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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
232 PM CDT Friday Oct 9 2015

Short term...(this evening through Saturday night)
issued at 232 PM CDT Friday Oct 9 2015

Temperatures will be the primary concern for the period.

The surface trough over Alberta and Saskatchewan will move eastward
tonight...allowing south to southwesterly winds to pick up across
the Red River valley. With warm air advection and good mixing from
the winds...temperatures will stay near the 50 degree mark
overnight. The winds will also keep fog from being a problem again
tonight. The upper ridge will build into the plains
tomorrow...while surface winds will become more westerly as the
Canadian trough axis pushes east. This will help bring 16 to 20 c
at 850mb into the County Warning Area. With plenty of sun and good mixing...temperatures
will get into the middle to upper 70s in the east and north with some
80s possible in the central and southern portions of the County Warning Area. Not
quite record levels...but extremely warm for this time of year.

The upper ridge will flatten out a bit Saturday night as a
shortwave trough digs into the northern rockies and then moves out
into the Dakotas for Sunday. With the thermal ridge overhead on
Saturday and the winds still cranking...temperatures will stay in the

Long term...(sunday through friday)
issued at 232 PM CDT Friday Oct 9 2015

Sunday and Monday...the shortwave trough will move through the
Dakotas and then off towards the Great Lakes. Models have been
trending a bit faster with the frontal passage on
Sunday...bringing the boundary through during the afternoon hours.
Still with a warm start think that at least the southern and
eastern counties will still hit well into the 80s on Sunday. Think
that the northwestern County Warning Area will peak early for their high in the
70s and then drop in the late afternoon. Much cooler air comes in
behind the front...although strong northwest winds will keep US
from completely decoupling. Kept lows Sunday night mostly in the
40s and highs on Monday will only top out in the 50s to low 60s.
There will be some scattered showers behind the cold front as the
shortwave moves through...mainly in the northern County Warning Area. Have some
high chance probability of precipitation going Sunday night before tapering off on Monday.

Tuesday to Friday...a very typical fall like period with confluent
500mb northwest flow aloft causing surface ridging. This set up will bring
overall dry weather and seasonal temperatures to the northern plains with
highs in the upper 50s to low 60s and lows in the 30s and 40s. A
weak short wave does look to move through the region Thursday with a
chance of showers in the the Lake of The Woods area.


Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Saturday afternoon)
issued at 1230 PM CDT Friday Oct 9 2015

VFR to be the story for the rest of the day and most of
the weekend. High cirrus may get thick across the area today with
south to southwest surface winds around 10kts. Overnight winds stay up
as mixing remain strong...may even increase a bit in strength in the
valley and west.


Fgf watches/warnings/advisories...


Short term...Jr
long term...Jr/jk

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