Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1136 PM CDT sun Sep 21 2014

issued at 1135 PM CDT sun Sep 21 2014

No changes planned for this update.


Short term...(this evening through Monday night)
issued at 308 PM CDT sun Sep 21 2014

Temperatures will be the main challenge. Models are in good
agreement. Surface high pressure will propagate across the region
as upper level ridging builds.

Clouds will gradually dissipate from west to east this evening.
Satellite imagery indicates the clouds east of the valley are not
as cellular...and may not dissipate as quickly. Light winds and
clear sky will lead to good radiational cooling conditions...and
expect minimum temperatures in the 40s.

Return flow commences by Monday afternoon. Maximum temperatures will make it
into the 70s.

Long term...(tuesday through sunday)
issued at 308 PM CDT sun Sep 21 2014

Tuesday-Wednesday...the upper circulation currently across the
southwest Continental U.S. Will propagate through the region. The European model (ecmwf) and
GFS have come into better agreement regarding where this feature
will track. This forecasted track would bring showers into the
southern and eastern forecast area (and adjusted probability of precipitation accordingly). Limited
probability of precipitation to a maximum of 30 percent since this feature will basically
be propagating into an upper ridge/dry airmass.

Wednesday night-Sunday...the Wednesday night through Sunday period will
mainly be dominated by a ridge over the central United States.
This will lead to above normal temperatures and breezy afternoon south
winds for Thursday through Sat. Some models differences come into play
by Sunday but the general idea is for the ridge to shift a little
further east bringing some chances for rain to areas west of the
Red River.


Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Monday night)
issued at 1135 PM CDT sun Sep 21 2014

VFR conditions expected through the period...except for some
patchy fog perhaps in the east late tonight. This could cause some
areas of MVFR visibilities in fog mainly near kbji. SW winds develop on
Monday and turn more southerly Monday night...but should remain at or
under 10kt.


Fgf watches/warnings/advisories...

long term...godon/tg

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations