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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
637 PM CDT Wednesday Jul 1 2015

Update...
issued at 635 PM CDT Wednesday Jul 1 2015

The main challenge overnight will be very low chance for
convection and fog potential. Water vapor imagery shows as strong
shortwave moving into NE Montana this evening...and most of this
convection should miss all but the far west later tonight. There
area few showers near kbji near some weak surface moisture flux
convergence. Most areas should remain dry overnight...and can/T
rule out some very shallow/patchy fog. Won't mention for now with
BUFKIT not too excited about potential...and smoke is getting a
bit thicker that could prevent temperatures from falling too far
overnight.

&&

Short term...(this evening through Thursday night)
issued at 325 PM CDT Wednesday Jul 1 2015

Forecast challenges concerns temperatures and low end precipitation
chances. Models in reasonable agreement and will use blend for
forecast.

Shortwave propagating into NE Montana will continue to slide southeast
overnight. Expect rain showers/thunderstorms and rain to become better organized over
western/central ND and propagate southeast in deeper moisture axis as
wave approaches. Best chances across the west-SW will be likely after
midnight as feature passes. Little change in thermal profiles but
with slightly warmer temperatures today minimums may be a bit
warmer.

Could see some lingering rain showers across the far west/SW tomorrow am with
most areas remaining dry. Temperatures will be challenging.
Thinner smoke shield today allowed temperatures to rise a bit
warmer however appears to be thicker smoke layer upstream which
may hold temperatures lower tomorrow.

Weak surface boundary enters the far northern forecast area later Thursday
night so maintained low end probability of precipitation along boundary.

Long term...(friday through wednesday)
issued at 325 PM CDT Wednesday Jul 1 2015

Weak boundary sags southward Friday however with moisture somewhat
limited and upper support/surface convergence weak will not
increase probability of precipitation.

Boundary drops south of forecast area Friday night and washes out so will
keep forecast dry.

Return flow and warm advection stronger Independence day so
temperatures should be warmer. Also middle level flow more westerly
so smoke may not be as much of an issue with temperatures.

Sunday to Wednesday...westerly to northwest flow continues and as a
result temperatures will be below early July normals...depending highly on
cloud/smoke coverage. Expecting highs in the upper 70s to near 80
with lows in the upper 50s. Rain chances with short waves on
Saturday night late into Sunday and again possibly Wednesday of next
week. Thunder for Saturday night appears to enter the area from the
west in the 6 to 12z time frame...should be late enough for 4th
celebrations to not be impacted. 12z ec suggests a wide spread area
of precipitation possible across the region for Sunday. Given time of year
and strength of short wave some stronger storms can be expected with
severe storms possible...with normal uncertainties in placement and
timing of frontal passage.

&&

Aviation...(for the 00z tafs through 00z Thursday evening)
issued at 635 PM CDT Wednesday Jul 1 2015

Expect VFR conditions with light and variable winds tonight. Winds
should turn to a southerly direction on Thursday but remain at or
under 10kt for the most part.

&&

Fgf watches/warnings/advisories...
ND...none.
Minnesota...none.
&&

$$

Update...dk
short term...voelker
long term...jk/voelker
aviation...dk

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