not certain. Temperatures will be near or
slightly above normal values.


Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Friday afternoon)
issued at 1258 PM CST Thursday Nov 26 2015

Short range models too quick in scattering out MVFR ceilings across the
region however satellite imagery is showing clearing spreading from
N-S. Will generally trend towards VFR conditions most areas by middle
afternoon. Exception may be bji where area of MVFR ceilings spreading
west from the Minnesota arrowhead and will hold MVFR ceilings in longest there.
After clouds do dissipated guidance keeps VFR conditions in for the
remainder of the period and will follow.


Fgf watches/warnings/advisories...


short term...makowski

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