Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
939 am CDT Friday Oct 24 2014

issued at 940 PM CDT Friday Oct 24 2014

Main forecast challenge for short term is temperatures and sky
trends. A vorticity maximum currently apparent on WV loop over southern
Manitoba...but any associated showers will stay north of the international
border. Lower clouds across the north may impact temperatures...however
mainly cirrus across the south. Highway two corridor starting the day
clear and may be the warmest part of the County Warning Area today. Will adjust
temperatures for current trends and make slight adjustments based on
early morning sky cover. Afternoon winds will also be an issue
as they have been expected to increase to near advisory conds
later in the day. So far winds across southern Saskatchewan not too impressive
but will monitor upstream conds and address potential advisory if
needed. No changes planned for wind grids at this time.

Update issued at 702 am CDT Friday Oct 24 2014

No changes at this update.


Short term...(today through saturday)
issued at 400 am CDT Friday Oct 24 2014

Water vapor loop indicated a short wave over the southern Alberta/Saskatchewan
border and was moving east. Short wave was riding over an upper
level ridge. Also a strong upper level jet was along the south side
of the short wave and jet was nosing into western ND. Jet will shift
north and east Friday and Friday night while short wave will intensify
over eastern Canada. Large upper trough over the eastern Pacific
will intensify and a downstream ridge will build over The Rockies
today and tonight. Upper level ridge will shift over the forecast
area Sat night.

Upper level trough over the eastern Pacific will weaken and move
across the area by 84 hours. Upper air pattern remains quite

A windy day expected mainly over the Devils Lake basin today.
Potential for 35 to 40 knots to mix down as adiabatic layer is
forecast from surface to around 850 hpa. Some relative humidities
are expected to fall into the 25 to 30 percent range this afternoon
in the Devils Lake basin. Respectable warm advection forecast for
Sun afternoon and night. Will shift precipitation more to the northern Red
River valley sun and Sun night.

Long term...(saturday night through thursday)
issued at 400 am CDT Friday Oct 24 2014

For Monday through Thursday 00z GFS/European model (ecmwf) continue to advertise a
more zonal pattern with temperature returning to more normal late
October values. An 500 mb trough/low will move along the Canadian
border Monday. Surface low and most of the precipitation just north of the
Canadian border Monday then as it moves east system does wrap up
some and sends colder air briefly southward Monday night into Tuesday
with lingering light showers. Colder air gets shunted east quickly
ahead of next 500 mb short wave which will move along the border Wednesday
night into Thursday. European model (ecmwf) models remains a tad stronger and wetter
with these than the GFS. Precipitation amounts with each of these
systems are pretty light and with cooler air had to throw in some
mix of rain/snow at times in the northern parts of the forecast area at


Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Saturday morning)
issued at 702 am CDT Friday Oct 24 2014

VFR conditions were across the forecast area with high level clouds.
Expect high level clouds to move across the area for today. Some middle
level clouds with ceilings around 10 thousand feet may brush areas along
the international border. Expect VFR conditions for today and
tonight. Windy conditions forecast for today with west winds at 15
to 30 miles per hour with higher gusts. Strongest winds should be in the Devils
Lake basin. Winds will settle down near sunset.


Fgf watches/warnings/advisories...


short term...hoppes
long term...Riddle

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations