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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
647 PM CDT Friday Mar 27 2015

issued at 647 PM CDT Friday Mar 27 2015

Light snow has made it into kfar but has ended now at kdvl/kgfk.
High res models continue to show the light snow ending quickly
over the next couple of hours. This covered well in current
forecast so no changes needed at this point.


Short term...(this evening through Saturday night)
issued at 315 PM CDT Friday Mar 27 2015

Forecast concerns temperatures...wind and precipitation chances. Models
overall in pretty good agreement and will use blend.

Challenge this evening will be watching shrinking band of light
snow and if it will make it across the border into Minnesota. Band
entering western valley with snow ending across the northwest forecast area. So far
accumulations look light from regional inch or less.
High resolution models continue to diminish snow band through the
early evening and confine any residual -sn to the valley region.
Adjusted probability of precipitation with this thinking and next shift can adjust as
necessary. Modest warm advection continues overnight and with
clouds continuing good part of the night temperatures will not be
nearly as cold.

Surface pressure gradient tightens significantly tomorrow for
windy conditions. Currently looks marginal for Wind Advisory
criteria but later shifts will need to make determination. Warm
advection continues so with mixing temperatures should be able to
recover above average.

Quick moving cool front to sweep through the forecast area Saturday night.
Strong SW winds will switch to the northwest over the far northwest late evening
covering most of the forecast area by morning. All operational models fairly
robust with precipitation potential with amounts ranging from .10 to .5
inches. Expect mainly rain however could be a mix over northwest Minnesota
towards morning. Minimum temperatures should remain above freezing

Long term...(sunday through friday)
issued at 315 PM CDT Friday Mar 27 2015

Strong northwest winds Sunday and looking a bit more favorable for
reaching advisory criteria so will need to watch this. Even with
initial shot of cold advection decrease in cloud cover and no snow
cover should allow temperatures to recover well above average.

Winds will diminish Sunday evening allowing temperatures to dip
close to freezing.

Another weak boundary may bring some light showers to the region
Monday although models not in very good agreement with
placement. Temperatures will remain mild.

Tuesday to Friday...good agreement at the beginning of the period
with model solutions as upper level ridge propagates from the
intermountain west into the northern plains Tuesday into Wednesday.
With the ridging 850mb temperatures climb into the low teens by Wednesday PM
combined with S to SW surface winds maximum temperatures will be in the 50s and
60s. Thereafter a bit more spread develops as the 12z GFS and Gem
maintains a more progressive open 500mb wave versus the 12z ec which
features a closed 500mb circulation and pieces out a couple vorticity
maxes Thursday and Friday. Thus high confidence of above normal
temperatures on Tuesday and Wednesday with lower confidence in temperatures Thursday
and Friday. As for probability of precipitation and ptype...will maintain a low chance of
precipitation from Wednesday PM Onward with light rain potential during the day
changing over to light snow at night.


Aviation...(for the 00z tafs through 00z Saturday evening)
issued at 647 PM CDT Friday Mar 27 2015

Light snow should come to an end at kfar within the next hour or
so. Then the question becomes ceilings or fog. Some of the high res
guidance shows fog and low clouds remaining over our far west. For
now will keep some lower clouds around at kdvl and monitor to see
if other sites need them with later updates. Winds look pretty low
tonight but increase quickly again on Sat morning. Fairly gusty
south winds through the afternoon.


Fgf watches/warnings/advisories...


short term...voelker
long term...jk/voelker

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