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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
253 am CDT Tuesday Sep 16 2014

Short term...(today through wednesday)
issued at 253 am CDT Tuesday Sep 16 2014

Main challenge for today will revolve around the band of middle
clouds moving into the far northern forecast area now. Otherwise next chance
of precipitation looks to be slightly more delayed...arriving more Thursday
afternoon into Thursday night. As mentioned there is a band of middle
clouds now moving into the Lake of The Woods region. Models keep
some middle level moisture in a northwest to southeast band today...mainly
associated with the thermal gradient and a weak short wave under
the northwest flow aloft. Therefore will keep more clouds
mentioned in the far north and NE. Should see more sun in other
areas with high temperatures in the middle 60s to low 70s. Some of these middle
clouds may also linger into tonight in the same general area along
with pretty light winds. May even be a few sprinkles or light
showers around the Lake of The Woods region so did add that to the
forecast there late tonight into early Wednesday. The tighter thermal
gradient also pushes into the northeast forecast area on Wednesday which should
bring a little cooler temperatures to the north and NE.

Long term...(wednesday night through monday)
issued at 253 am CDT Tuesday Sep 16 2014

Start to see return flow Wednesday night with steady warm advection in
all areas. This will set Thursday up to be another warm day with highs
more in the low to middle 70s. Increasing surface pressure gradient
should also result in fairly breezy south winds. Models continue
to scale back on precipitation chances so did remove them from the Thursday
morning time frame. Still some uncertainty for this area Thursday
afternoon with the main surface focus still back over the western High
Plains. 700mb temperatures rise to +10c over most of central and western
ND with values a little lower into northwest Minnesota. This may cap any
convection with the surface forcing out west. However with the
uncertainty did keep with continuity and left the isolated thunder
potential Thursday afternoon. The warm 700mb temperatures crest over the forecast area
Thursday night along with steady 850mb warm advection/increasing
moisture values. The surface boundary will also move into the western
forecast area by Friday morning bringing a little better chance for showers and

For Friday through Monday night...the period will start with some showers
and storms with a shortwave and deeper moisture in place. Each model
run indicates more scattered nature to any convection Friday...with
the best chances in the south and east. A cool front will move
through the region on Sat...and there could be more showers. Drier
and slightly cooler weather will move in for Sunday...before another
warming trend and dry weather next week.


Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Tuesday night)
issued at 1136 PM CDT Monday Sep 15 2014

VFR through the period with no ceilings or visibility restricted anticipated.


Fgf watches/warnings/advisories...


Short term...godon
long term...godon/dk

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