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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1252 PM CDT Sat Oct 10 2015

issued at 1252 PM CDT Sat Oct 10 2015

While there is still a fair bit of mottled cloudiness across
the northern two thirds of the forecast area at midday... warming continues
to match up with forecast warming curve. Will expect skies to continue
drying this afternoon in response to building 500 mb ridge and
accompanying subsident airmass warming expected throughout the
day. Thus no significant updates needed this early afternoon.


Short term...(today through sunday)
issued at 256 am CDT Sat Oct 10 2015

500 mb pattern early this morning shows strong storm system moving
into Southeast Alaska and an upper ridge from central California
northeast into Montana. Strong upper level jet in between the two
over the Pacific northwest then east over Alberta into Saskatchewan.
Considerable high level moisture in this pattern over Alberta into
Saskatchewan and then moving southeast and thinning over the
Dakotas and Minnesota. Upper ridge will build east today as a
piece of energy from the storm system moving into southeastern
Alaska moves into central b.C. And then central Alberta later
today into early Sunday. Warm air at the surface-700 mb will move
into the area as well. Initial southerly winds this morning will
turn a bit more southwesterly this afternoon in eastern ND as a warm front
moves through. Favorable wind direction and warming would support
temperatures on the high end of guidance in eastern ND into the Red River...unless
the cirrus is thicker than expected. European model (ecmwf)/GFS all do have
lessening 300-500 mb layer moisture through the day as the ridge
builds in. High temperatures today just shy of records at gfk/far...with
mostly lower 80s in the Red River and eastern ND with 70s east.

Mild tonight...then how warm on Sunday is the issue. 00z models
show main 925 mb warm ridge moving into the northern valley/dvl 18z and
then central/southern Red River 21z period then moving east after that. Winds
will turn southwest to west and favorable mixing of warm air to
the surface should allow temperatures to warm considerably with middle to upper
80s central/southern Red River with sharp cooling entering northwest forecast area middle to
late afternoon. Most short range surface temperature guidance would suggest
warmest Lisbon-Fargo-Ada region with upper 80s very possible.
Record highs on Sunday for Grand Forks and Fargo a tad lower than
today (81 National Weather Service office/82 gfk/85 fargo) so that breaking a record on
Sunday would seem doable.

Long term...(sunday night through friday)
issued at 256 am CDT Sat Oct 10 2015

Cold front to plow east sun evening...with sharply cooler air moving
in. Deepening 500 mb upper low and surface low over northwest Ontario will
increase the pressure gradient over eastern ND/northwest Minnesota Sun night into
Monday morning. 925-850 mb winds in the 50 knots range should in a
pretty well mixed layer up to about 850 mb spells very windy
conditions even Sun night into Monday morning even though timing
isnt the best. Later shifts may need to look at high wind
watch....certainly Wind Advisory at the very least Sun night into

There will be some wraparound showers over NE ND into northwest Minnesota Sun
night into Monday morning. Previous forecast probability of precipitation looked good.

Tuesday-Friday...a mainly dry northwest flow pattern will prevail
through the period...although a few showers could not be ruled out
with any embedded shortwave troughs impacting the area. Temperatures will
gradually trend downward through the week...although remaining
seasonable. The main model differences at this point revolve around
the amplitude of the upper flow...which could impact temperatures...and
timing of any upper waves through the region.


Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Sunday afternoon)
issued at 1252 PM CDT Sat Oct 10 2015

Aviation...VFR conditions through the period. Anticipate high
clouds this afternoon and possibly tonight. Breezy west-southwest
winds during the afternoon hours will subside to below 12 knots


Fgf watches/warnings/advisories...


short term...Riddle
long term...makowski/Riddle

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