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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1249 PM CST Thursday Nov 27 2014

issued at 1248 PM CST Thursday Nov 27 2014

Snow has started over the western parts of ND...although more is
showing up on radar than reaching the ground at this point.
Still...with kisn showing visible down to 1sm in snow think we should
get a decent band moving in by this evening. Made some adjustments
to probability of precipitation and snow amounts for models trending a bit further
south...although will wait for European model (ecmwf) and new mesoscale model runs before
final adjustments and changes to headlines. Also bumped up highs a
bit in the central County Warning Area and down a bit in the east based on current
temperature trends.

Update issued at 958 am CST Thursday Nov 27 2014

Made a few minor tweaks to the timing of clouds and snow moving in
later in the day. Think that it should be fairly quiet until after
00z...with cold temperatures and slowly increasing clouds.

Update issued at 630 am CST Thursday Nov 27 2014

No changes needed this morning.


Short term...(today through friday)
issued at 330 am CST Thursday Nov 27 2014

The main challenge will be snow tonight then continuation of
active weather through the Holiday weekend. Models are in decent
agreement...and prefer the NAM that has been the most consistent
the past few nights.

For will start out very cold with temperatures below zero. We
could get into Wind Chill Advisory criteria for a few hours this
morning...but with winds under 10 miles per hour won't issue headline at this time.
Clouds will increase from west to east late in the day. Expect a
chance for some light snow late in the afternoon in the far
west...but most of the day will be dry and very cold with high in
the single digits.

For tonight and Friday...the left exit region of an upper jet will
coincide with strong warm air advection in the 850-700mb layer and fgen. This
will lead to an organized band of snow that should focus along the
Highway 2 corridor overnight. Expect a band of 2-4 inches of snow
from dvl- gfk into bji area...and there could be a localized
report of 5. This coupled with southeast winds gusting to near
25mph overnight...could produce brief periods of blowing/drifting
snow if winds increase a bit more. We will issue a Winter Weather
Advisory starting 00z in the Devils Lake basin...then at 03z from
gfk-bji corridor and run it until 18z Friday to capture this first
wave of precipitation. Temperatures will warm enough in the far south for some
mixed precipitation later tonight into the accumulating snow
should end Friday morning and linger a bit into Friday afternoon in
the east.

Long term...(friday night through wednesday)
issued at 330 am CST Thursday Nov 27 2014

For Friday night...warmer air aloft will move north and there could
be mixed precipitation in the norther 2/3 of the region. Expect most of
the measurable quantitative precipitation forecast to be along the international border and in
Canada...near the main baroclinic zone. Temperatures should warm on Sat
and could reach near freezing...perhaps into the middle 30s in the
south if there is any insolation at all. Soundings support the
threat for freezing drizzle as something to monitor.

On Sat...a strong cold front will surge south through the region
by Sat evening. There could be a period of some blowing snow given
the classic Arctic type soundings and some moisture
more potential travel impacts possible.

Sunday through Wednesday...upper level trough digs in over the northern
plains. A 1040mb surface high shifts over the Dakotas...with northerly
winds and much cooler temperatures associated with lowering
thickness values. However...the cooler temperatures are short lived
as the upper pattern changes again. The upper trough rotates east across
the Great Lakes allowing the upper ridge to rebound...and return
flow behind the surface ridge will bring warmer temperatures to the
region. Another wave crosses the area near the end of the
period...bringing a slight chance for precipitation and another quick shot of
cooler temperatures.


Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Friday afternoon)
issued at 1248 PM CST Thursday Nov 27 2014

VFR conds will continue through 00z this evening. A low pressure
system will move across the northern tier and bring MVFR to IFR ceilings
across North Dakota and northern Minnesota. Ceilings should begin to
decline in dvl around 00z...the Red River valley around 03z...and
into sites in northwest Minnesota (bji/tvf) by midnight. Light to moderate
snow will keep visibilities and ceilings in the MVFR range through 12z to 15z
Friday morning.


Fgf watches/warnings/advisories...
ND...Winter Weather Advisory from 9 PM this evening to noon CST
Friday for ndz008-016-027-030.

Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to noon CST
Friday for ndz006-007-014-015-026-054.

Minnesota...Winter Weather Advisory from 9 PM this evening to noon CST
Friday for mnz001-002-004-007-008-013>017-022>024-027-028-



long term...Hopkins/dk

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