Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1118 PM CST Wednesday Nov 25 2015

issued at 1118 PM CST Wednesday Nov 25 2015

Many of the clear holes looked to have filled back in so rest of
the night should stay mainly cloudy. North winds are still fairly
steady and will remain that way overnight too.


Short term...(this evening through Thursday night)
issued at 300 PM CST Wednesday Nov 25 2015

The main challenge for this forecast will be temperatures. All of
the travel headaches for Thanksgiving will occur well to the south
of our forecast area. Models are in good overall agreement.

For tonight...there should be a few flurries with some channeled
vorticity moving moving through SW flow aloft. The best chance
for a few flurries should be in the north. Otherwise...temperatures
should fall into the teens for most areas with lower 20s south and

For Thanksgiving...there should be decreasing amounts of cloud
cover by afternoon developing from northwest to southeast. Highs will be cold
though...and should struggle around 20 in the north and middle 20s
in the south. Northerly winds will decrease by afternoon with high
pressure dominating the sensible weather.

For Thursday night...temperatures will fall into the single digits
above in the north and around 10 elsewhere.

Long term...(friday through wednesday)
issued at 300 PM CST Wednesday Nov 25 2015

On Friday and Saturday...continued dry weather is expected with
warming middle level temperatures. The Mercury should slowly climb
above normal by Saturday with more of a zonal flow and plenty of

For Sunday through Wednesday...upper air pattern remains split
over the states. Long wave trough over the intermountain west will
move into the plains on sun or Monday and will move to the
Mississippi Valley by the end of the period. Long wave ridge will
remain over western Canada.

The GFS was a faster solution compared with the European model (ecmwf) with the
northern stream. The European model (ecmwf) was the faster solution with the southern
stream compared to the GFS. The European model (ecmwf) was trending faster over the
last couple runs while the GFS was trending slightly slower. Will
blend the two models.

High temperatures were decreased a degree or so for sun Monday and Tuesday and
increase a degree or two for Wednesday from this mornings package.


Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Thursday night)
issued at 1118 PM CST Wednesday Nov 25 2015

Very tricky forecast. Big question is when ceilings will improve.
Guidance is trying to show improvement by Thursday afternoon and
evening. However confidence in any model solution is nearly none
and will go with a persistence forecast for now...keeping things
about where they are at now into at least middle Thursday morning. Will
just have to adjust as need be.


Fgf watches/warnings/advisories...


long term...hoppes/dk

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations