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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
645 am CST Tuesday Dec 1 2015

issued at 644 am CST Tuesday Dec 1 2015

Snow bands continue to rotate through the central and southern
County Warning Area...made adjustments to probability of precipitation to fit radar trends. Continued to
keep high probability of precipitation going and will transition the main band to over the
southeastern counties by this afternoon. Still seem on track to
get another 1 to 3 inches of new snow before the activity tapers
off tonight.


Short term...(today through wednesday)
issued at 313 am CST Tuesday Dec 1 2015

Snow amounts and timing as the upper system continues to wrap
around the area will continue to be the challenge for the short

The upper low continues to be centered over southeastern South Dakota and
current radar shows a snow band across the central County Warning Area and another
just entering our southern counties. The rap and hrrr seem to have
a decent handle on what is currently going on and they both have the
snow bands moving only slightly north and then decreasing in
intensity later this morning. Adjusted probability of precipitation through the morning
for the snow bands...and bumped up amounts a bit over the
Cooperstown to Mayville to Fosston area through the morning.
Overall...most of the County Warning Area will continue to see light snow through
much of the day today...with fairly steady temperatures in the low 30s.

Both the high res and global models have a fairly vigorous snow
band setting up later today across our southeastern County Warning Area. This
seems to be from some 700mb frontogenesis that gets going as the
upper system wraps up and begins to pull away from the area. The
models are all fairly consistent on keeping some snowfall going
over our southeast into this evening. Some of the quantitative precipitation forecast may be
overdone...but there seems to be some good lift in the favorable
-15 c zone over the Park Rapids area. Think that another 2 to 3
inches on top of what already fell will be a possibility.
Thus...extended the advisory into this evening over the
southeastern counties.

The upper low will pull away from the area tonight...with
northwesterly winds behind the surface low. Skies will be clearing
behind the departing low over our western counties...but there
will actually be warm air advection behind this cut off system.
Still...with clearing skies and decreasing winds our western
counties should still drop into the teens with 20s in the east
with clouds. Temperatures Wednesday will be highly dependent on where
exactly the heaviest snow ends up but for now kept highs in the
upper 20s to low 30s.

Long term...(wednesday night through monday)
issued at 313 am CST Tuesday Dec 1 2015

Wednesday night through Thursday night...conditions will be very
quiet as upper ridging builds into the plains. Surface low pressure
developing to our north and west will keep winds from the south.
Temperatures will continue to be mild for this time of year with lows in
the teens and 20s and highs in the middle 30s.


Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Wednesday morning)
issued at 644 am CST Tuesday Dec 1 2015

Ceilings are mostly MVFR to VFR and the main restrictions have been to
visibility. Snow bands traveling through have brought visible down to
1-2sm at times...with some 3-5sm in the lighter snow outside the
main bands. The heavier snow bands will transition to more over
west central Minnesota by this afternoon...allowing the taf sites
to improve in visibility and ceilings should go up to VFR by this
evening. There could even be some clearing for all but kbji by the
end of the taf period. Winds will increase to around 12kts out of
the northwest today...then diminish down below 10 kts tonight.


Fgf watches/warnings/advisories...
ND...Winter Weather Advisory until midnight CST tonight for ndz053.

Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM CST this afternoon for ndz024-

Minnesota...Winter Weather Advisory until midnight CST tonight for mnz017-

Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM CST this afternoon for



short term...Jr
long term...Jr/wjb

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