Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
311 PM CDT Sat Sep 20 2014

Short term...(this evening through Sunday night)
issued at 311 PM CDT Sat Sep 20 2014

Main challenges will be any severe weather that lingers into the
late afternoon and also any showers that linger into tonight. As of
middle afternoon the surface boundary had shifted to a krox to kfse to kbwp
line. All the convection was along and just behind this boundary.
Storm Prediction Center has portions of the forecast area ahead of the boundary in a Severe Thunderstorm
Watch until 8 PM...but these storms should clear this forecast area by 4 to 5
PM as they are moving eastward at a good clip. Behind the boundary
over the kdvl region clouds were thinning but northwest winds were
breezy. Water vapor imagery shows a couple areas of compact over central/southeast ND and another one up over the
Manitoba lakes region. Models show the first wave pushing into
central Minnesota by early evening as the Winnipeg lakes wave drops into
northwest Minnesota. This shear axis holds in place overnight generally
providing enough lift for some showers to hang around mainly across
northwest Minnesota. Would also expect more cloud cover east of the valley
with less to the west. The windy conditions over the kdvl region
will probably push toward the Red River valley this evening and then
decrease overnight. Some model solutions keep some showers around
over northwest Minnesota on Sunday morning...but will maintain a dry
forecast to match other adjacent offices. Wind speeds should drop
off Sunday night with a relatively cool night expected.

Long term...(monday through saturday)
issued at 311 PM CDT Sat Sep 20 2014

Surface high pressure in control for Monday into Monday night with the next
chance of rain coming on Tuesday. With the Tuesday system better chances
should be across the southern Red River valley with dry conditions

For Wednesday through Sat...will start out with the upper low over the forecast area
on Wednesday mainly shifting to the east by Thursday. This will set up a
trough over the West Coast and ridge over the central part of the
country. Therefore after some lingering showers/thunderstorms Wednesday it looks
seasonal for temperatures with minimal chances for precipitation Thursday into Sat.


Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Sunday afternoon)
issued at 1242 PM CDT Sat Sep 20 2014

Showers and thunderstorms will move rapidly through the
region...exiting most taf sites by late afternoon. Mostly clear sky
anticipated this evening into much of the overnight hours. Gusty
northwest winds will occur behind the precipitation...becoming
weaker near sunset.


Fgf watches/warnings/advisories...


Short term...godon
long term...godon/tg

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations