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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
657 PM CDT Tuesday Oct 6 2015

issued at 654 PM CDT Tuesday Oct 6 2015

No changes needed.


Short term...(this evening through Wednesday night)
issued at 301 PM CDT Tuesday Oct 6 2015

Issue tonight are temperatures and headlines. After much discussion
will go ahead and issue a freeze warning for 05z-13z for the far
eastern forecast area where lows below 32f are expected. Will also
issue a frost advisory for the rest of northwest/west-central Minnesota into the Red
River valley and NE ND with lows of 32-36. Benson/eddy counties
look to warm up some toward morning as clouds increase and did not
include them.

High pressure will be over the Red River by midnight and over eastern forecast
area at 12z Wednesday. Thus longest stretch of light winds and clear sky
over northwest Minnesota. Airmass coming in not particularly drier than
currently but upstream lows in Saskatchewan with high was in the
middle to upper 20s so at least some upper 20s likely in colder
spots. A light wind will develop at 12z in the Red River and clouds will
increase in the far western forecast area later tonight producing a tad
warmer conditions.

For Wednesday a fast moving short wave over southern b.C. Will
move east-southeast into North Dakota by late Wednesday afternoon and into
northern Minnesota Wednesday night. Moisture with system is sparse...but later
tonight into Wednesday morning an 850 mb jet in the 35 knots range
will develop and help bring up enough moisture especially at the middle
levels to generate showers in central ND near 12z Wednesday and then as
system moves east-southeast and precipitable waters increase to over 1 inch into
the Red River and northwest Minnesota expect to see coverage increase. A narrow axis
of negative showwalters just south of the surface low enters the Red River
Wednesday early evening and then moves east. Thus will maintain idea of
isolated thunderstorms. Rain amounts look to be 0.25 to 0.75 inch
over the area. Less west and more east. Precipitation to end from the
west Wednesday night.

Long term...(thursday through tuesday)
issued at 301 PM CDT Tuesday Oct 6 2015

Thursday to see considerable cloud cover in cold advection behind
the surface low. Surface highs for Thursday may be on the warm side...and
something that may need adjusting especially if clouds may be a bit more
widespread than models indicate. Breezy northwest winds too.
Clearing Thursday night and then sunshine on Friday with high overhead.

For Friday night through Tuesday...will start out the period with a
building 500mb ridge and dry conditions. Very warm 850mb temperatures move
in for Sat/sun with potential highs Sunday around 80f across the
south. Highs Sat/sun may depend somewhat on the timing of the wind
switch to the SW or west. It this happens during peak heating it
could support an even higher boost in some areas. Another wave and
cold front move through Sun night bringing temperatures back toward normal
for Mon/Tue. Could also be a little precipitation associated with this
feature Sun night with best chances along the Canadian border.


Aviation...(for the 00z tafs through 00z Wednesday evening)
issued at 654 PM CDT Tuesday Oct 6 2015

VFR conditions expected through the forecast period. Thickening
clouds with developing rain chances at the end of this forecast


Fgf watches/warnings/advisories...
ND...frost advisory from midnight tonight to 8 am CDT Wednesday for

Minnesota...frost advisory from midnight tonight to 8 am CDT Wednesday for

Freeze warning from midnight tonight to 8 am CDT Wednesday for



short term...Riddle
long term...godon/Riddle

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