Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1015 am CDT Sat Aug 29 2015

issued at 1002 am CDT Sat Aug 29 2015

Fog continues to linger across parts of the north late this
morning. Expect visibilities to be above 3 Michigan by noon. Smoke has
limited sun this morning across the rest of the area...may
consider lowering highs a bit if trends indicate the need to do
so. Also..looking at 1 hour average surface smoke forecast...there may may be
surface smoke to deal with today and tonight. This potential
combined with smoke obscuring sun...have added areas of smoke to
grids. Tomorrow...ridge axis moves east...and smoke is expected
to decrease.

Update issued at 656 am CDT Sat Aug 29 2015

Patchy fog appears limited to areas along and north of U.S.
Highway 2... and should be dissipating soon. Otherwise no
significant updates were needed this eary morning.


Short term...(today through sunday)
issued at 330 am CDT Sat Aug 29 2015

Expect some patchy fog through the early morning period with fog
diminishing quickly with sunrise. Light and variable winds will
give way to an increasing southerly flow by middle morning. Light
southerly winds are then expected throughout the remainder of the
day...with smoke and haze partially obscuring an otherwise fair
sky. Temperatures should warm well into the 80s across Minnesota
lakes country and the Red River valley...pushing towards the lower
90s in central North Dakota.

Long term...(sunday night through friday)
issued at 330 am CDT Sat Aug 29 2015

Sunday night and Monday...model guidance now depicts a fairly
strong 500 mb shortwave trough pushing across the northern rockies
Sunday evening and into the northern plains on Monday...shoving
our warm 500 mb ridge over the Great Lakes and introducing a more
unstable southwest flow pattern over the area. With southwest
flow aloft and an increasing moist southerly flow near the
surface...theres a good chance of showers and thunderstorms
pushing across the eastern Dakotas into western Minnesota
throughout the day on Monday.

Tuesday through Friday...southwest flow aloft will continue
through the period in between western US troughing and broad
ridging to the east. Very warm to hot temperatures will continue...while
persistent low level southerly flow helps to maintain a seasonably
moist air mass over the area. Highs could approach or eclipse 90
in spots during the middle to latter half of the week. The model
trend over the past 24 hours has been to slow down a bit the
approaching upper trough from the west later in the week as the
flow forecast confidence does erode late in the
week with timing issues. Expect most hours to be dry...especially
assuming a slower the stronger upper jet support
remains north while warmer middle-level temperatures spread into the area. A
few storms are possible with any weak embedded waves...especially
on the periphery of stronger capping.


Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Sunday morning)
issued at 656 am CDT Sat Aug 29 2015

Expect scattered LIFR ceilings and visibilities in ground fog mainly along
and north of U.S. Highway 2 through 13z. Then partial
obscurations in light smoke or haze are possible into middle
morning across eastern ND. Else fair skies and light southerly
winds will persist throughout the day.


Fgf watches/warnings/advisories...


short term...gust
long term...gust/makowski

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations