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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
643 am CDT Tuesday Jul 29 2014

Update...
issued at 643 am CDT Tuesday Jul 29 2014

Tweaked patchy fog grids as only a few spots have seen reduced
visibilities and only very briefly. Temperatures should recover quickly
this morning under mostly sunny skies.

&&

Short term...(today through wednesday)
issued at 318 am CDT Tuesday Jul 29 2014

Not much change to the pattern as northwesterly flow aloft
continues and high pressure remains over the northern plains. Will
have to watch the western counties were dew point depressions are
getting close to zero and winds have been light. Will include some
patchy fog mention through morning...mainly in the west and areas
in the southeastern valley where dew point depressions are the
lowest. Any fog should burn off quickly and highs this afternoon
will climb into the upper 70s...a few degrees warmer than
yesterday.

The northwesterly flow and surface high pressure will continue into
tonight and Wednesday. Temperatures will fall into the low to middle 50s and
with light winds we may again have to watch for some spots of
patchy fog formation. Highs on Wednesday should again be a few
degrees warmer as winds pick up just a bit and mix 850mb temperatures in
the teens c.

Long term...(wednesday night through monday)
issued at 318 am CDT Tuesday Jul 29 2014

Wednesday night through Thursday night...north to northwesterly
flow aloft and high pressure continue. Models show some signs of a
weak shortwave coming along the backside of the upper ridge late
Thursday. The NAM is the most bullish and has decent quantitative precipitation forecast over the
valley...but the GFS is dry and the European model (ecmwf) and Gem are less
impressive and further east. Placement of such minor disturbances
this far out is tough...so for now will just keep the 20 probability of precipitation we
have going for our northeast corner and monitor for now. Temperatures
should continue to moderate towards seasonal averages.

Friday to Tuesday...good agreement in consistency for the extended
with 500mb northwest flow aloft and slowly warming thermal profile as
western Continental U.S. Ridge influence felt by the weekend. Isolated pockets
of chance thunder through the weekend with best chance for convective
activity tied to ridge rider and possible frontal passage on Sunday.

&&

Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Wednesday morning)
issued at 643 am CDT Tuesday Jul 29 2014

VFR conditions will continue under high pressure. Light and
variable winds will steady out of the northwest at around 8 to 10
kts and then become light and variable again this evening.

&&

Fgf watches/warnings/advisories...
ND...none.
Minnesota...none.
&&

$$

Update...Jr
short term...Jr
long term...Jr/jk
aviation...Jr

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