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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
939 am CDT Wednesday Oct 22 2014

Update...
issued at 939 am CDT Wednesday Oct 22 2014

Today not looking quite as bad as models were showing yesterday.
There is actually a lot of morning sunshine along and east of the
Red River valley. A little bit more cloud cover is out across the
kdvl region where some high based showers are moving through. For
the most part any ceilings associated with the showers have all
been middle or high level. There have also been a few lightning
strikes out that way but these have been on the wane. Therefore
will just go with showers the rest of the day as it does look more
stable through the daytime hours. Have tried to narrow down the precipitation
area a little more as these showers are in a thin band so far and
are producing very little precipitation. They should move into the Red
River valley toward the noon hour and then eastward into Minnesota this
afternoon. South winds will stay rather gusty through the morning
and should then begin a slow decrease through the afternoon.

&&

Short term...(today through thursday)
issued at 359 am CDT Wednesday Oct 22 2014

Upper level trough over the northern rockies is forecast to move
across the forecast area tonight then take on more of a negative
tilt thereafter. Water vapor loop indicated upper level jet was
nosing into Nevada. Jet was undercutting short wave ridge over the
Pacific northwest.

Precipitable water rises to around an inch and a quarter by this
afternoon then shifts east Wednesday night. Showalter become negative as
850 hpa moisture transport shifts north and east today.

Upper level trough over the eastern Pacific forecast to dig a bit
Friday with down stream amplification of ridge/trough over The
Rockies/northern plains respectively. More dynamically forced
atmosphere with relatively strong/150+ knot/ upper level jet to nose
into far southern Canada Friday. Upper air pattern is quite
progressive.

Long term...(thursday night through tuesday)
issued at 359 am CDT Wednesday Oct 22 2014

For Sat through Tuesday...expect overall dry weather with warm temperatures
cooling to near or slightly below normal by early next week. Models
are in decent agreement early...and differ thereafter with respect
to how much cold air will spill into the northern plains early next
week. For now...will go with the model consensus for temperatures overall.

&&

Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Thursday morning)
issued at 701 am CDT Wednesday Oct 22 2014

VFR conditions were across the area this morning. A narrow band of
broken clouds with ceilings around 45 hundred feet extended from axn to
tvf. Band was moving to the east at 20-25 knots. Patchy middle and high
clouds were over eastern ND. Expect ceilings to remain VFR this
afternoon. May see MVFR conditions with showers this afternoon.

&&

Fgf watches/warnings/advisories...
ND...none.
Minnesota...none.
&&

$$

Update...godon
short term...hoppes
long term...dk
aviation...hoppes

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