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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
700 PM CST Thursday Nov 26 2015

issued at 658 PM CST Thursday Nov 26 2015

High pressure is over central ND at 00z. Got a couple areas of left
over stratocu which may take a while to go away....from Langdon-
Cando through devil slake to Valley City and the other around Bemidji
and Park Rapids. Elsewhere mainly clear. Will watch lows but going
forecast seems OK at this time. Tweeked sky cover some but otherwise no


Short term...(this evening through sunday)
issued at 330 PM CST Thursday Nov 26 2015

Pocket of cold air over southern Canada will shift east/southeast
tonight as high pressure settles overhead. Will tend to favor the
cool side of guidance tonight.

Split flow aloft will continue across North America with northern
stream over central and northern Canada and southern stream over the
states. Water vapor loop indicated a positive tilted trough from
Hudson Bay to eastern Montana. Some drying/darkening was occurring over
eastern Montana. The trough will move over the forecast area tonight and
Friday morning and will continue to move east. Another positive tilted
trough extended from Colorado to central California and will start to move into
the central and northern plains Sun afternoon.

Upper level ridge axis off the western Canadian coast will shift
into British Columbia. The upper ridge will broaden into central Canada through 84
hours. Some disturbances will ride the ridge but will stay far
enough north in Canada to not affect the area. Otherwise little or
no precipitation through sun.

Long term...(sunday night through thursday)
issued at 330 PM CST Thursday Nov 26 2015

Global models in fair agreement through the long range period. Upper
low currently over the SW US will begin to wobble across the Central
Plains early next week. Associated surface low to track along NE/Kansas
border before lifting NE to the Great Lakes. Based on surface low
track southern then eastern forecast area will be on northern edge of snow
shield so low/middle probability of precipitation warranted. Feature shifts east by middle week
with remainder of the period quiet. Little in the way of cold air
wrapping around low so temperatures through the period will range at
or a bit above average.


Aviation...(for the 00z tafs through 00z Friday evening)
issued at 658 PM CST Thursday Nov 26 2015

Dvl and bji taf sites are the most problematic as both areas in
MVFR ceilings. Expect gradual clearing of this overnight but it may
take a while. Most solid area is around dvl. Otherwise Fargo MVFR
ceilings should clear out early evening with a mainly clear sky
gfk/tvf. Once the stratocu does clear out it will be mainly clear
through Friday as north-northwest winds turn more southwest


Fgf watches/warnings/advisories...


short term...hoppes
long term...voelker

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