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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
340 am CST Thursday Dec 25 2014

Short term...(today through friday)
issued at 330 am CST Thursday Dec 25 2014

Forecast challenges concern snow chances across the far south and
temperatures. NAM/Gem coming around to more consistent...farther
south solution of the GFS/European model (ecmwf) and will follow later for forecast.

Models now in good agreement in organizing snow band in zone of
increasing frontogenetic forcing across north half of South Dakota into
adjacent portions of Minnesota. The ND/South Dakota border area remains on northern
fringe however latest model runs even farther south. With good
model agreement trimmed back on probability of precipitation and snow amounts along the
border. Elsewhere across the region in the wake of the passing
cold front steady cold advection today. Combined with moist low
levels flurries a good bet. Model soundings showing some potential
for fzdz however until we receive reports will leave out of
forecast. With stratus spreading back into the forecast area any temperature
recovery will be minimal if at all.

Cold advection continues overnight and temperatures will hinge on
how much of the forecast area can lose clouds. Any decreasing cloud potential
looks to be across the western forecast area and will have coldest minimums there.

High pressure continues to build in Friday. With drying column
will have a better chance of seeing solar across the region. Cold
advection levels off and little if any snow on the ground so
forecasting maximum temperatures may be a challenge at this point
held pretty close to persistence.

Long term...(friday night through wednesday)
issued at 330 am CST Thursday Dec 25 2014

Secondary cold front Friday night will allow colder air to seep
southward into the forecast area for continued downward temperature trend.
Next chance for snow still looks Sat night as weak impulse drops
southeast along baroclinic zone.

Sunday-Wednesday...both the 00z GFS/European model (ecmwf) indicate a surface boundary
dropping south into Sunday ahead of a strong 1050mb+ Arctic surface high
which will build into the High Plains for early week. There
could be some light snow/flurries on Sunday with the
boundary...followed by dry and cold conditions for Mon/Tue. Temperatures
may stay near or below zero during the day in some areas
Mon/Tue...although the lack of deep snowcover in many areas may
impact temperatures. The global models maintain northwest flow aloft during
the middle-week time...although differ on the timing of embedded
shortwave troughs...affecting the position of the low-level
baroclinic zone/surface temperatures and any light snow chances.
Regardless...no significant precipitation is expected through the period.

&&

Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Thursday night)
issued at 1151 PM CST Wednesday Dec 24 2014

Kdvl remains VFR with the dry air reducing stratus...but giving
the stratus on satellite already moving down into Towner County to
the north it will be very short lived. Judging by Sat trends think
that kgfk and kfar could go VFR for a short period in the next few
hours but then go back down to MVFR and IFR as more stratus moves
in from the north. Not so sure kbji and ktvf will see much
clearing...although kbji has 5000 feet ceilings at the current time.
Think that towards morning there will be more IFR ceilings...and any
snow will stay south of the taf sites. There should be some
improvement to MVFR towards afternoon. Winds will shift to the
northwest at around 8 to 12 kts.



&&

Fgf watches/warnings/advisories...
ND...none.
Minnesota...none.
&&

$$

Short term...voelker
long term...makowski/voelker
aviation...Jr

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