Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
309 PM CDT Tuesday Apr 21 2015

Short term...(this evening through Wednesday night)
issued at 309 PM CDT Tuesday Apr 21 2015

The main forecast challenge will be how fast the clouds move off to
the east tonight and the resulting temperatures. As of 3 PM there was some
clearing working into the far northern Red River valley and the
Devils Lake region. Therefore would expect this clearing to continue
to spread southward this evening. The clouds will probably linger
the longest across northwest Minnesota and especially across the Lake of
The Woods to kbji corridor. The gusty northwest-north winds will
stay up into the evening then become the lowest across the far
western forecast area late. So the question is how much drop will occur across
especially the far western forecast area once the winds drop off and sunrise.
Have gone with lower 20s but if winds drop off sooner would not be
surprised to see some upper teens in the traditional cold spots.
Ribbon of high pressure works in for Wednesday. Once again winds will pick
up a little by late morning into the afternoon. Not looking at Wind
Advisory criteria by any means...but still some gusty north-northwest winds in
the 20-25 miles per hour range. Combined with falling humidity levels...will be
looking at fire weather parameters close to criteria once again in
the southeast forecast area. See the fire weather discussion below.

Long term...(thursday through tuesday)
issued at 309 PM CDT Tuesday Apr 21 2015

Ribbon of high pressure remains over the forecast area into Thursday and finally
winds will be lighter. Temperature recovery remains slow however. A
little more uncertainty enters the forecast by Thursday night with the
American models dry and the European model (ecmwf)/Gem wetter. For now will stay
with a dry forecast and see what later runs have in store. Did
keep the precipitation chances on Friday though...although there are many
differences in regard to where and how much.

Friday night-Tuesday...models have become less consistent and thus
less reliable over the past couple of days. The main issue deals
with the deep upper low that will be moving off the East Coast and
strong waves across the western coast. The progression of these
features will affect the amplitude of the upper pattern across the
northern plains...and determine if any upper level energy will
affect the region. Temperatures should be near normal values.


Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Wednesday afternoon)
issued at 1248 PM CDT Tuesday Apr 21 2015

The trend will be for improving conditions by this
evening...especially along and west of the valley. Rap/hrrr guidance
supports clearing sky by late afternoon for areas along and west of
the valley...and sometime during the overnight hours east of the
valley. Strong north/northwest winds will diminish to below 12 knots
across most areas after sunset.


Fire weather...
issued at 309 PM CDT Tuesday Apr 21 2015

Critical fire weather conditions are possible across wc Minnesota Wednesday
afternoon. Winds overall will be a bit lighter region wide as high
pressure approaches...but gusts above 25 kts are expected over wc Minnesota
during the afternoon. Good mixing should allow relative humidity to fall into the
25 to 30 percent range...locally lower in spots. Have issued a Fire
Weather Watch for wc Minnesota counties for Wednesday afternoon.


Fgf watches/warnings/advisories...
ND...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ndz007-008-015-016-

Minnesota...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for mnz001>005-007-008-

Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
evening for mnz030>032-040.



Short term...godon
long term...godon/tg
fire weather...makowski

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations