Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
652 am CST Monday Feb 8 2016

issued at 652 am CST Monday Feb 8 2016

Many observation across the area are still showing 1 sm or less visible...and
web cams in some spots continue to look to have poor conditions.
The radar shows that the snow showers continue to very slowly
weaken...but they will continue a while longer and with winds
still around 20 to 30 miles per hour with gusts to 40...blowing snow will
continue to be an issue through the morning hours. Visible are not
down to 1/4sm so will let the Blizzard Warning go but have
extended the Winter Weather Advisory for the Red River valley
counties. The west has seen winds come down so let the Wind
Advisory go. The east has the shelter of the trees so visible is not
as bad and let the advisory expire in that area.


Short term...(today through tuesday)
issued at 401 am CST Monday Feb 8 2016

Snow showers...wind...and what to do with headlines will be the
main forecast headache for the short term.

Streaks of snow continue over the central Red River valley...with
poor visibility under the heavier bands. Some improvement over the
far northern valley has been going on for the past few hours...and
the hrrr and rap have a sharp decrease in snow activity by 12z.
However...models have been too fast to get rid of the precipitation all
night. With winds and periodic low visible...will keep winter headlines
going through 12z and take another look later this morning to see
if they need to be extended or not.

Winds continue to be quite strong this morning with gusts above 36
kts still going at Fargo and Grand Forks. The short range models
have 45 kts at 925mb with even higher speeds at 850mb. Mixing
continues to be good for this time of night...around 900 to 875mb.
Winds should slowly decrease today as the surface low moves off to the
east...but will continue to be high for a while this morning.
Think Wind Advisory level winds will be possible over at least the
southern Red River valley through the morning and even into the
early afternoon. Even with higher wind speeds...think that once
snow stops actively falling the visibility situation will improve. long as snow showers stop as expected it will mainly be
a matter of changing over from winter headlines to Wind Advisory
at 12z. Will monitor the radar...observation and web cams during the next
few hours to determine how to adjust headlines when the time
comes but will keep them as they are for now.

Tonight and Tuesday should be much more quiet as north to
northwesterly flow aloft sets up and surface high pressure builds into
the northern plains. Temperatures should be colder than what we have been
seeing lately...mainly over the northeastern County Warning Area where they will
get the brunt of the colder air mass. With temperatures dipping down
close to 10 below zero tonight in the northeast...and some winds
hanging on in that area...wind chills could get down to advisory
criteria. However...with ongoing current headlines will wait to
put out anything additional for tomorrow morning. Highs on Tuesday
should be close to zero in the northeast but about 15 to 20
degrees warmer in the far southwest where thickness values will be

Long term...(tuesday night through sunday)
issued at 401 am CST Monday Feb 8 2016

Tuesday night through Wednesday night...northwesterly flow aloft
continues...with surface high pressure starting to move off to the
east. A jet streak coming through the flow will bring some lift
and create some light snow over mainly our western counties for
Wednesday. Think that the snow is less likely for Wednesday night
as the jet streak will have moved off by then so went with the
lower blended probability of precipitation instead of the very wet NAM. Temperatures will
continue to be well below average in the northeastern counties
with slightly higher readings in the southwest.

Thursday through Sunday...high amplitude upper air pattern was
over North America with an upper level trough over the Great
Lakes and the eastern states and an upper level ridge over the
West Coast. Pattern Delaware-amplifies over the period with upper ridge
remaining over the West Coast and the upper trough shifting to New
England and off the East Coast. The GFS was a faster solution then
the European model (ecmwf). Also the GFS was trending faster and the European model (ecmwf) was
trending slower over the last couple runs. Will blend the two
models. Upper level trough forecast to move through Sat night
through Sun night.

High temperatures were decreased a degree or so for Thursday. Highs were
decreased two to four degrees on Friday...decreased five to six
degrees on Sat and increased one to four degrees on sun.


Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Tuesday morning)
issued at 652 am CST Monday Feb 8 2016

Visible continue to be impacted by blowing snow. Currently worst
conditions are at kfar...with 2-5sm at kgfk and kbji. Visible have
come up to VFR at kdvl...although ceilings are still MVFR. MVFR ceilings
and visible will continue through most of the morning...with some visible
around or below 1sm at times mainly around kfar. Think that the
blowing snow will eventually decrease...with visible back up and MVFR
ceilings by late morning. Think that we should see some VFR conditions
by the end of the period. North winds will continue to gust above
30 kts at kgfk and kfar...but should gradually decrease throughout
the day.


Fgf watches/warnings/advisories...
ND...Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST today for ndz007-008-016-

Minnesota...Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST today for mnz001>005-007-



short term...Jr
long term...Jr/hoppes

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations