Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1240 PM CDT Friday may 29 2015

Update...
issued at 1235 PM CDT Friday may 29 2015

Rain winding down across the far south and lowered probability of precipitation for the
afternoon. Breaks in the clouds continue and with main push of
cold advection south of the area will hold with current maximum
temperature forecast.

Update issued at 935 am CDT Friday may 29 2015

Rain remains confined to the far S-southeast forecast area. Band has moved little
and high resolution models hold precipitation in until early afternoon.
Upped probability of precipitation in this area through noon. Some breaks moving into the
far north however increased sky cover the remainder of the
morning.

Update issued at 701 am CDT Friday may 29 2015

Radar continues to show precipitation slowly moving out of the area. The
trailing edge of the precipitation extends from Kelliher Minnesota to Englevale
ND. Precipitation was moving to the southeast about 8 knots. No changes to
the current package.

&&

Short term...(today through saturday)
issued at 358 am CDT Friday may 29 2015

Water vapor loop indicated an upper level trough over man and will
move to the eastern Canadian coast by sun. Reinforcing trough over
Saskatchewan/man Sat will move into Ontario by sun. Then more zonal flow
across southern Canada for Sun night. Significantly cooler air will
move into the area this morning with first short wave.
High temperatures today will generally be in the fifties. Precipitable
water was around 1.4 inches in the southeast zones will shift south
and east today. Most place will have precipitable water under a
quarter of an inch by Sat morning.

Rain continues to fall over the south and east zones. Areal coverage
was decreasing. Flood warnings/advisories continue for some of the
southern zones this morning. Frontal boundary extends from bde to
Oakes ND. Frontal boundary was slowly moving southeast under 10
knots.



Long term...(saturday night through thursday)
issued at 358 am CDT Friday may 29 2015

(monday-thursday)...models remain in decent agreement
which means little change to previous thinking. Upper ridging will
over the region will gradually propagate eastward...placing this
area in SW flow aloft by Wed-thur. Cannot rule out precipitation at any
time given numerous upper waves either rounding the ridge early in
the period...or ejecting from the western coast trough later in the
period. The potential for severe thunderstorm activity (wed-thur)
will be the main hazard this period...although details very
uncertain. Temperatures will be near normal values.

&&

Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Saturday afternoon)
issued at 1235 PM CDT Friday may 29 2015

Main challenge for the tafs will be how fast the clouds thin out
this afternoon. Will go with the idea of middle to late afternoon with
winds dying down in the early evening. Then should have clear skies
and north-NE winds around 10 kts for the rest of the period.

&&

Fgf watches/warnings/advisories...
ND...none.
Minnesota...none.
&&

$$

Update...voelker
short term...hoppes
long term...tg
aviation...godon

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations