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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1149 PM CST Friday Feb 27 2015

Update...
issued at 930 PM CST Friday Feb 27 2015

The typical cold spots (i.E. Fosston) are near forecasted min
temperatures and will adjust these isolated areas colder.
Otherwise...forecast appears to be on track. If anything...min
temperatures may be a bit warmer than forecasted given increasing
cirrus...warm air advection aloft...and increasing southerly flow.

&&

Short term...(this evening through Saturday night)
issued at 300 PM CST Friday Feb 27 2015

Some very light snow/flurry chances and temperatures are the main
challenges. Models are in good agreement overall...with no
preference today.

For tonight...return flow will continue and temperatures will be warmer
than past nights. It will be mostly clear with some cirrus
perhaps...but temperatures will not fall that much given southerly winds.

On Saturday/Sat night...a shortwave will move through by
afternoon. There will be some deeper layered saturation and q
vector divergence implying some lift. Models do indicate some
minor quantitative precipitation forecast in the east by afternoon continuing into Sat night. Not
expecting much snow at all though...perhaps up to a half inch at
most. Temperatures will warm some from Friday...and could reach 20 in
most areas.

Long term...(sunday through friday)
issued at 300 PM CST Friday Feb 27 2015

On Sunday...there will be another shortwave in cyclonic flow
aloft. We will add some flurries to the Central Valley. Temperatures
should be very similar to Saturday with similar thermal fields.

For Monday...it should warm up ahead of a cold front. Temperatures should
warm well into the 20s even perhaps getting to 30 if there is more
sunshine than expected.

Monday night into Tuesday will see the approach of the next cold
front as a 500 mb system drops south through central Canada. Also
in the mix is an area of low pressure which will be gathering
strength over the Central Plains. The surface low will head toward
southern Wisconsin Tuesday as the cold front and Canadian upper
system drops south into North Dakota/northwest Minnesota. The result is
for this northern system to keep moisture from the system to our
south from reaching our area. There will be a slight chance for a
light snow with the actual cold front later Monday night into
Tuesday...mainly in northwestern Minnesota.

A sharp cool down in store for Wednesday as 850 mb temperatures in the -25c
to -30c move overhead. This system will move east quickly allowing
for temperature moderation by Friday as the 500 mb flow becomes a
bit more zonal. 12z GFS a bit warmer than 12z European model (ecmwf).

&&

Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Saturday night)
issued at 1149 PM CST Friday Feb 27 2015

No change in thinking with this issuance. VFR conditions expected
into Saturday evening. High clouds tonight...with gradually
lowering ceilings on Saturday. Winds should remain below 12
knots...generally from a southerly direction.

&&

Fgf watches/warnings/advisories...
ND...none.
Minnesota...none.
&&

$$

Update...tg
short term...dk
long term...dk/Riddle
aviation...tg

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