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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
331 am CDT Wednesday Sep 2 2015

Short term...(today through thursday)
issued at 330 am CDT Wednesday Sep 2 2015

The main challenge will be temperatures then convective chances late this
week through this weekend. Models are in very good agreement with
large scale features...and prefer the NAM moisture/thermal fields.

For today and will be warm and hot with temperatures around
90 today...then into the low perhaps middle 90s on Thursday. We could
approach record highs on Thursday...along with heat indices around

Long term...(thursday night through tuesday)
issued at 330 am CDT Wednesday Sep 2 2015

On Friday/Friday night...strong instability will develop across the
region along with precipitable waters around 2 inches. A shortwave will move
into the Dakotas with a surface boundary pushing into eastern ND
around 00z Sat. Expect showers and storms to develop on Friday in
the far west...moving east through Friday night. The best deep
shear remains to the west slightly removed from the warm
sector...but there should be enough MLCAPE around 2000 j/kg and
strengthening low level jet to promote strong to some severe storms. The
threat for heavy rain will also exist with the slow moving
boundary nearly parallel to the upper flow. Storm Prediction Center has introduced a
marginal risk for severe storms on day 3...and this fits well with
our thinking.

For Saturday-Tuesday...very moist southwest flow will continue
through the weekend...ahead of an upper low that is expected to
eject into the northern plains by late Sunday. The 00z GFS/European model (ecmwf)
maintain a surface boundary over the southeast portion of the area
into Sunday with weak upper waves riding northeastward ahead of
the main low...providing periods of showers and storms with the
potential for locally heavy rainfall. Additional storms could fire
as the cold front approaches late in the weekend. Some stronger
storms are possible...depending on surface boundary placement and how
much destabilization can occur. Details are still somewhat unclear
on the timing of waves and placement of convection/surface
boundaries...but it certainly looks unsettled. Seasonably warm and
humid conditions will continue through the weekend.

As the upper low progresses to near the southern Canadian prairies
on Labor Day...drier and cooler air will work into the region as
highs fall back closer to seasonal averages. Highs in some areas may
remain in the 60s by early week...along with breezy westerly


Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Wednesday night)
issued at 1136 PM CDT Tuesday Sep 1 2015

Convective development overnight remains too uncertain to mention
in any tafs. Did mention some br development towards morning as
low level moist air continues to spread northward.


Fgf watches/warnings/advisories...



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