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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1221 PM CST Friday Nov 27 2015

issued at 1219 PM CST Friday Nov 27 2015

Forecast in good shape. No update necessary.

Update issued at 945 am CST Friday Nov 27 2015

No changes this update period.

Update issued at 638 am CST Friday Nov 27 2015

Minor adjustments made to temperatures. Overnight lows fell just
below zero in portions of the far northwest...north of Devils
Lake. Mostly clear skies over region now...and do not expect patch
of clouds over central ND to impact our area. Will tweak down sky other changes planned.


Short term...(today through saturday)
issued at 245 am CST Friday Nov 27 2015

Main forecast challenge for the short term will be temperatures as
a ridge axis over the region sinks to the south east Friday night
into Saturday. NAM/Gem guidance seem aggressively cold for tonight
and Saturday night temperatures and will stick with blended

Ridge axis currently extends from S central ND through the northern
valley and into northwest Minnesota. High pressure will sink into South Dakota
tonight...with a slightly higher pressure gradient setting up
across the north on Saturday...shifting winds to the SW.

Today...patch of lower ceilings over northeaster ND should advect to
the east/southeast today as ridge axis moves out of region.
Expect solar will help erode this as well...with increasing
sunshine across the region today. Single digit Thursday night lows will
bring a cold start to today...with recovery limited to the middle to
upper 20s.

Tonight...increasing gradient will result in SW winds developing
as surface high moves into South Dakota...which should bring overnight lows back
into double digits (low teens).

Saturday...SW flow increases and temperatures will climb back into the
lower 30s as full solar expected throughout the day. Warmest temperatures
will be across southwestern zones and coolest in the North East
models indicating h925 temperatures increasing from 10 to 15 below Thursday
night to around o to 5 below by Sat afternoon.

Long term...(saturday night through thursday)
issued at 245 am CST Friday Nov 27 2015 upper low will move into western South Dakota by noon Sunday...and
will see an increase in cloud cover across SW zones Sun afternoon. GFS
begins to lift precipitation northward out of the Central Plains Sun
night...with NAM a bit quicker with precipitation in northeastern South Dakota.
Increasing return flow will bring maximum temperatures back into middle 30s Sun
afternoon. Will continue dry forecast for Sun night...however could see
some warm advection activity in the far southern valley in the
06z to 12z Monday timeframe.

Monday through Thursday...models are all in fairly good agreement on
bringing the cut off upper low out into the Central Plains on Monday
and into the upper Midwest Tuesday...with some minor variations on
the details. The system will be mostly to our south...but light snow
clipping our southern counties seems kept chance probability of precipitation
going for early next week. Surface high pressure will build in behind it
for Wednesday and Thursday and keep US dry for the end of the
period. Temperatures will remain mild throughout the period with readings
near or slightly above seasonal averages. &&

Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Friday night)
issued at 1139 PM CST Thursday Nov 26 2015

Slowly shrinking band of MVFR clouds btn dvl and gfk may move east
enough to bring scattered clouds to Grand Forks Airport. Around
Bemidji some scattered MVFR clouds may remain overnight. Otherwise
skies mainly clear and with The Levels drying out Friday expect
few if any clouds. Winds light north-northwest turning southwest
and increase to 10 to 15 kts in eastern ND Friday midday-aftn.


Fgf watches/warnings/advisories...


Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Saturday afternoon)
issued at 1219 PM CST Friday Nov 27 2015

Lake-crafted low stratus currently diminishing vicinity kdvl is
expected to dissipate by middle afternoon...with VFR conditions and
southwest winds prevailing through Saturday.


Fgf watches/warnings/advisories...


short term...speicher
long term...Jr/speicher

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