Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1124 PM CDT Friday Mar 27 2015

Update...
issued at 1124 PM CDT Friday Mar 27 2015

No more reports of fzdz but will keep fog mentioned across the
western forecast area through the rest of the night. Otherwise rest of forecast
still on track.

&&

Short term...(this evening through Saturday night)
issued at 315 PM CDT Friday Mar 27 2015

Forecast concerns temperatures...wind and precipitation chances. Models
overall in pretty good agreement and will use blend.

Challenge this evening will be watching shrinking band of light
snow and if it will make it across the border into Minnesota. Band
entering western valley with snow ending across the northwest forecast area. So far
accumulations look light from regional webcams...an inch or less.
High resolution models continue to diminish snow band through the
early evening and confine any residual -sn to the valley region.
Adjusted probability of precipitation with this thinking and next shift can adjust as
necessary. Modest warm advection continues overnight and with
clouds continuing good part of the night temperatures will not be
nearly as cold.

Surface pressure gradient tightens significantly tomorrow for
windy conditions. Currently looks marginal for Wind Advisory
criteria but later shifts will need to make determination. Warm
advection continues so with mixing temperatures should be able to
recover above average.

Quick moving cool front to sweep through the forecast area Saturday night.
Strong SW winds will switch to the northwest over the far northwest late evening
covering most of the forecast area by morning. All operational models fairly
robust with precipitation potential with amounts ranging from .10 to .5
inches. Expect mainly rain however could be a mix over northwest Minnesota
towards morning. Minimum temperatures should remain above freezing
overnight.

Long term...(sunday through friday)
issued at 315 PM CDT Friday Mar 27 2015

Strong northwest winds Sunday and looking a bit more favorable for
reaching advisory criteria so will need to watch this. Even with
initial shot of cold advection decrease in cloud cover and no snow
cover should allow temperatures to recover well above average.

Winds will diminish Sunday evening allowing temperatures to dip
close to freezing.

Another weak boundary may bring some light showers to the region
Monday although models not in very good agreement with
placement. Temperatures will remain mild.

Tuesday to Friday...good agreement at the beginning of the period
with model solutions as upper level ridge propagates from the
intermountain west into the northern plains Tuesday into Wednesday.
With the ridging 850mb temperatures climb into the low teens by Wednesday PM
combined with S to SW surface winds maximum temperatures will be in the 50s and
60s. Thereafter a bit more spread develops as the 12z GFS and Gem
maintains a more progressive open 500mb wave versus the 12z ec which
features a closed 500mb circulation and pieces out a couple vorticity
maxes Thursday and Friday. Thus high confidence of above normal
temperatures on Tuesday and Wednesday with lower confidence in temperatures Thursday
and Friday. As for probability of precipitation and ptype...will maintain a low chance of
precipitation from Wednesday PM Onward with light rain potential during the day
changing over to light snow at night.

&&

Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Saturday night)
issued at 1124 PM CDT Friday Mar 27 2015

Kept mention of fog and low clouds at kdvl while other taf sites
remain VFR. Think as winds increase Sat morning it will help mix
out any remaining fog and low clouds. Very gusty south winds by
middle day Sat which will last into Sat evening. Front moves into
kdvl region by late evening which will bring a chance of rain
showers with it.

&&

Fgf watches/warnings/advisories...
ND...none.
Minnesota...none.
&&

$$

Update...godon
short term...voelker
long term...jk/voelker
aviation...godon

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations