Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1126 PM CDT Monday Aug 3 2015

issued at 1125 PM CDT Monday Aug 3 2015

No significant updates planned for this late evening.


Short term...(this evening through Tuesday night)
issued at 256 PM CDT Monday Aug 3 2015

The main forecast challenge will be precipitation chances which will pick
up again by Wednesday afternoon. As for now...looking at quiet northwest flow.
Little breezier conditions with some scattered-broken cumulus late this
afternoon should give way to clearing skies and light winds again
overnight. Went with min temperatures tonight a little cooler than
guidance. Tuesday should be very similar to today although winds
should be lower.

Long term...(wednesday through monday)
issued at 256 PM CDT Monday Aug 3 2015

Model differences remain with the Wednesday afternoon and overnight
potential precipitation event. American models were very consistent in
depicting the best chances at 18z between kbis and kabr. Then they
would drop these into eastern South Dakota into west central the
axis of better moisture. European model (ecmwf) shows the best chances at 18z Wednesday
over western ND...shifting through our entire forecast area Wednesday night. At this
point Storm Prediction Center has area in general thunder but would hope to see
better model consistency with this event. Not seeing a consistent
signal into Thursday either although overall trend seems drier. Will
leave some low precipitation chances to blend with adjacent offices
although it could very well be dry too.

Thursday night through Monday...guidance depicts a more active zonal
flow for the end of the week and upcoming weekend period.
Uncertainty exists in the timing of the short waves and
associated fropas...convective clusters. But the most opportune
time for pronounced cold frontal approach and passage looks like
Friday afternoon and evening. Low pressure likely to remain north
of border but increasing shear and forcing could come together for
severe event during this time frame. Weekend into Monday should be
dry most of the time so only marginal chance probability of precipitation maintained as
ripples move through. Maximum temperatures will depend on cloud
cover...daytime highs in the middle to upper 70s are
expected...values that are not far from seasonal averages.


Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Tuesday night)
issued at 1125 PM CDT Monday Aug 3 2015

Surface high pressure over the forecast area will keep winds light and
variable through midday Tuesday. Light easterly winds should
develop late in the day on Tuesday. Otherwise... expect fair
skies through the period.


Fgf watches/warnings/advisories...


short term...godon
long term...wjb/godon

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations