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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
335 PM CST Wednesday Dec 17 2014

Short term...(this evening through Thursday night)
issued at 327 PM CST Wednesday Dec 17 2014

Challenge for the next day or two will be cloud trends and their
impacts on temperatures. Surface high pressure currently over the northern
plains will gradually shift to the east southeast over the next 36
hours. Will keep the inherited dry forecast going through Friday.

Current clear sky will make for a quick drop off in temperatures tonight
with ideal raditonal cooling set up. The falling temperatures will
be tempered overnight from west to east as mixing increases with
developing southerly winds on the backside of the high pressure.
These south winds will continue through Friday. Model relative humidity fields
indicate the western third of County warning forecast area will have overcast skies by 12z
which will move across the forecast area during the day Thursday.

Long term...(friday through wednesday)
issued at 327 PM CST Wednesday Dec 17 2014

Friday and Saturday will see weak 500mb trough track along the
international border. Will keep slight -sn chances across the
northern valley and northwest Minnesota as south winds bring in some moisture as
precipitable waters reach three to four tenths. However lift is unimpressive
within the column. Will continue to expected above normal temperatures as
column warms with mean southerly flow escorting in dewpoints into the
middle 20s. May see the low level clouds reinforced given the cold
surface and moist low layer.

For Sunday into middle next week a 500 mb trough will be carved out
over the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley regions with a surface low over
Michigan. This will lead to a broad area of moisture west of the
low over our area along with light snow chances. Any significant
moisture looks to stay to our east...but overall looks
cloudy...windy with some light snow for early next week. Overall
model guidance in good agreement with the above scenario.


Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Thursday afternoon)
issued at 1237 PM CST Wednesday Dec 17 2014

High pressure over the Red River valley will slowly drift east
tonight with winds turning light southerly in the Red River/eastern ND after
00z while areas east of the valley GOES light and variable tonight.
Skies generally clear tonight. There is one patch of middle cloud
tvf-fse area moving west and it may make it to gfk at middle afternoon for a
few hours but also may just dissipate. The MVFR ceilings in western ND will
stay out in that area but could move east some as southerly winds
get more pronounced Thursday. For now will keep lower ceilings west of
dvl through 18z Thursday.


Fgf watches/warnings/advisories...


Short term...jk
long term...jk/Riddle

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