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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
942 PM CDT Friday Jul 31 2015

issued at 941 PM CDT Friday Jul 31 2015

No update necessary.

Update issued at 628 PM CDT Friday Jul 31 2015

Forecast changes.


Short term...(this evening through Saturday night)
issued at 244 PM CDT Friday Jul 31 2015

Northwest flow continues to steer the weather across the northern
plains and as a result the relatively quiet and overall dry...less
humid weather will continue across the forecast area. The scattered high
based cumulus will diminish along with gustiness this evening. Showers
tstorm chances for the Lake of The Woods appear to be lessening as
convective development in Ontario remains just NE of lotw. Will
keep the slight probability of precipitation in the evening in case a stray cell moves
through. Tonight clear again and possibly some low lying ground
fog in the am...though have been dry and windy of late with none
this past morning so will keep out of the grids.

Saturday will see a bit warmer temperatures as weak short wave in
the northwest flow aloft approaches and induces surface winds to become
southerly in the afternoon. This wave and increase in low level
moisture will bring tstorm chances to the area by late afternoon and
into the evening for two areas. The first in west central Minnesota
associated with the surface low and the second across the northern
tier and into northwest Minnesota as the upper low over Hudson Bay wraps a vorticity
maximum and brings it south through Manitoba towards the forecast area from the

Long term...(sunday through friday)
issued at 244 PM CDT Friday Jul 31 2015

Sunday will see lingering shower and thunderstorms chances and
cooler air on northwest winds as high pressure builds into the area.
Temperatures Sunday and Monday will be cooler than Saturday as
850mb temperatures fall from around 20c to 10c by 70s for
highs to the area by Monday.

Tuesday-Friday...region will begin the period in northwest flow
aloft under the influence of surface high pressure. The upper low
across Hudson Bay will begin to slowly propagate east...allowing
the upper flow to become more zonal by later in the week. The main
question at this point will be exactly how quickly this evolution
occurs. Thunder chances increase mid-week...although this may be
too quick considering the GFS/European model (ecmwf) depiction of higher low level
moisture remaining west until later in the week. Temperatures
generally near normal values.


Aviation...(for the 00z tafs through 00z Saturday evening)
issued at 628 PM CDT Friday Jul 31 2015



Fgf watches/warnings/advisories...


short term...jk
long term...jk/tg

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