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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
641 PM CDT Monday may 4 2015

Update...
issued at 634 PM CDT Monday may 4 2015

Minimal changes to the forecast with this update as surface high
drifting east and return flow setting up overnight Valley West. In
the Minnesota pines the frost advisory headline is good with
prolonged light winds and clear skies allowing temperatures to fall into
the low to middle 30s.

&&

Short term...(this evening through Tuesday night)
issued at 255 PM CDT Monday may 4 2015

Forecast challenges concern frost tonight...hazardous fire weather
conditions and precipitation chances starting Tuesday night. Models coming
into a bit better agreement but still some differences in surface
low track which will affect precipitation potential so will stick with a
blend and National guidance.

For tonight surface high pressure will shift east setting up
modest return flow. Far NE forecast area will be the last to see this and
with a dry airmass in place and temperatures last night will issue
a frost advisory. Remainder of the forecast area should see enough mixing to
minimize frost potential.

Surface pressure gradient tightens up Tuesday. Moisture return
will be limited to southern areas later in the afternoon. With relative humidity
values holding in the middle 20s and winds of 15-20kts with stronger
gusts over the higher terrain and very dry fuels will need to
issue Fire Weather Watch for tomorrow afternoon. See the fire
weather section of this discussion for details. Otherwise with
fair amount of solar and warm advection temperatures should rise
above average most areas.

Models trending a bit slower on lifting precipitation northward into the forecast area
Tuesday night so limited best chances to after midnight.

Long term...(wednesday through monday)
issued at 250 PM CDT Monday may 4 2015

Although surface low tracks differ some still looking favorable
for respectable rain chances Wednesday into Thursday as shortwave
lifts through the region. It will not rain straight through however
maintained high chance/likely probability of precipitation through the period. T chances
still not very impressive so should be mainly showers.
Temperatures should remain fairly mild through the period.

For Thursday night through Monday...looks like there will be a couple of
waves rolling through the forecast area. The tail end of the first one will be
departing the forecast area to the east Thursday night so will maintain some lower
precipitation chances for this. Next one looks to mainly arrive late Sat
night and could affect the forecast area into Monday. Like the first wave this
one has the potential to bring better precipitation amounts with it...if it
holds true. Still a ways out so will continue to watch. Generally
looking at a cooler period with the rain chances.

&&

Aviation...(for the 00z tafs through 00z Tuesday evening)
issued at 634 PM CDT Monday may 4 2015

Sky clear tonight with vrb winds becoming south southeast as surface high
pressure drifts to the east and return flow develops. Winds will
begin to mix well late morning with gusts around 20kts.

&&

Fire weather...
issued at 250 PM CDT Monday may 4 2015

Critical fire weather conditions are possible Tuesday afternoon mainly
over the Devils Lake basin. Southeast winds will increase in this area to
around 20 miles per hour by afternoon...with gusts to 30 miles per hour. Relative humidity once again is
expected to be quite low...down to around 20 percent in the
afternoon. As a result...have issued a Fire Weather Watch for the
Devils Lake basin down through Barnes County. Relative humidity will also be low
farther east...but generally expect winds to be a bit lighter. Near
critical conditions may extend into the Red River though.

&&

Fgf watches/warnings/advisories...
ND...Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday
evening for ndz006-007-014-015-024-026-028-038.

Minnesota...frost advisory from 1 am to 8 am CDT Tuesday for mnz006-009-016-
017-024.

&&

$$

Update...jk
short term...voelker
long term...godon/voelker
aviation...jk
fire weather...makowski

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