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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1245 PM CDT Tuesday Jul 28 2015

issued at 1245 PM CDT Tuesday Jul 28 2015

Light showers have just about exited the kbde area. Otherwise
clouds are hanging back over areas just to the east of the Red
River valley and over the Devils Lake area...with the most sun
across southeast ND. Winds have become southwest over most of the
forecast area will now look for these winds to increase. Will likely
add a few more counties to the Wind Advisory with the 3 PM


Short term...(today through wednesday)
issued at 352 am CDT Tuesday Jul 28 2015

150+m height falls forecast over southern man and Ontario for today
and tonight as a strong Montana upper level trough moves across southern
Canada. Surface low pressure over southeast Saskatchewan forecast to deepen
significantly through 18z then move into northern Ontario by 48
hours. Precipitable water around an inch and a half over the area
and over 2 inches over eastern South Dakota. East-west cross section indicates
drier air moves in from the west today with thunderstorms occurring
along the boundary. Moist air shifts east today as dry slot moves
into the area. Expect strongest storms to the south...over South Dakota or on
the southern end of the current line. May keep the same trend for
today. Line continued to weaken this morning.

Model soundings indicate an adiabatic layer this afternoon and
essentially through Wednesday evening excepting 12z Wednesday. Winds to 60 knots
in this layer this afternoon and evening...especially the northwest
zones. Will issue a Wind Advisory for about the northwest half of
the forecast area. May need a High Wind Warning northwest
zones...will let next shift determine if needed. Windy yet Wednesday
morning and decreasing through the day.

Some wrap around precipitation expected over the far northern zones Tuesday
night and Wednesday.

Short wave over the eastern Pacific will move into southern Canada
Thursday after and evening and may produce precipitation over northern zones.

Long term...(wednesday night through monday)
issued at 352 am CDT Tuesday Jul 28 2015

For Friday through Monday...expect mainly dry weather with temperatures slightly
below normal. There will be several waves in northwest flow aloft...with
the best wave this weekend. Timing and overall coverage of any
convection will hinge on if waves come through at maximum
confidence not high on what day could produce showers/storms.


Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Wednesday afternoon)
issued at 1245 PM CDT Tuesday Jul 28 2015

Unseasonably strong for middle Summer surface low and upper low will move
east across southern Manitoba the next 24 hours. As it does look
for winds to shift from a more southwest direction this afternoon
and evening to a more west direction overnight and then west-
northwest Wednesday. Big issue is wind speeds and how high.
Highest wind core aloft at 925-850 mb (40-50 kts) comes over NE ND
overnight and not at time of peak heating. Thus not expecting that
to reach the surface. However...enough gradient south of the surface low
for sustained winds of 20-30 kts in eastern ND/Red River with higher gusts
through the afternoon and through the night into Wednesday. A bit lighter
winds the farther east you go in northern Minnesota. High wind
gusts expected west of the Red River valley over higher
terrain...where around dvl some wind gusts over 40 kts possible late
this aftn-eve. Dry slot and clearing area will work east through
the area this afternoon/evening followed by a period MVFR or low end VFR
ceilings for a time overnight into Wednesday morning.


Fgf watches/warnings/advisories...
ND...Wind Advisory until 11 PM CDT this evening for ndz006-007-014-

Wind Advisory until 11 PM CDT this evening for ndz008-016-

Minnesota...Wind Advisory until 11 PM CDT this evening for mnz001-004-005-



short term...hoppes

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