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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1244 PM CDT Tuesday Jul 29 2014

Update...
issued at 1244 PM CDT Tuesday Jul 29 2014

Cumulus development is underway but is a little thicker across the
west and south right now. Will go ahead and update to go with a
little more cloud cover in these areas. Otherwise will keep the
northwest dry as the latest high resolution models show any precipitation
if it develops staying just to the west of the forecast area.

&&

Short term...(today through wednesday)
issued at 318 am CDT Tuesday Jul 29 2014

Not much change to the pattern as northwesterly flow aloft
continues and high pressure remains over the northern plains. Will
have to watch the western counties were dew point depressions are
getting close to zero and winds have been light. Will include some
patchy fog mention through morning...mainly in the west and areas
in the southeastern valley where dew point depressions are the
lowest. Any fog should burn off quickly and highs this afternoon
will climb into the upper 70s...a few degrees warmer than
yesterday.

The northwesterly flow and surface high pressure will continue into
tonight and Wednesday. Temperatures will fall into the low to middle 50s and
with light winds we may again have to watch for some spots of
patchy fog formation. Highs on Wednesday should again be a few
degrees warmer as winds pick up just a bit and mix 850mb temperatures in
the teens c.

Long term...(wednesday night through monday)
issued at 318 am CDT Tuesday Jul 29 2014

Wednesday night through Thursday night...north to northwesterly
flow aloft and high pressure continue. Models show some signs of a
weak shortwave coming along the backside of the upper ridge late
Thursday. The NAM is the most bullish and has decent quantitative precipitation forecast over the
valley...but the GFS is dry and the European model (ecmwf) and Gem are less
impressive and further east. Placement of such minor disturbances
this far out is tough...so for now will just keep the 20 probability of precipitation we
have going for our northeast corner and monitor for now. Temperatures
should continue to moderate towards seasonal averages.

Friday to Tuesday...good agreement in consistency for the extended
with 500mb northwest flow aloft and slowly warming thermal profile as
western Continental U.S. Ridge influence felt by the weekend. Isolated pockets
of chance thunder through the weekend with best chance for convective
activity tied to ridge rider and possible frontal passage on Sunday.

&&

Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Wednesday afternoon)
issued at 1244 PM CDT Tuesday Jul 29 2014

VFR conds throughout taf periods. Cumulus field will dissipate by middle
evening and clear skies expected overnight. May see some lowered
visibilities due to fog/mist in the morning but not enough confidence on
exact locations to mention on this set of tafs. Weak northwest flow
throughout period.

&&

Fgf watches/warnings/advisories...
ND...none.
Minnesota...none.
&&

$$

Update...godon
short term...Jr
long term...Jr/jk
aviation...speicher

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