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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
636 am CDT Tuesday Sep 1 2015

Update...
issued at 630 am CDT Tuesday Sep 1 2015

Getting some patchy dense fog in Minnesota lakes country...that
should burn off this morning. Have added some areas of fog here
and have a Nowcast out also...so not anticipating a dense fog
advisory at this time. No other changes needed this morning.

&&

Short term...(today through wednesday)
issued at 330 am CDT Tuesday Sep 1 2015

The main challenge will be temperatures then increasing chances for
convection late in the week and this weekend. Models are in very
good agreement with synoptic scale features.

For today...it will be dry with some morning fog mainly in
Minnesota lakes country. Temperatures should warm above normal once again
into the low and middle 80s.

For tonight...moisture will return to the region with some
elevated instability and a weak low level jet around 30kt. There could be
some isolated convection mainly in the north...although can/T rule
it out anywhere really. Since we had some low probability of precipitation in the
north...will maintain those and may need to add them in all areas
later today.

On Wednesday...middle level temperatures will warm and temperatures should warm
well into the 80s to around 90. Southerly winds will also increase
and it may become breezy.

Long term...(wednesday night through monday)
issued at 330 am CDT Tuesday Sep 1 2015

For Wednesday night and Thursday...expect continued dry and mild weather
with temperatures well above normal. The Mercury on Thursday should climb
into the low 90s in the west to around 90 in Minnesota. A strong
cap will also develop that should suppress any convection.

For Friday-Monday...the weather pattern will turn more unsettled
for the Labor Day weekend. Shortwave troughs within southwest flow
aloft will eject northeastward ahead of a broader trough which
will slowly progress eastward through early next week. These will
interact with a frontal zone that will likely be draped somewhere
NE-SW across the region...and in no hurry to move given the
southwest flow. Abundant moisture will be present...owing to days
of uninterrupted low-level southerly flow...with naefs precipitable waters
reaching near the 99th percentile for this time of year by late
Friday. While models continue to differ on details...periods of
showers and storms are expected with locally heavy rain and some
stronger storms possible (depending on cloud cover and frontal
position). Temperatures will depend on the position of surface boundary and
extent of clouds/precip.

&&

Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Wednesday morning)
issued at 630 am CDT Tuesday Sep 1 2015

We have areas of IFR/LIFR near some patchy dense fog near kbji
that should burn off after sunrise. Expect VFR conditions through
the period once the fog Burns off.

&&

Fgf watches/warnings/advisories...
ND...none.
Minnesota...none.
&&

$$

Update...dk
short term...dk
long term...dk/makowski
aviation...dk

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