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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
624 PM CST Thursday Feb 11 2016

issued at 624 PM CST Thursday Feb 11 2016

Clearing has pushed into southern Manitoba and will continue into
areas along and north of Highway 2 through middle evening. There are
higher level clouds moving into the western forecast area as well...but these
should be fairly thin. Winds are currently in the 5 to 10 miles per hour
range...but will pick up into the 10 to 20 miles per hour range by late night
into Friday morning. So far the forecast has these elements covered
well so no changes needed.


Short term...(this evening through Friday night)
issued at 253 PM CST Thursday Feb 11 2016

Main issue are temperatures and wind chills. Stratocu deck...with plenty
of thin spots... over northern half of the County Warning Area...while a tad thicker
clouds in the southern areas. Short wave causing the light snow in the
western and central Dakotas moving south-southeast. As the short
wave continues to move south-southeast colder air will sink
southward from central Manitoba into NE ND/northwest Minnesota overnight and
then continue to drop south during Friday. Winds expected to
increase a bit overnight into Friday with the cold airmass. With
that cold air mass will come clearing which should reach far northern
forecast area 03z and then central Red River 06z or so. Enough wind in the
10-15 knots range along with low temperatures for wind chills to reach -25
to -30f in NE ND/northwest Minnesota overnight into Friday midday. Coordinate with
weather forecast office dlh/bis and a Wind Chill Advisory for NE ND/northwest Minnesota will be
issued valid 06z-18z Friday. Made it one start time to keep it exact timing depends on exact temperature curve and wind.

Temperature recovery Friday will be minimal though snow cover in many
areas not thick and with sun some warming will occur. High
pressure over the Red River early Friday evening will bring a quick
drop in temperatures...and the high will reside over the eastern forecast
area all night with light winds Friday night. Thus coldest low temperatures
in the -20s east of the Red River.

Long term...(saturday through thursday)
issued at 253 PM CST Thursday Feb 11 2016

Decent short wave trough will enter the Pacific northwest Friday and move
into southern Saskatchewan/western ND Saturday daytime. Strong 850 mb warm
advectionand 850 Theta-E advection will occur ahead of this wave
and will spread east into eastern ND and the Red River Sat late day/evening
and into northwest/west-central Minnesota Sat night exiting Sunday. Enough forcing
mostly in the 850 mb layer for a band of snow to accompany this
warm advection. Wpc indicates potential for 2-3 inches in most
areas and that is reasonable. Highest quantitative precipitation forecast and a bit better
synoptic lift is more so in eastern South Dakota where highest bet of 4 inches
will occur. Will have high probability of precipitation Sat night most areas and in the
east Sunday morning.

The long term period (sun night through thursday) may see a couple
of rounds of snow. Light snow is possible in the far east Sun
night as saturday's system pulls out of the region. Northwest flow aloft
then continues through the long term period. Models are differing
in an early week shot of precipitation...with GFS bringing precipitation to
region Monday night followed by a surface high dropping over the region
Tuesday night. The European model (ecmwf)...however...does not have much in way of quantitative precipitation forecast
Monday night and the surface high Tuesday night is much further
northeast...with a 140 knots jet maxima moving through the Dakotas.
This will a chance of snow to central ND and western zones in our
County Warning Area. As usual with this upper level pattern...low confidence low
this far out for timing and trajectory of upper features...but at
least eastern ND should see some snow in the Monday night to Tuesday
night timeframe .


Aviation...(for the 00z tafs through 00z Friday evening)
issued at 624 PM CST Thursday Feb 11 2016

Tried to time the north to south clearing of the bkn050 level
clouds as best as possible. However will just have to keep an eye
on trends and adjust again as needed. Winds should remain
northerly and pick up a little more after 09z or so.


Fgf watches/warnings/advisories...
ND...Wind Chill Advisory from midnight tonight to noon CST Friday for

Minnesota...Wind Chill Advisory from midnight tonight to noon CST Friday for



short term...Riddle
long term...Riddle/speicher

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