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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
646 am CST Tuesday Jan 27 2015

issued at 639 am CST Tuesday Jan 27 2015

Beefed up fog mention across the valley and adjacent northwest Minnesota this
morning as visibility between 1/2 and 1 mile common. Visibility
has improved slightly vs getting worse so held off on advisory at
this time. Also delayed any decrease in cloud cover from valley
east until this afternoon. No other changes.


Short term...(today through wednesday)
issued at 315 am CST Tuesday Jan 27 2015

Forecast challenge concerns temperatures and midweek snow chances.
Models in reasonable agreement and will use model blend.

Main challenge today will be temperatures which will hinge on what
current cloud cover does during the day. Current stratus cloud
shield extends from valley eastward. Models currently not handling
cloud trends well at all and have different solutions on what clouds
will do. High resolution (hrrr) way too far west with lower ceilings
while most other models too quick in pushing low level moist
eastward. GFS and to a degree the NAM want to clear out the valley
and develop lower ceilings west of the valley this afternoon. As low
level flow strengthens from the S-SW during the afternoon along
with increasing warm advection western edge should erode but may
be too late for solar to aid in warming. With uncertainty did not
differ too much on maximum temperatures.

Region remains in warm sector overnight for another mild night.

Colder air begins to sag into the forecast area Wednesday. During the day
models slower in bringing precipitation into the forecast area and keep most
appreciable quantitative precipitation forecast north of the border. With models trending for
lighter amounts of precipitation and delay in bringing moisture south of
inl border delayed/trimmed probability of precipitation during the am and held with chance
probability of precipitation during the day as European model (ecmwf) and NAM nearly dry.

Long term...(wednesday night through monday)
issued at 315 am CST Tuesday Jan 27 2015

More favorable upper support moves into the region later Wednesday
so maintained higher probability of precipitation and decreased probability of precipitation from west to east
after midnight as wave pushes east.

Temperatures trend colder to finish off the work week but still on the
warm side of seasonal averages.

Upper level pattern continues with northwest flow aloft...before an upper
level trough sags over the area by the weekend. Surface high pressure over
the region will shift southeast on Friday ahead of a developing clipper
system. This system will bring another chance for light
precipitation...and usher in cooler temperatures for the area
through the rest of the period. major systems
expected and the overall weather pattern will remain quiet.


Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Wednesday morning)
issued at 639 am CST Tuesday Jan 27 2015

IFR/LIFR widespread from the valley east and should persist at
least for the morning. Some improvement expected this afternoon
however confidence not all that high.


Fgf watches/warnings/advisories...


short term...voelker
long term...Hopkins/voelker

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